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Sunday, September 29, 2013

0-4, now lets be realistic (pay attention Colbert, you might learn something)

The way things are going, and by going I mean falling apart, we are easily looking at a top 5 pick.  As I said during the 4th round of the draft last year, were gonna miss that 3rd rounder we gave to the Browns.  And now, it really looks like Im right.  But if we stick to our guns (and listen to me), we can get out of this debacle next year.  (Hire me)  First, fire Haley.  (Hire me)  Second, ask Colbert what his plans are for "retirement".  (Hire me)  Third, have a meeting with Tomlin that if we dont make the playoffs in 2014, his deal will not be extended, and he will be a lame duck, year to year coach until he proves his worth again.  (Hire me)

Even after Foster left the game vs the Vikings, there was no reason (as there never was) to keep Adams at LT.  Why we swapped he and Gilbert in the first place has really only come down to one, gruesome, explanation by Colbert, "Hes left handed, and left handed people feel more comfortable on the left side".  Regardless if they actually have any talent?  Dip shit.  I hope after the bye we swap Gil back to LT and start Beachum on the right.  And after the season ends, hopefully with at least a handful of wins, we do this...


3 Jake Matthews, LT Texas A&M-  Adams cant do it, Beachum can but only at an average ability, and Tomlin wont let Gilbert do it?  So, much like how we always hope the Steelers draft a high round CB, here is our franchise Left Tackle.  Jake has the experience in the ZBS, the pedigree, the ability, and yes, even the bloodlines.  Just like in 2004 when we finally drafted a franchise QB, here is that refreshing feeling all over again.  (Yes, I would possibly pick Tajh Boyd, but I cant let me man crush get in the way)

35 Eric Ebron, TE UNC-  The Paulson experiment hasnt worked out very well, while I have to admit, DJ has stepped up as a receiver, though not as a threat.  While Haley tends to like a athletic pass catching TEs, here is a middle of the road TE in that size and ability, but with a nasty demeanor when in line blocking.  This is the kid that will take over for Heath when he hangs it up.  Superb hands, blocking and route running... and the boy has some serious ups too.

90 (3rd rd comp 1)  Jaylen Watkins, CB Florida- Yes, it is typical for me to draft a Gator, but while we ignored the school last year, it showed that may have been a mistake.  Heres what I figure, the Gators have 3 very viable options at CB in this draft, and all of them can play outside or inside at the nickel/dime.  While Jaylen will need to size up some to 190ish pounds, he is a dynamic CB that plays the run and the ball very well. 

91 (3rd rd comp 2)  Bryan Stork, OL Florida State-  If you think back a couple years to the 2009 NFL draft youll find an OL that we desperately wanted simply due to the fact that he has and could play everywhere along the oline.  The player Im talking about is the Seahawks current OC Max Unger.  And yes, I understand that Beachum has shown he can also fill in in most of the oline spots, but he hasnt shown he could hold a spot as a starter in one of them.  I believe Beachum is one of those guys that does alot well, but none of it great.  Stork on the other hand is seen by some as the best center in the country.  Im hoping the fact that he started at the spot for only this year holds him back.  This kid could allow Destro to slide to LG and easily fill in at RG.  But moreso, if we had injuries, he could fill in on demand.  We missed on Unger, and missed on Barrett Jones, but we cant stand by and let a 3rd one of these very rare, bright OLs pass us by.

109 DeVonte Parker, WR Louisville-  Bye Sanders.  Can you step up Wheaton?  Just in case you cant we need to find depth.  Moye should find a way into the personnel roles sooner or later, but we need a true #2 WR opposite AB.  I bet Bridgewater is stunned hes fallen this far.  But as a newcomer to the ACC, Parkers previous history has been vs subpar Big East teams.  He has the deadly combination of hands, height and speed.  Easily a deep threat, but also familiar with the route tree and comfortable going over the middle if needed.

143 Prince Shembo, LB Notre Dame-  To be honest I dont like ND.  I dont follow ND.  But when I see tape and read articles about "Prince" I tend to think of a rusty Timmons.  Hes a bigger OLB though has the speed to provide pressure, and with experience in a 30 front, has also flexed inside.  Hes probably gonna have a faster 40 time than JJ, though can sit behind Vince and Spence, learning the defense.

165 (5th rd comp 1)  Isaiah Lewis, SS Michigan State-  Whew, thank God, heres our tall safety!!  Haha, at 5'10 he might tower over The Shark, but as a former teammate of our new RB Bell, he has excelled in pass coverage at both safety spots.  Hes estimated to clock a 4.4 40, so as Tomlin (and new maybe Lake) prefer- speed speed speed.  Hes not as "roaming" as Shamarko, but he is a very good deep cover playing the top of the umbrella.  Troy to Shamarko and Clark to Lewis.  Golden is very good depth at all the 2ndary spots, as well as Cromartie Smith.  The safety position has now been totally revamped.

166 (5th rd comp 2)  Roderick McDowell, RB Clemson-  Rainey, Rainey, Rainey... how you left a door wide open for a scat back with return ability to finally step in.  Some say "Hot Rod" is a tougher CJ Spiller.  I think hes a mix of Spiller and what Rainey could have been.  Rod could easily spell downs for Bell, maybe in a thunder and lightning role, but more so as a 3rd down threat.  He keeps Tajh Boyd safe with his cut blocks, but also gets free in the flat for a deadly screen or check down.  And I havent even gotten to the kickoff and punt return ability.  Rod could finally allow AB to solely focus on the WR role and not worry about getting plastered when returning punts.

185 Kevin Norwood, WR Alabama-  Yup, 2 WRs.  Justin didnt do enough to make the 53 last year, and the other WRs that were cut earlier wont be a threat to return.  Step in Norwood.  While has has been a starter and at times looks to be the 2nd or 3rd target, he doesnt get as much attention as he could.  He has fought through some minor injuries, though he still possesses the size and speed to if nothing more than challenge Justin Brown.

209 Josh Mauro, DE Stanford-  I wasnt a fan of the Williams pick from Stamford.  Was it because I kept searching for him using "Stanford"?  Either way, heres a kid that has been in the 30 front for some time, and uses his hands and leverage very well.  While he isnt JJ Watt, he does have the same feel of a young Keisel.  And with Ziggy being a UDFA, and Da Beard getting another year older, we do need the depth.

Yes, I did not draft a 0 tech Nose Tackle.  I feel Steve is doing well holding down the middle of the dline, though we are in nickel and dime often (as the league dictates), therefore hes being replaced by Cam and Brett inside.  I also think Woods and Fangupo are fine as backups.  For now.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Week 4: CHICAGO BEARS at Detroit Lions

Couldn't ask for a better start.  Bears are 3-0.  And much to my delight, they have gotten there with the offense leading the way with 2 late offensive TDs in close wins, and one more to pull away last week from the Steelers.  Under Marc Trestman, the Bears definitely appear to be making the transition to an offensive team.  And while the defense has given up its share of big plays and points, they continue to make a huge mark every week by forcing a league-high 11 turnovers and scoring TDs on 3 of them.  The combination of an opportunistic defense and a competent offense has led to a perfect start to 2013.

Standing in the way of 4-0 is a familiar foe, the Detroit Lions.  The Bears have beaten the Lions 7 of the 8 times they've played with Jay Cutler as QB.  However, only 1 of the 5 wins in the last 3 years came by more than 5 points.  That win was a 37-13 blowout, but with 21 of those points scored by the Bears defense and special teams.  The one Bears loss came in 2011, on the road, on Monday Night Football, and in front of a crowd that was amped up by being on national TV for the first time in over a decade.  That frenzied crowd was a huge factor in the game, forcing a whopping 8 false starts on the offense and another on special teams.

That Detroit win also was pulled off by the only good Lions team the Bears have seen in the last several years.  This year's Lions look to be pretty solid also, so far.  As usual, the Lions still throw the ball all over the field.  Stafford is 2nd in the NFL in passing yards thru 3 games.  The matchup everyone will be watching is Charles Tillman vs. Calvin (because apparently Johnson is too busy doing press).  Last year, the Bears didn't give Tillman a whole lot of help on Megatron and he famously held him to 3 catches for just 34 yards the first time they met in 2012.  This year, with Peanut a little gimpy (and frankly struggling in coverage) I don't expect anywhere near that shutdown job.  Probably going to see something closer to the 6-95 that Calvin has averaged against the Bears in the other 7 games in the last 4 years.  Big games from AJ Green and Antonio Brown didn't kill the Bears, and neither will a big one from Calvin.  What could hurt though, is a big game from Reggie Bush.

The Bears catch a break with Nate Burleson's pizza delivery failure, as he actually leads the team in catches so far.  But the Lions will get both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell out in pass routes, where they have combined for over 300 yards thru 3 games.  The Lions will use Bush similar to how they used Jahvid Best a few years ago.  Best hurt the Bears with a big 88 yard run in the 1 Lions win in 2011.  He also hurt them in 2010 with a 45-yard run and 32-yard catch.  Bush also has a little history against the Bears, with 7 catches for 132 yards, and an 88-yard TD in the 2006 NFC Championship.  With the 2nd threat out for Detroit, the Bears may be able to cheat a little bit after doubling up on Calvin.  When the Lions line Bush up in the slot, look for the Bears to cover him with a CB (Jennings or Frey) or possibly bringing Wright down over the slot to try to get a bump on him before handing him off to the LBs.  But I expect Wright (and Conte) will be back in 2-deep a lot to prevent the big play the Bears have given up so many times early on this season.  It is imperative that the Bears get pressure from the front 4 in this one.  Stafford is pretty deadly vs. the blitz and Calvin Johnson or Bush in 1-on-1 coverage, with a single high safety, is pretty scary.

As for the Bears offense, I came away from the Steelers game thinking, "boy this offense seems to be able to score when they need to".  Two comeback wins and a late put-away TD when the offense had stalled for most of 2 quarters stand out to me.  But looking further into the stats, there may be something to "scoring when they need to".  I compiled the Bears stats when either tied or behind in a game so far this season.  Since they never trailed in Pittsburgh, and were only shortly tied at 0, I added the stats when the Steelers were within 4 points of the Bears.   In the stated situations, the Bears offense has run the ball 47 times for 223 yards, a 4.7 average.  In the air, Cutler has been 48 for 69 for 553 yards when his team is not in control of the scoreboard.  That's good for a 70% completion and over 8 yards per attempt.  All 6 of Cutler's TDs (and all 3 INTs to be fair) have come with the Bears trailing, tied or with the Steelers within striking distance.  Compare that to the Bears offense while in the lead (36-92, 2.6 ypc and 20-32, 140 yards, 0 TDs, 62.5%, 4.4 ypa) and I think that's a pretty telling sign that this offense may be better than anyone really knows just yet.

The offensive numbers certainly aren't gaudy at this point, but a middle-of-the-pack offense is more than the Bears have had in ages.  And the offense when trailing projects to a top 7 offense if they keep that approach all game.  As a guy that prefers an aggressive approach, I shared most Bears fan sentiments of disappointment not going for the kill in Pittsburgh, not going for a score before halftime last week, kicking on 4th down and short instead of going for it.  But the Trestman/Emery "Moneyball on the Gridiron" approach is to not beat yourself.  The Bears haven't taken chances when ahead.  They haven't had pre-snap penalties (2nd fewest penalties in NFL).  Trestman's confidence in his offense has meant not risking a stupid play for the sake of a few more points when your team is already in control. 

Most of this week, I have feared that this would be the week of the 1st loss.  And while that still may very well happen, I'm much more confident after looking at the above numbers.  I think the OL is well prepared to deal with this strong DL.  While Suh may get his share of hurries and maybe even a couple sacks, the key is not to have the all out jail-break from the DL like the Bears have had in the past.  In the first 3 weeks, Long had trouble with the Cincy inside pass rush (mostly Peko), Bushrod and Mills had trouble with Allen and Robison, and Mills and Slauson had trouble with Woodley and Keisel.  Yet, the Bears have only given up 3 sacks because Cutler has had room to step up or aside of the pressure on most occasions.  The Bears should be able to run vs. the Lions front 7.  Cutler has always had big games passing against them, despite the pressure he's faced.  And while Ford Field will undoubtedly be loud, there's NO chance the Bears have 8 pre-snap penalties again, ruining the majority of their drives. 

I see no reason why the Bears shouldn't win this game.  Big key will be mistakes.  The Lions are a consistent mistake team with penalties and turnovers.  The Bears have not shown to be mistake prone so far under Trestman.  A shootout is possible, but I think that actually favors the Bears, because the more Stafford puts it up, the more likely it is for the best turnover forcing team to do their thing.  A low-scoring close game also favors the Bears for obvious reasons.  But the defense has to play better or the Lions could make a statement against their division rivals. 

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Week 3: CHICAGO BEARS at Pittsburgh Steelers

Here it is!  The week circled on my calendar.  The Chicago boy trapped in Pittsburgh, gets a chance to watch his team take on Steelers and trash talk all his co-workers and Facebook friends!  With apologies to my co-blogger, this matchup could not only give me bragging rights around the water cooler at work, but also put the Steelers out of their misery by putting them in an insurmountable hole with an 0-3 start (though, this might be preferred with a draftnik to have early picks to play with).

Despite the early returns (Bears w/ 2 close wins vs. 2012 playoff teams, only the lowly Jags saving the Steelers from the offensive basement), this isn't going to be a game the Bears are going to win just by showing up.  Lost in all the talk of Mr. Fourth Quarter, Jay Cutler, and the Bears winning exciting games late is the fact that the defense hasn't been nearly as good as it needs to be so far.  While the Bears haven't skipped a beat in forcing the other team to turn the ball over and are middle of the pack in yardage allowed, they are the league's worst defense at getting off the field on 3rd downs so far.  And 2 of the 13 times they have succeeded at stopping 3rd down, they've allowed 4th down conversions.  The lack of success getting off the field can be directly attributed to a severe lack of a consistent pass rush. 

This is the week the Bears have to get off the field and do so by putting pressure on Ben Roethlisberger.  Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in converting 3rd downs on offense.  Their offensive line, frankly, looks a lot like the O-lines Bears fans saw for much of the last 5 years.  The Steelers' best OL is out for the season, and they have allowed tons of pressure this year and most of recent history.  Without Pouncey, the Bears SHOULD be able to get pressure up the middle and on the edge where a couple young guys are struggling (Adams and DeCastro) to protect the pocket.  Fittingly, those struggling linemen should be lined up directly across from Julius Peppers and Henry Melton, respectively, the Bears best and highest-paid defensive linemen, who have been almost non-existent so far in the early-going.  If there was ever a game the 2 stars of the D-Line (who basically had no preseason) to get going, it is this one with huge matchup advantages. 

Even if the Bears do get pressure on Roethlisberger, they have been killed in the past by not keeping contain on a mobile QB.  Russell Wilson basically took the Bears out of playoff contention last year by getting to the outside and either picking up key yardage with his legs or finding open receivers who got lost in coverage.  Just last week, Christian Ponder was able to do some of the same things, but to a much lesser extent.  While running isn't a concern with Big Ben, the latter is how he makes is money.  The Bears can't allow Ben to break free from pressure and find his quick WRs after being well-covered for 4-5 seconds.  I don't expect the Steelers to be able to run much on the Bears D.  They have been the worst run team in the NFL against 2 lesser run defenses so far.  But that run game could get a huge boost if TE, Heath Miller and RB Le'Veon Bell, who both practiced fully today, are able to go.  The addition of Miller in particular could give Roethlisberger some added comfort, though James Anderson has been masterful covering opposing TEs so far. 

Offensively, I expect more struggles than the first 2 weeks.  The offensive line will get a different look this week vs. a 3-4 defense and an array of exotic blitzes.  On early downs, the Steelers will gamble with run blitzes making it tough for Forte to find a hole.  If they are able to force 3rd and longs, the Steelers will send any and everybody, sometimes having no down linemen with 6-7 possible blitzers making it tough for the OL (especially a rookie right side) to read who's coming.  And of course, you always gotta know where #43 is.

While the Bears did face and dominate a 3-4 Chargers defense in the 2nd preseason game, the Steelers scheme is a completely different, more aggressive animal.  That being said, I'd expect the Bears to go back to a little of that playbook this week.  The big play was a 51 yard Forte run on a sweep led by a pulling tackle.  They will also run a lot of zone blocking, which I think could work better this week as both Bears guards really have done a great job when getting to the LB level.  That should be easier to do this week without a gap shooting DT in front of them and the LBs looking to fill.  Look for the Bears to run out of several passing formations.  The Bears showed a quick dive/draw out of the shotgun w/single back.  The Bears went 3 wide and motioned a TE or FB in to lead off tackle, mostly with counter action.  The formation that really caught my eye last week was flexing Bennett out a couple yards away from the line.  Bennett struggled in week 1 blocking Cincy's DEs, and has looked much better when matched on a linebacker.  Flexing him forces a LB or safety out of the tackle box, but also allows him to come in with a crack-back block to wall off a defender on an outside run.  The defender covering Bennett then either gets caught up in the interior traffic, blocked on the outside by a pulling lineman, or has to make a 1-on-1 open field tackle on Forte.  

When the Bears go to the air, they have to again know where #43 is.  He will freelance on blitzes with the Steelers hopeful Cutler will make a poor decision on the fly.  But also, Ike Taylor did a great job on AJ Green last week.  He will get Brandon Marshall on every snap that he's lined up on the outside of the formation....as he did when they faced off a couple years ago when Marshall was in Miami.  While there's no chance Cutler will shy away from throwing to Marshall, I expect a lot of short quick throws to get him the ball on the outside.  If they want to set up a big play, that's when they move Marshall down into the slot and hope Taylor doesn't follow.  Taylor on Marshall, though, means Alshon Jeffery has a mismatch vs. the other Steelers CB.  I wouldn't be surprised if Alshon is the leading receiver this week.  Steelers will focus on checkdowns to Forte, and Bennett's big Week 2 will get him a little extra attention this week. 

The Bears should have a huge special teams advantage.  Better kicker, punter, and returner.  If Hester is allowed to touch the ball several times like last week, he will make a couple huge plays again.  Tough place to play for your first road game, with exotic blitzes, rookie linemen, and against a team desperate to save their season.  But the Bears win this game if they protect the football.  The Steelers shouldn't be able to score enough points against what should be a good defense.  But the Bears shouldn't expect 30 again like last week.  The key is to not give them any help.  Minnesota got 14 non-offensive points last week, and another 3 on fumble on their side of the field.  With the Bears having a clear edge on offense and special teams, the only way the Steelers win is if their defense gets them points. 

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Week 2: BEARS vs. Minnesota Vikings

After 1 week, the Bears "are who we thought they were".  The "bend but don't break" defense, did a lot of bending, but when it came down to it, they were their usual opportunistic selves, with a pair of INTs and a key forced fumble when the game could have swung the other way.  What was not the same was that Jay Cutler was left pretty clean with 0 sacks taken and very few hits allowed.  And while Brandon Marshall was again the leading receiver, Jeffery and M. Bennett chipped in with huge timely catches and a substantial amount of targets to take the pressure off Jay to force it to his star WR.  When all was said and done, the Bears won their 4th straight season opener.

Now onto Week 2.  After the most recent 2 of those 1-0 starts, the Bears have done an about face in the very next week, and lost the 2nd game of each season in ugly fashion.  In the last 2 week 2s (also in new offenses), Cutler has barely been able to complete 40% of his passes and has thrown 4 INTs (all vs. GB in 2012), while the Bears have suffered double digit defeats.

As I predicted, the formerly 10-6 playoff participant Vikings, struggled out of the gate.  Frankly, on paper, the Vikings don't look like a very good team.  One of the bottom 3 passing efficient teams in the league last year.  Bottom 1/4 in the league defensively vs. the pass.  Gave the ball away more than they took it from their opponents.  The Vikings made the playoffs last year with smoke and mirrors.  But where there are smoke and mirrors, there is fire.  And that fire is Adrian Peterson!  I'm not going to waste my time and say, "oh the Bears gotta stop Peterson to win".  They really don't have to.  While Peterson does have the ability to beat them alone, the key is not allowing Ponder to make easy, comfortable, and short passes to give them any type of balance.  While Ponder only threw for 91 yards in the Vikings' win over the Bears last year, he was able to convert 5 3rd downs by throwing short passes and having his receiver run to get the first down.  The last 2 came on a key 4th quarter drive that started at their own 1 yard line and led to them flipping the field and taking precious time off the clock with a 14-point lead.  Like AJ Green last week, Peterson will get his yards.  The key is going to be making the Vikes one-dimensional.  Greg Jennings and Kyle Rudolph have hurt the Bears in the past, but if the Bears keep them in check (especially on 3rd down), they win this game provided they don't turn the ball over a ton. 

On offense, I'll be interested to see how the Vikes defense Brandon Marshall.  The typical gameplan is to make someone else on the Bears beat you, but the Minnesota D allowed 250 yards and 22 catches on 37 targets to Marshall last year, when he was the only option the Bears had.  Plus, Minnesota just game-planned to stop Calvin Johnson.  They shut him down, but watched the rest of the team pick them apart, including a whopping 168 yards receiving from the RB position.  Even without Bush's 77 yard catch-and-run, that's still a significant number.  Add in a 22-yarder to the backup TE and the middle of the field looks to be there for the taking this weekend, even if they focus on taking B out of the game. 

Matt Bowen detailed in the Tribune exactly what I was thinking would be successful for the Bears.  Marshall's presence vs the Vikings' Cover 2 should leave the middle of the field open for Jeffery in the slot, Bennett up the seam, and Forte in the short middle.  Also, watch for recent pickup, Dante Rosario to be a factor in the 2 TE set.  The Bears most successful formation in Week 1, was the ace formation (single back), with 2 WRs and double TEs.  They were able to run and throw out of this formation, and that's with Bennett having a below average run blocking game and the 2nd TE (Maneri and Adams) being non-threats as receivers.  Rosario can really get down the field and should open up things a little more in the ace grouping.

The "experts" are all picking the Bears in this one.  It makes sense.  The Bears are coming off a big win vs. an AFC contender, the Vikings are coming off a double-digit division loss.  The Bears are at Soldier Field, where Minnesota has won just 1 time since 2001.  But the desperate team is always very dangerous in the NFL.  An 0-2 start in the division would basically kill any hopes they have for a division title.  That being said, I don't think the Vikings had much hope to begin with and the Bears have no business losing this game.  The only way they do is if the offense is reckless with the ball (pick 6 and INT return inside the Chi 5 in the 21-14 loss last year).  I think this year, Cutler has too many weapons and the improved protection to ensure that the team doesn't turn the ball over excessively.  

Saturday, September 7, 2013

Week 1: CHICAGO BEARS vs. Cincinnati Bengals

After 252 days of offseason, opening day for the 2013 Chicago Bears is finally upon us!  The new look Bears open the season with a bang, facing a team considered an AFC favorite by some, the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bears are probably going to be pretty status quo on the defensive side of the ball.  9 of 11 starters return, different coordinator, but the same language and scheme will be used.  While I won't allege that the Bears will score 10 TDs on defense, but they still should get plenty of turnovers and put the offense on short fields more consistently than any other team in the league.

The matchup everyone is watching for will be Bengals stud WR, AJ Green vs. Charles "Peanut" Tillman.  Peanut was the best CB in football last year, IMO.  Even with a record breaking number of forced fumbles last year, Tillman showed the world how good he is by basically shutting down Calvin Johnson, who had almost 2000 yards against everyone else he faced last season.  While Green isn't as good as Megatron, he does pose some different challenges for Peanut.  He's a little twitchier and Tillman won't be able to play his physical style as much against him, because Green knows he can't win those matchups (whereas Calvin could, but didn't).  I'd imagine the Bears will play a similar gameplan though, with Tillman crowding at the line and then getting safety help over the top on every necessary play.

Green will get his stats, but the Bears are going to force someone else to beat them thru the air.  The thing I do worry about is Cincinnati has a ton of bodies to throw out there to give the Bears several different looks.  I was a big Sanu fan out of Rutgers and he looks to be starting to find a role in the offense in Cincy.  They also have Marvin Jones, another recent draft favorite of mine, to potentially take the top off the defense on the outside.  But the real concern has to be the inside.  Jermaine Gresham is effectively, the Bengals #2 receiver.  He provides a tough matchup, though isn't a huge difference maker at the TE position like guys like Gronkowski or Graham.  But this year, Gresham has some help to muck up the middle.  The Bengals drafted TE, Tyler Eifert in the 1st and RB, Giovani Bernard in the 2nd.  Both figure to be huge factors in the passing game between the numbers.  Fortunately for the Bears, this is an area they have been fine at in the past and look to have improved this offseason.  James Anderson is widely regarded as one of the top pass covering LBs in the league, and has shown just that so far in the preseason.  The Bengals though, will try to take advantage of rookie, Jon Bostic (when he's out there) and Major Wright, who can be liabilities in coverage.  Worth noting is the fact that Andy Dalton has typically struggled vs. strong pass defenses so far in his career.  Last year, Dalton played 4 games vs. teams top 10 in defense vs. the pass (where the Bears have been each of the last 2 years).  Dalton completed about 55% of his passes with just 2 TDs and 5 INTs.  As a rookie, Dalton threw 10 of his 13 INTs against playoff teams with top pass defenses.  Both seasons ended with terrible showings in the playoffs vs. a strong Houston pass D each time.

I don't expect the Bengals to be able to do anything special in the run game.  The Bears have long been a strong run D and frankly, the "Lawfirm" isn't that good of a runner.  Bernard could cause problems with quickness, but I think this Bears D is faster than last year with Urlacher on his last legs.  A huge factor to the pass rush will be if LT, Andrew Whitworth is unable to go this week for the Bengals.  I'd take my chances with Julius Peppers against most starters, with a backup in there, he could have a great opener. 

Offensively, this is a good test for the Bears to see if Trestman holds true to his west coast principles.  The revamped Bears OL gets possibly the best D-line this league has to offer right off the bat.  Rookies Kyle Long and Jordan Mills were excellent on the right side in preseason, but they will see a ton of Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, and the league's best DT, Geno Atkins.  So, the key will be getting the ball out of Cutler's hands quickly, because frankly, there's no way the Bears can consistently block this front 4 for very long periods of time. 

But if you can get past the front 4, that's where the Bengals can be exploited.  Cincy has maybe the slowest group of LBs in the league, including James Harrison, who is now over 35 and playing in the 4-3 for the first time in his career.  Last year, the Bengals LB corps was taken advantage of to the point of being 22nd in the league in yards given up to the opposing TE.  They also gave up a ton of catches to RBs out of the backfield as their LBs simply cannot stay with any kind of speed in the flat or down the middle of the field.  Conversely, the Bengals gave up the 3rd fewest yards to WRs last year.  So again, Trestman's vow to get players other than Marshall involved in the passing game is imperative right away.  Marshall and Jeffery have tough matchups vs. a pair of very strong CBs.  But you can throw all day on Maualuga, Burfict, and whoever the starter of their mediocre strong safeties will be. Forte and Martellus Bennett will be key factors in the passing game.  Worth noting, Cutler has been outstanding early and has thrown for at least 300 yards in all but 1 of his 6 career Week 1 starts.

In the run game, again you have to exploit the lack of speed on the second level.  For the last 2-3 years, the Bears have really been a superb team running the ball outside the tackles.  Pulling guards, sometimes tackles (see long Forte run in preseason) has paved the way for huge gains in the recent past.  And while it was the Raiders the Bears dominated a couple weeks ago, the new zone blocking scheme gets Forte on the edge, which is something the Bengals really struggled with vs. Houston and Arian Foster.

The Bengals are one of the few teams in the league that can matchup with the Bears in the return game.  They have very dangerous punt and kickoff returners, so the Bears coverage teams need to play well also.  Special teams may be close to a wash, so this game will come down to the main 2 phases of the game, between 2 teams that, I think, are very similar.  Both teams have big-time WRs, with role players trying to find their niche in the offense.  The Bears have the better RB.  The Bengals have the better, more experienced OL and TE.  Both teams have strong front 4s and back 4's.  But the Bears have better LBs, though there are 2 new guys here.  I'm expecting a close game.  Bears will win if they can keep the pressure off of Cutler and get Dalton to turn the ball over on defense.  The Bengals will win if they can exploit matchups in the middle of the field and stop the Bears run game, forcing them into 3rd and longs and becoming 1-dimensional. 

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Monday, September 2, 2013

2013 Chicago Bears Seaon Outlook

It's finally here!  The 2013 NFL season starts this week!  And me being the eternal optimist, I have very high expectations for my Chicago Bears!

Prevailing thought seems to be that nobody knows what to expect from the Bears.  I think the media sees a team that didn't make the playoffs last year, fired its well respected coach, and is going thru a 4th offensive coordinator in the last 5 years.  However, what I see is a 10-win team with a great, opportunistic defense that would have been a playoff team last year with an offensive scheme and playcalling resembling anything close to NFL caliber.

Lovie Smith and most of his defensive staff are gone, but 9 of the 11 defensive starters are back.  And the good thing about having a veteran defense is that the seed has already been planted in them.  The Bears have looked like the same defense that scored 9 TDs last year, leading the NFL in turnovers forced in the preseason.  Maybe losing Lovie's motivation, Urlacher's leadership, and gaining a year of age is going to slow the defense down a little, but there's no reason to believe there will be a significant dropoff.  Even if the 30-somethings (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings) go from playing at an elite level to just merely "good", the Bears still have pro-bowler, Henry Melton in his prime.  Also, players like Wootton, Paea, McClellin, Wright and Conte look to be on the upswing.  Wootton is 100% healthy.  Paea quietly may have been the best player on the defense in the preseason.  McClellin has shown flashes.  Conte looks to have taken that next step and seems to be quicker to react to the ball, with a pair of INTs and a few pass breakups in the preseason.  Additionally, James Anderson appears to be a much better pass defender than Nick Roach, though admittedly, Anderson isn't a great run defender.  Starting a rookie at MIKE LB is a concern to some, as Bostic has been a little slow on his run keys and getting depth in his zone coverage, but he is surrounded by a strong front 4, a pro-bowl WLB, and a SS that excels at stopping the run.  Bostic will make some mistakes, but for the most part, I feel like the team around him can cover up for him until he gets used to the speed of the game.  One concern may be the depth on defense as 9 of the projected backups are either rookies or 2nd year players.  But that depth also includes DJ Williams and Zach Bowman who have a wealth of starting experience under their belts.

Offensive is what will determine if this team can win the division and go on a deep playoff run, the way I think they can.  And let's face it, this is all about the passing game.  The run game will be fine.  It has been strong in preseason.  It was good enough last year.  But the one thing that has stood out to me the last few years is the fact that, Earl Bennett's screen to the house aside, the Bears get very little YAC....yards after catch.  In the dreaded days of Hester as the #1 WR, the lack of YAC was due to the fact that neither Hester or Knox could beat press coverage enough to get in the open field where they could use their great speed.  Last year, it was simply a lack of route diversity and creativity to get guys open.  There were very few crossing routes, scrapes, designed picks, and clearouts in the playbook.

Brandon Marshall, routinely a top 5-7 WR (top 20 overall) in terms of YAC pre-Chicago, was 30th overall last year.  And frankly, most of those yards seemed to be his pure strength and ability to break tackles.  Overall, the Bears as a team were 31st in yards after the catch.  They have routinely been in the bottom 1/4 of the league in the Cutler era, which has not been his doing.  And in today's NFL, you don't throw for 4,000 yards by just chucking the ball deep.  Your QB gets 4,000 yards by getting the ball out of his hands and allowing his WRs to get him "cheap" yardage, running with the ball already in their hands.  As an example, in 2011, Tom Brady threw for over 5200 yards.  Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez were all in the top 10 in YAC.  Almost 2000 of his yards came while Brady was watching his guy run with the ball....and that's only to those 3.  In 2012, less than 1/2 (48%) of Brady's passing yards came from him throwing the ball in the air.  For comparison, Cutler was at 56%, and with Forte being the 2nd leading receiver, many of those came on dumpoffs, which are obviously not as productive than a run after catch when the ball is thrown further down the field.

In comes the West Coast Offense.  While not as in vogue as it was years ago, every team typically run some WCO concepts in its base formations.  The WR screen we grew to love (or is it loathe?) in the days of Gary Crowton as OC, is a staple play of the WCO (just not the only play, Crowton!).  But also, the west-coast offense includes things foreign to recent Bears OC's such as quick slants, rollouts, TE seams.  These play designs allow the QB to get the ball out of his hands, not only to slow down a pass rush, but also to simply get yards by creating situations in which the receiver has to only beat 1 guy in order to pick up a big gain (see opening drive completion to Jeffery in Oakland).  These type of concepts also opens up double moves and the deep passing game as the DL will be less focused on getting to the passer if the ball is typically gone before they have a chance. 

YAC will be the key in determining whether the Bears offense is sufficient or not.  In a league where Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, and rookies have come into the league to throw for 4,000....there's no reason why Jay Cutler shouldn't at least be sniffing that number.  Last time Cutler was in the WCO, he threw for 4,500+ in Denver.  Also was the last time he didn't get sacked a ton of times.  I have no reason not to have faith that an improved OL, improved WR talent, and a real offensive gameplan will get Cutler to the 3,800-4,200 passing yards threshold.  And if that happens with a sufficient running game and an opportunistic defense, the Bears will surprise many and be one of the top teams in the league this year.