MARC TRESTMAN!
Most Bears fans see the initials C.F.L. after his name and fear that Emery really scraped the bottom of the barrel for this hire. But what Emery really did is think outside the box for a strong offensive minded head coach.
Trestman's resume is definitely strong enough to be an NFL head coach. Known as a QB "guru", Trestman has been sought out by several college QBs looking to refine their abilities before the NFL draft. He has several years of experience as a QB coach and an offensive coordinator. His claim to fame is having several seasons of success with some otherwise mediocre QB talent. Guys like Bernie Kosar, Scott Mitchell, Jake Plummer, and Rich Gannon had their best seasons with him either as OC or QB coach. While plenty of the other 13 known candidates interviewed for the Bears HC position have been successful offensive coordinators in the NFL, Trestman is the only one who also came with a full season of head coaching experience. While that experience did come north of the US border, it also came with huge success. Trestman led the Montreal Alouettes to the Canadian version of the Superbowl in each of his first 3 seasons, winning the last two. In 2009 and 2010, the QB of his team won back-to-back MVP awards as his team hoisted back-to-back Grey Cups. Trestman was interviewed for the Colts job before the 2012 season, and really impressed with his interviewed. So much so that he was on the radar of the Bears and Browns this offseason and ultimately was able to land the job as the 14th coach of the Chicago Bears.
Admittedly, Trestman wasn't my first choice. I worried about his now long absence from the NFL. And frankly, I worried that every other team wasn't swooning over him like they were for Mike McCoy and other NFL assistants. But he definitely wasn't at the bottom and I preferred him to guys like Bruce Arians and Pete Carmichael Jr. I am very intrigued by what type of offense Trestman may bring to the table. Could be pretty innovative with some of the Canadian intricacies coming
into play. They only have 3 downs to get 10 yards up there so, I don't
think there's any fear of a 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense. His
pass plays are probably either A) quicker to get the ball in an
athlete's hand to run with the ball or B) have routes going further down
the field. Also, because of the width of the field, I'd assume Trestman can get really creative with spreading the field.
Of maybe equal importance, is who the head coach fills out his coaching staff with. While guys like Matt Cavanaugh and a couple of the Canadian tag-alongs leave a lot to be desired, the main assistants appear to be very strong. Aaron Cromer is the offensive coordinator/OL coach. Cromer comes from the blueprint Saints offense. He helped to build an OL with 5 different players who went to a probowl. He also was chosen as the interim coach for the 1st 6 games of the season, with all the suspensions, which I think really says a lot about him. While Trestman is probably going to be the guy designing the offense, I like the fact that Cromer can possibly add 2 cents from Sean Payton's amazing offensive mind.
The Bears did lose a couple very strong assistants in defensive coordinator, Rod Marinelli and the best special teams coach in the business, Dave Toub. But they replaced them with Mel Tucker and Joe DeCamillis. Tucker will allow the Bears to keep things pretty similar on defense coming from a Jags team that ran a similar Cover-2 style scheme. Maybe with better talent and athletes, Tucker will play a little more aggressively which I think can only help. Tucker will be a future NFL coach, maybe as soon as 2014. But hopefully, while the Bears have him, they will continue to be a top unit in the league. DeCamillis is just a small step down from Toub and the Bears should be able to continue to hold a competitive edge over most special teams they face on a weekly basis. The Bears were also able to keep 2 key parts of the defensive staff in DL coach, Mike Phair (worked closely with Marinelli in his area of expertise) and DB coach, Jon Hoke, who coached 2 probowl CBs and has done a pretty good job developing Major Wright and Chris Conte at the safety positiions. There should be little dropoff on the defensive side.
But let's face it, this team's success will depend on the offense. And the Bears got an offensive guy to lead the team. By all accounts, Trestman is a brilliant, creative offensive mind. Jay Cutler has expressed an eagerness to work with the new offensive staff and take his game to the next level. The key to the future of the Bears will be whether or not Trestman has lost his touch or not at the NFL level. Cutler is probably the most talented QB he has ever worked with. If he can make Rich Gannon a league MVP, I shudder to think how good he can make Cutler.
This blog is solely used to provide both Steelers and Bears fans with a very realistic look at their teams upcoming possible draft picks.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Colbert turned a leaf...
Eddie Bouchette's article Thursday January 17th quotes Colbert saying that "no position is off the table this year in the draft or free agency". Now, for those of you that are Steeler fans, ever since we drafted Ben in 2004 Colbert has always said "everything is open other than QB and TE".
This caught be totally off guard. Now, there is a part of me that attaches this article to Ed's other one that says "were gonna let all of our FAs test the market" and that "the 2012 roster will be totally different than the 2013 one". This could mean a swap to a 4-3. Yes, it could. But if it hasnt happened yet, then I dont think it will for awhile.
That said, I officially accept your challenge Kevin, and have built a mock this evening that has open doors all around.
Its late, so here is the short story for now...
This caught be totally off guard. Now, there is a part of me that attaches this article to Ed's other one that says "were gonna let all of our FAs test the market" and that "the 2012 roster will be totally different than the 2013 one". This could mean a swap to a 4-3. Yes, it could. But if it hasnt happened yet, then I dont think it will for awhile.
That said, I officially accept your challenge Kevin, and have built a mock this evening that has open doors all around.
Its late, so here is the short story for now...
17 Ertz- in my opinion the best TE in the draft.
47 Dysert- talk about Ben Jr. Wow. Ive also read he has the best deep ball in the draft.
79 Rogers- If you take Julius Jones and squish him with AJ Green, you might have something like this kid. An injury and maybe an attention issue lets him fall alittle.
111 Gillislee- you know I gotz ta have muh Gatahs yo!!! Hes a beast with speed and sufficient power.
143 Swearinger- yes, I love the SEC. But the few games Ive seen of the Gamecocks (DeShawn has prob seen more) I cant help but watch this kid.
175 Williams- I read recently there are in upwards of 20+ hybrid de/olbs in this draft. I found at least 12+ after a quick look. Kansas State had an exciting offense this year, but they also had a serious D. This kid isnt known for dripping into coverage much, but he can attack the QB with the best of them.
207 Francis- typical Tomlin. Lets wait till the late rounds for a NT. But this kid if my diamond in the rough. He almost quit when being moved all over the Terps front 4 until they switched to a 3 front and stuck his big ass in the middle. 6'5 320. Big dawg.
227 Turnley- Tomlins local boy pick. We also need someone with serious position flexibility. Ryan has played the entire inside (bye bye Bruno) but has the size to at least play RT.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Safety or Nose Tackle... THAT is the question.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have the 17th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. And with that pick they could fill a number of needs, but its the degree of each need that is the issue. Safety and Nose Tackle look to be at the top of that list. At Safety we have Clark who has 1 more year left on his deal. The same for Troy. Troy also has been injured more than hes played over the past 3 years. Who do we have behind them? Eh, not much. Will Allen did ok this year for Troy, but hes barely average. Cromartie-Smith has had 3 years to bump Mundy (that shoulda been easy), and hasnt. Mundy sucks. Robert Golden might be that gem UDFA we tend to find once a year, but he played more Nickel than any time at Safety. Hes flexible, thats a plus. The game didnt look to big for him either. Also a plus. But thats the list at safety folks. 2 are old, 1 is old and often injured, and the rest are either questions at best, or suck. Hi Mundy.
So, at Nose Tackle- We have Yum Yum for maybe another year (he may see greener grass on the other side, but at 36 I think its crab grass), but he restructured the end of his 3 year deal this year. And is coming an injury. McLendon has built up in size and power, but only had a handful of snaps. Why? LeBeau is old and narrow-minded? Thats my opinion anyhow. After them we have Ta "The Drunk" Amu and newly acquired pure NT Fangupo. Im betting Fangupo was brought on to challenge The Drunk's final year of his rookie deal. Sometimes theres not much difference between a 4th rounder and a UDFA. Sometimes the 4th rounder was OVERVALUED at draft time and the UDFA was missed by the scouts. And if Hampton is a cap casualty (a very good possibility), then we have 2 UDFAs and The Drunk at NT.
So which is it folks? S or NT? If you look at the draft you will see that safety is deeper than NT. As usual. However, what is even more rare than a stud NT is a safety that can play close to the level of Troy. Not a Troy clone per say, but certainly a 1A status. There are 2 of those, 1 of which is coming off an injury and isnt nearly as position flexible as the other. The other plays like Troy, and tackles better.
Ok, so its getting late, heres the final breakdown- Jesse Williams NT Alabama or Matt Elam S(DB) Florida. Ill tell you why I like JW over John Jenkins another time, as well as why I love (yup, love) Elam over Reid then too. But dems da choice kids. We can get another stud NT in the 2nd round in Slyvester Williams (no relation... I think) from UNC. Hes almost as flexible as Jesse, though Ive never seen him line up at the 5 tech, nor at FB. Haha And there are a few other above average safeties in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but I strongly feel we would be settling for them.
Long story short- as I see it now, on January 8th 2013, with the 17th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select...
17 Matt Elam, S Florida (we picked Troy 16th BTW. Im just sayin. He can also play either safety as well as corner. Not just Nickel, but outside when/if needed)
47 Sylvester Williams, NT UNC (biggie that takes up space. Can play 1 tech in 43 as well)
79 Stepfan Taylor, RB Stanford (heres our starting RB of the future. Doesnt have that final gear speed-wise, but thats what Rainey's for)
111 Gerald Hodges, LB PSU (92 staying or going? Any real starter behind him? Can Spence move forward after destroying his knee? How about a kid that can play both outside AND/OR inside?? Heres one.)
143 Michael Williams, TE Alabama (I told my co-author MW is a bigger, "darker", Heath. Hahaha Just gotta convince Haley of that. I bet Kirby is 100% behind this pick. I hope Todd doesnt think Mike is too big. Didja watch the NCAA Champ game???)
175 Sanders Commings, DB Georgia (the kid can play anywhere in the 2ndary. And has hands too. Or stickum)
207 TJ Moe, WR Mizzou (fast slot WR, see Welker or Edelman)
227 Ryan Turnley, OL Pitt (a bigger more position flexible OL than Legursky. Can play anywhere in the front 5)
So, at Nose Tackle- We have Yum Yum for maybe another year (he may see greener grass on the other side, but at 36 I think its crab grass), but he restructured the end of his 3 year deal this year. And is coming an injury. McLendon has built up in size and power, but only had a handful of snaps. Why? LeBeau is old and narrow-minded? Thats my opinion anyhow. After them we have Ta "The Drunk" Amu and newly acquired pure NT Fangupo. Im betting Fangupo was brought on to challenge The Drunk's final year of his rookie deal. Sometimes theres not much difference between a 4th rounder and a UDFA. Sometimes the 4th rounder was OVERVALUED at draft time and the UDFA was missed by the scouts. And if Hampton is a cap casualty (a very good possibility), then we have 2 UDFAs and The Drunk at NT.
So which is it folks? S or NT? If you look at the draft you will see that safety is deeper than NT. As usual. However, what is even more rare than a stud NT is a safety that can play close to the level of Troy. Not a Troy clone per say, but certainly a 1A status. There are 2 of those, 1 of which is coming off an injury and isnt nearly as position flexible as the other. The other plays like Troy, and tackles better.
Ok, so its getting late, heres the final breakdown- Jesse Williams NT Alabama or Matt Elam S(DB) Florida. Ill tell you why I like JW over John Jenkins another time, as well as why I love (yup, love) Elam over Reid then too. But dems da choice kids. We can get another stud NT in the 2nd round in Slyvester Williams (no relation... I think) from UNC. Hes almost as flexible as Jesse, though Ive never seen him line up at the 5 tech, nor at FB. Haha And there are a few other above average safeties in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but I strongly feel we would be settling for them.
Long story short- as I see it now, on January 8th 2013, with the 17th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select...
17 Matt Elam, S Florida (we picked Troy 16th BTW. Im just sayin. He can also play either safety as well as corner. Not just Nickel, but outside when/if needed)
47 Sylvester Williams, NT UNC (biggie that takes up space. Can play 1 tech in 43 as well)
79 Stepfan Taylor, RB Stanford (heres our starting RB of the future. Doesnt have that final gear speed-wise, but thats what Rainey's for)
111 Gerald Hodges, LB PSU (92 staying or going? Any real starter behind him? Can Spence move forward after destroying his knee? How about a kid that can play both outside AND/OR inside?? Heres one.)
143 Michael Williams, TE Alabama (I told my co-author MW is a bigger, "darker", Heath. Hahaha Just gotta convince Haley of that. I bet Kirby is 100% behind this pick. I hope Todd doesnt think Mike is too big. Didja watch the NCAA Champ game???)
175 Sanders Commings, DB Georgia (the kid can play anywhere in the 2ndary. And has hands too. Or stickum)
207 TJ Moe, WR Mizzou (fast slot WR, see Welker or Edelman)
227 Ryan Turnley, OL Pitt (a bigger more position flexible OL than Legursky. Can play anywhere in the front 5)
Friday, January 4, 2013
Bears Coaching Search
Before I get into my plan for the offseason (which almost certainly won't be close to what the Bears actually do), I figure it would be wise to put my thoughts out there on the Bears coaching candidates.
First, it looks like the Bears will NOT be getting Andy Reid, Chip Kelly, or Bill O'Brien....which I see as all being good things. Reid is basically the bizarro Lovie Smith. Always has a good/productive offense. Goes thru defensive coordinators like Lovie did OCs. Several successful years with no rings and only 1 trip to the Superbowl to show for it. Kelly will be fun to watch coach in the NFL. But Chicago is not the place. He needs to go to a young team that needs the hope and enthusiasm that he brings. He also probably needs a team with multiple uniform options. O'Brien was an interesting candidate, given his experience in the Patriots offense, but Josh McDaniels/Charlie Weis appears to have been the masterminds there. As for the rest...
- Keith Armstrong, Falcons special teams coach. I'm not going to claim to know much about him, but he does satisfy the Rooney Rule right off the bat. Falcons have a decent special teams unit, and he was the Bears ST guy from 1997-2000, so he does have a ton of coaching experience. Going to assume this was a "token" interview and he's not a viable candidate.
- Joe DeCamillis, Cowboys special teams coach. He's another very experienced coach, having been in charge of special teams for the majority of seasons since 1988. Only 47 years old. Well respected, but best known for being badly hurt when the Cowboys practice facility collapsed a few years ago. Again, assuming this was a nice guy getting a chance to interview for his dream job.
- Pete Carmichael Jr, Saints Offensive Coordinator. You see "Saints offense" as a Bears fan and you immediately think "YES, I want some of that in Chicago". But Carmichael is far from a no-brainer hire. In fact, plenty of Saints fans despise the guy. This year was his chance to really shine with Payton leaving him all the playcalling duties. And while the Saints still led the league in passing and put up plenty of points, his playcalling left a lot to be desired. Saints fans cite his 65/35 pass/run ratio, and he took what was the 6th best running team in 2011 and took them down to 25th. Granted nobody is Sean Payton, but I think Jr. lost some of his luster this year, and I question his ability to be the guy to institute a strong offense in the Windy City.
- Mike Sullivan, Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator. It was reported tonight that Sullivan's interview went about twice as long as planned with the Bears. While he is an offensive guy that has worked with Eli Manning, he was his QB coach the year he led the league with 25 INTs in 2010. Sullivan did lead Josh Freeman to a strong middle of the season, but Freeman finished the year with 5 straight games under 56% completion. He also had back-to-back 4 INT games in this stretch and got shut out against a Saints defense that allowed the most yards in NFL history from scrimmage. He has a similar military background to GM Phil Emery. And I'll go on record to say that if he is hired, Sullivan would be as underwhelming a hire as Emery was last year. The Bears are the only team Sullivan has an interview schedule with.
- Mike McCoy, Broncos Offensive Coordinator. May be my favorite candidate at the moment. Him having several interviews this weekend justifies my desire for him to be the next Bears head coach. I may be jumping the gun here, but I think he can be the Bears version of Sean Payton. Like Payton, McCoy was a former CFL and WFL QB who dabbled in the NFL for a season. Only 40 years old, but he's held various positions on offense, working with some pretty good offensive minds. Most importantly for the Bears, he made beloved ex-Bear, Kyle Orton a 4000 yard passer on a team with no running game. The next year, he took a Tebow led team with no passing game from 26th in rushing to #1 in the league. The Tebow-led Broncos won 8 regular season games (several of them comebacks with Tebow throwing the ball) and 1 playoff game (on a beautifully designed play call). This year, he's back to an elite passing team (with an elite QB), but has also remained balanced on offense with an average running game. While having a strong offense led by Peyton Manning isn't a strange occurrence, you have to consider the fact that the Broncos young WRs (Thomas and Decker) didn't see the field much as rookies in 2010 and then basically lost a year of development with Tebow behind center in 2011.
- Tom Clements, Packers Offensive Coordinator. The Bears wanted Clements as OC a couple years ago before settling on Mike Martz. That looks to have set the franchise back a few years. Now could be the time to make it right by hiring Clements as head coach. In 2010, the Packers denied the Bears permission to interview Clements as it would have been a lateral move. Clements may be the QB whisperer. He like McCoy, was a former QB. He led Notre Dame to a national championship in '73. He also played in the CFL. His claim to fame is developing superstars at the QB position. In 2007, he led 38-year old Brett Favre to his best season statistically since his 20s. From there, he developed Aaron Rodgers who took off from Day 1 as one of the top 5 QBs in the game. If that's not enough, he even developed Matt Flynn, who played well enough to become filthy rich after just 2 spot starts over a 4 year span. If McCoy is my favorite, Clements is a very close 2nd or even 1A.
- Bruce Arians, Colts Offensive Coordinator. My co-writer could tell you more about Arians, but he has as good of a resume as anyone on this list. Seems to always be in the right place at the right time. Was the first QB coach for Peyton Manning and was the WR coach for Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger broke into the league. He also coached Tim Couch that one year he wasn't terrible! Now Arians got to be Andrew Luck's first mentor at the NFL level. Unlike the rest of this list, he was able to get some head coaching experience this year as Chuck Pagano missed time due to The Big C. He's led some good offenses over the years, but also has had his playcalling questioned on many occasions. But this year, took Luck to record breaking levels for a rookie, and was 9-3 in his first go-round at HC. I have several concerns with Arians, the biggest of which being his age. Arians is 60, and will turn 61 early next season. While he is only 3 years older than Clements, he has had health issues in the past and doesn't have a lot to prove as a coach. I'd like a coach to be here for the very long-term, if successful, and Arians doesn't look to be capable of being around very long. Plus being in Pittsburgh, I've heard a lot of negative about his offensive playcalling and philosophies.
First, it looks like the Bears will NOT be getting Andy Reid, Chip Kelly, or Bill O'Brien....which I see as all being good things. Reid is basically the bizarro Lovie Smith. Always has a good/productive offense. Goes thru defensive coordinators like Lovie did OCs. Several successful years with no rings and only 1 trip to the Superbowl to show for it. Kelly will be fun to watch coach in the NFL. But Chicago is not the place. He needs to go to a young team that needs the hope and enthusiasm that he brings. He also probably needs a team with multiple uniform options. O'Brien was an interesting candidate, given his experience in the Patriots offense, but Josh McDaniels/Charlie Weis appears to have been the masterminds there. As for the rest...
- Keith Armstrong, Falcons special teams coach. I'm not going to claim to know much about him, but he does satisfy the Rooney Rule right off the bat. Falcons have a decent special teams unit, and he was the Bears ST guy from 1997-2000, so he does have a ton of coaching experience. Going to assume this was a "token" interview and he's not a viable candidate.
- Joe DeCamillis, Cowboys special teams coach. He's another very experienced coach, having been in charge of special teams for the majority of seasons since 1988. Only 47 years old. Well respected, but best known for being badly hurt when the Cowboys practice facility collapsed a few years ago. Again, assuming this was a nice guy getting a chance to interview for his dream job.
- Pete Carmichael Jr, Saints Offensive Coordinator. You see "Saints offense" as a Bears fan and you immediately think "YES, I want some of that in Chicago". But Carmichael is far from a no-brainer hire. In fact, plenty of Saints fans despise the guy. This year was his chance to really shine with Payton leaving him all the playcalling duties. And while the Saints still led the league in passing and put up plenty of points, his playcalling left a lot to be desired. Saints fans cite his 65/35 pass/run ratio, and he took what was the 6th best running team in 2011 and took them down to 25th. Granted nobody is Sean Payton, but I think Jr. lost some of his luster this year, and I question his ability to be the guy to institute a strong offense in the Windy City.
- Mike Sullivan, Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator. It was reported tonight that Sullivan's interview went about twice as long as planned with the Bears. While he is an offensive guy that has worked with Eli Manning, he was his QB coach the year he led the league with 25 INTs in 2010. Sullivan did lead Josh Freeman to a strong middle of the season, but Freeman finished the year with 5 straight games under 56% completion. He also had back-to-back 4 INT games in this stretch and got shut out against a Saints defense that allowed the most yards in NFL history from scrimmage. He has a similar military background to GM Phil Emery. And I'll go on record to say that if he is hired, Sullivan would be as underwhelming a hire as Emery was last year. The Bears are the only team Sullivan has an interview schedule with.
- Mike McCoy, Broncos Offensive Coordinator. May be my favorite candidate at the moment. Him having several interviews this weekend justifies my desire for him to be the next Bears head coach. I may be jumping the gun here, but I think he can be the Bears version of Sean Payton. Like Payton, McCoy was a former CFL and WFL QB who dabbled in the NFL for a season. Only 40 years old, but he's held various positions on offense, working with some pretty good offensive minds. Most importantly for the Bears, he made beloved ex-Bear, Kyle Orton a 4000 yard passer on a team with no running game. The next year, he took a Tebow led team with no passing game from 26th in rushing to #1 in the league. The Tebow-led Broncos won 8 regular season games (several of them comebacks with Tebow throwing the ball) and 1 playoff game (on a beautifully designed play call). This year, he's back to an elite passing team (with an elite QB), but has also remained balanced on offense with an average running game. While having a strong offense led by Peyton Manning isn't a strange occurrence, you have to consider the fact that the Broncos young WRs (Thomas and Decker) didn't see the field much as rookies in 2010 and then basically lost a year of development with Tebow behind center in 2011.
- Tom Clements, Packers Offensive Coordinator. The Bears wanted Clements as OC a couple years ago before settling on Mike Martz. That looks to have set the franchise back a few years. Now could be the time to make it right by hiring Clements as head coach. In 2010, the Packers denied the Bears permission to interview Clements as it would have been a lateral move. Clements may be the QB whisperer. He like McCoy, was a former QB. He led Notre Dame to a national championship in '73. He also played in the CFL. His claim to fame is developing superstars at the QB position. In 2007, he led 38-year old Brett Favre to his best season statistically since his 20s. From there, he developed Aaron Rodgers who took off from Day 1 as one of the top 5 QBs in the game. If that's not enough, he even developed Matt Flynn, who played well enough to become filthy rich after just 2 spot starts over a 4 year span. If McCoy is my favorite, Clements is a very close 2nd or even 1A.
- Bruce Arians, Colts Offensive Coordinator. My co-writer could tell you more about Arians, but he has as good of a resume as anyone on this list. Seems to always be in the right place at the right time. Was the first QB coach for Peyton Manning and was the WR coach for Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger broke into the league. He also coached Tim Couch that one year he wasn't terrible! Now Arians got to be Andrew Luck's first mentor at the NFL level. Unlike the rest of this list, he was able to get some head coaching experience this year as Chuck Pagano missed time due to The Big C. He's led some good offenses over the years, but also has had his playcalling questioned on many occasions. But this year, took Luck to record breaking levels for a rookie, and was 9-3 in his first go-round at HC. I have several concerns with Arians, the biggest of which being his age. Arians is 60, and will turn 61 early next season. While he is only 3 years older than Clements, he has had health issues in the past and doesn't have a lot to prove as a coach. I'd like a coach to be here for the very long-term, if successful, and Arians doesn't look to be capable of being around very long. Plus being in Pittsburgh, I've heard a lot of negative about his offensive playcalling and philosophies.
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Chicago Bears.....OFFSEASON
Well, it's the end of the season and the end of an era. The Bears beat the Lions 26-24 to complete a 10-win season, but did not get the needed help from the Green Bay Packers to advance to postseason football. As a result, the Bears fired their coach of 9 years, Lovie Smith.
Kind of mixed emotions right now. I liked Lovie Smith the person, a leader and a motivator.....even was a fan of him as a coach. He clearly had his flaws, but he was good enough to average 9.5 wins per season after taking over Dick Jauron's mess, winning at least 7 games in each of the last 8 years. But ultimately, 2 things cost Coach Smith his job:
1) missing the playoffs for the 5th time in the 6 years since going to the Super Bowl
2) the inevitable hiring of a 4th offensive coordinator in a 5-year span.
Lovie's inability to surround himself with anyone knowledgeable on the offensive side of the ball was his undoing. He personally hired 4 OCs in his 9 years, and wasn't going to get the chance to hire a 5th. You can be a good manager, but consistently hire people underneath you who underperform. Unfortunately, it's not just a coach's job performance that is measured. He's also responsible for the performance of those he oversees. Lovie would probably get no worse than a B- grade for his time as the Bears head coach. But most of his assistants, especially on the offensive side, have been unquestionably Fs.
But overall, I'm really excited about the future of the Chicago Bears. This is a great opportunity for the Bears to get with the times and hire an offensive minded coach. A coach that will get the most out of the best QB and WR in franchise history. A coach that will use a versatility of Forte better. A coach that will develop Alshon Jeffery and get the most out of Earl Bennett, and if he's around, Devin Hester.
The most exciting candidates I've heard are Mike McCoy (Broncos OC) and Tom Clements (Packers OC). Also heard Kyle Shanahan (Redskins OC), college coaches such as Chip Kelly and Kirk Ferentz who I don't really like. I'm also not too excited about the big names like Gruden, Cowher, or Reid. The Bears really need to try to find the next Sean Payton, if he even exists. A young offensive minded coach would be ideal. And while the defense may suffer with the loss of Lovie, and possibly Marinelli and a scheme change; they are still a talented group. The Bears D has 4 pro bowlers, not to mention Briggs (should be there) and Urlacher (potential Hall of Famer), if he's back. So, they aren't going to fall off the face of the Earth on that side of the ball.
New year = change. Change is a good thing. The players are upset right now for the most part, but the best way to honor their now ex-coach is to win with the new guy, giving him some of the credit for building the team from scratch 10 years ago.
Offseason plans and mock drafts to come. Tis the season, a little earlier than I hoped. Go BEARS!
Kind of mixed emotions right now. I liked Lovie Smith the person, a leader and a motivator.....even was a fan of him as a coach. He clearly had his flaws, but he was good enough to average 9.5 wins per season after taking over Dick Jauron's mess, winning at least 7 games in each of the last 8 years. But ultimately, 2 things cost Coach Smith his job:
1) missing the playoffs for the 5th time in the 6 years since going to the Super Bowl
2) the inevitable hiring of a 4th offensive coordinator in a 5-year span.
Lovie's inability to surround himself with anyone knowledgeable on the offensive side of the ball was his undoing. He personally hired 4 OCs in his 9 years, and wasn't going to get the chance to hire a 5th. You can be a good manager, but consistently hire people underneath you who underperform. Unfortunately, it's not just a coach's job performance that is measured. He's also responsible for the performance of those he oversees. Lovie would probably get no worse than a B- grade for his time as the Bears head coach. But most of his assistants, especially on the offensive side, have been unquestionably Fs.
But overall, I'm really excited about the future of the Chicago Bears. This is a great opportunity for the Bears to get with the times and hire an offensive minded coach. A coach that will get the most out of the best QB and WR in franchise history. A coach that will use a versatility of Forte better. A coach that will develop Alshon Jeffery and get the most out of Earl Bennett, and if he's around, Devin Hester.
The most exciting candidates I've heard are Mike McCoy (Broncos OC) and Tom Clements (Packers OC). Also heard Kyle Shanahan (Redskins OC), college coaches such as Chip Kelly and Kirk Ferentz who I don't really like. I'm also not too excited about the big names like Gruden, Cowher, or Reid. The Bears really need to try to find the next Sean Payton, if he even exists. A young offensive minded coach would be ideal. And while the defense may suffer with the loss of Lovie, and possibly Marinelli and a scheme change; they are still a talented group. The Bears D has 4 pro bowlers, not to mention Briggs (should be there) and Urlacher (potential Hall of Famer), if he's back. So, they aren't going to fall off the face of the Earth on that side of the ball.
New year = change. Change is a good thing. The players are upset right now for the most part, but the best way to honor their now ex-coach is to win with the new guy, giving him some of the credit for building the team from scratch 10 years ago.
Offseason plans and mock drafts to come. Tis the season, a little earlier than I hoped. Go BEARS!
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Week 17: BEARS @ Lions, Game Preview
Well, it all comes down to this. The Bears need to win this week and get help from none other than the Green Bay Packers in order to continue their season. A win over the Detroit Lions means 1 of 2 things for the Bears, either they will make the playoffs as the 6th seed OR they will be a rare 10-win team that misses the playoffs and will have the worst draft slot (20th) of all the teams who went nowhere. A loss and the season is over and they likely pick 19th, which isn't much better. So, a win and a Vikings loss is the ideal outcome for plenty of reasons.
The Arizona game was.....well, frankly...pretty boring. The defense played very well. They completely stopped the run....of the worst rushing team in the league. They only allowed 219 yards passing, picked off 2 passes, and got a solid 4 sacks....against the 3rd and 4th string QBs of the team with the league's 4th worst passing game. So, while it was nice to see the defense get back to scoring off of turnovers like they were in the first half of the season, it was against another bad offense. But with 2 starters missing and another (Conte) missing half the game, I'll take that performance any week.
Offensively, the Bears were better than the Cardinals, but that's nothing to write home about. And honestly, that game wasn't really enough to inspire any confidence in me that even if the Bears do manage to get into the playoffs, that they actually compete well enough to win a game (or two) once they get there. Under 300 yards of total offense. But on the positive side, the OL perhaps played their best game of the season. The Bears were able to run the ball well when it still mattered. Cutler saw very little pressure all day with the only sack coming outside of the pocket, on a play where he should have thrown the ball away. But despite the time, Cutler was off-target most of the time when he threw the ball. And again there were a couple drops, though this time Brandon Marshall was the main culprit, which isn't much to worry about. Special teams were a disaster with a couple near blocked punts, a blocked FG for TD, and Hester's taking of a punt inside his 5, returning it near the 15 and then back inside the 5, as 2 penalties were committed in front of him. But again, that's not a huge concern as like Marshall, you expect the special teams to perform when they need to. The concern has been and continues to be, the offensive offense.
Along comes the Detroit Lions. While the Lions are about average overall defensively (middle of the pack in run D, pass D, sacks), they are bottom 5 in the NFL with 27.4 points allowed per game. Cutler and Forte have also both had very productive careers vs. the Lions. Jay has had a career 101 QB rating, with an 11-1 TD-INT ratio and Matt has 120 yards from scrimmage per game against them. So, if the Bears are going to get it going.....ah screw it. Seventeen weeks into the season, the offense isn't going to get it going. At this point, if the Bears are going to do anything this season...it's going to have to be the 2011 49ers formula of stopping teams on defense, forcing turnovers, and protecting the ball on offense. The Lions are definitely a team that strategy could work on. Odds are Matthew Stafford, who has thrown 70 more passes than anyone in the league will put the ball in the air over 50 times on Sunday. That will give the Bears plenty of shots to create a turnover and take the ball the other way. And while Tillman did a masterful job on Calvin Johnson earlier in the season, the Lions will do everything in their power to get him to 2000 yards receiving, as they have nothing else to play for. I expect they will take plenty of shots deep, especially since the Bears will have an inexperienced Anthony Walters playing deep at FS. The Bears are going to have to get pressure up front, with the return of Henry Melton and the resurgence of Julius Peppers. If the Lions drop back 50 times, the Bears need to have 5 sacks. I'd also like to see pressure on Stafford at least 30% of the time. So 15 times in 50 dropbacks, he needs to get hit or have a guy in his face. Offensively, I really like what I've seen from the hurry up offense from the Bears. While, they don't "hurry" as much as I like, they move the ball very well when they are up-tempo. I don't expect to see a ton of it this week as you want to keep the Lions offense off the field, but I'd love to see the Bears go no-huddle after 3-and-outs or very short drives in order to move the ball more consistently.
Last time the Bears were in this situation in Week 17, they lost at Houston, as the league's best WR at that time (Andre Johnson) had a field day against the Bears secondary. I'm hoping history doesn't repeat itself, and honestly, it shouldn't as Calvin is really good, but his team isn't. The Bears are going to be in for a hard-fought game from their division rivals, but they should be able to pull out a W. From there, it's on to the lockerroom to watch the Packers v. Vikings. If all goes right, my next post will be a game preview. If not, looks like it's draft season. I love the draft, but......GO BEARS!
The Arizona game was.....well, frankly...pretty boring. The defense played very well. They completely stopped the run....of the worst rushing team in the league. They only allowed 219 yards passing, picked off 2 passes, and got a solid 4 sacks....against the 3rd and 4th string QBs of the team with the league's 4th worst passing game. So, while it was nice to see the defense get back to scoring off of turnovers like they were in the first half of the season, it was against another bad offense. But with 2 starters missing and another (Conte) missing half the game, I'll take that performance any week.
Offensively, the Bears were better than the Cardinals, but that's nothing to write home about. And honestly, that game wasn't really enough to inspire any confidence in me that even if the Bears do manage to get into the playoffs, that they actually compete well enough to win a game (or two) once they get there. Under 300 yards of total offense. But on the positive side, the OL perhaps played their best game of the season. The Bears were able to run the ball well when it still mattered. Cutler saw very little pressure all day with the only sack coming outside of the pocket, on a play where he should have thrown the ball away. But despite the time, Cutler was off-target most of the time when he threw the ball. And again there were a couple drops, though this time Brandon Marshall was the main culprit, which isn't much to worry about. Special teams were a disaster with a couple near blocked punts, a blocked FG for TD, and Hester's taking of a punt inside his 5, returning it near the 15 and then back inside the 5, as 2 penalties were committed in front of him. But again, that's not a huge concern as like Marshall, you expect the special teams to perform when they need to. The concern has been and continues to be, the offensive offense.
Along comes the Detroit Lions. While the Lions are about average overall defensively (middle of the pack in run D, pass D, sacks), they are bottom 5 in the NFL with 27.4 points allowed per game. Cutler and Forte have also both had very productive careers vs. the Lions. Jay has had a career 101 QB rating, with an 11-1 TD-INT ratio and Matt has 120 yards from scrimmage per game against them. So, if the Bears are going to get it going.....ah screw it. Seventeen weeks into the season, the offense isn't going to get it going. At this point, if the Bears are going to do anything this season...it's going to have to be the 2011 49ers formula of stopping teams on defense, forcing turnovers, and protecting the ball on offense. The Lions are definitely a team that strategy could work on. Odds are Matthew Stafford, who has thrown 70 more passes than anyone in the league will put the ball in the air over 50 times on Sunday. That will give the Bears plenty of shots to create a turnover and take the ball the other way. And while Tillman did a masterful job on Calvin Johnson earlier in the season, the Lions will do everything in their power to get him to 2000 yards receiving, as they have nothing else to play for. I expect they will take plenty of shots deep, especially since the Bears will have an inexperienced Anthony Walters playing deep at FS. The Bears are going to have to get pressure up front, with the return of Henry Melton and the resurgence of Julius Peppers. If the Lions drop back 50 times, the Bears need to have 5 sacks. I'd also like to see pressure on Stafford at least 30% of the time. So 15 times in 50 dropbacks, he needs to get hit or have a guy in his face. Offensively, I really like what I've seen from the hurry up offense from the Bears. While, they don't "hurry" as much as I like, they move the ball very well when they are up-tempo. I don't expect to see a ton of it this week as you want to keep the Lions offense off the field, but I'd love to see the Bears go no-huddle after 3-and-outs or very short drives in order to move the ball more consistently.
Last time the Bears were in this situation in Week 17, they lost at Houston, as the league's best WR at that time (Andre Johnson) had a field day against the Bears secondary. I'm hoping history doesn't repeat itself, and honestly, it shouldn't as Calvin is really good, but his team isn't. The Bears are going to be in for a hard-fought game from their division rivals, but they should be able to pull out a W. From there, it's on to the lockerroom to watch the Packers v. Vikings. If all goes right, my next post will be a game preview. If not, looks like it's draft season. I love the draft, but......GO BEARS!
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Week 16: Bears @ Arizona, Game Preview
So, yeah....that last game kinda sucked. On the positive side, I guess, is that Alshon Jeffery is going to be a really good WR once he learns how to be more subtle with his push-off. He does a good job getting off of press coverage and has really good acceleration. On the negative side....pretty much everything else.
Another game, another OL debacle. Gabe Carimi and James Brown each got benched at the guard positions. Roberto Garza committed a costly penalty on a would-be 3rd and 1. Not only a penalty, but a false start penalty......his 4TH of the season....AS A CENTER! That's gotta be hard to do. Oh and the 5-man OL gave up a sack on a 2-man pass rush late in the game. Granted, Cutler should have thrown the ball before he got sacked, but still, 5 on 2, the QB should never get touched, nevermind the fact that the line gave up a shared sack by BOTH players rushing the passer.
Another game, and Devin Hester still doesn't know what to do as a WR. In fact, no WR other than Marshall caught a pass on Sunday. None of the TEs even had a target, as they have generally been unworthy of throwing the ball to for 3 years anyway.
On defense, while Julius Peppers did show up a little, it was few and far between on the pass rush. With Melton out, the Bears got literally 0 pressure up the middle on Rodgers. The Melton injury, combined with McClellin missing the game, forced Idonije inside which left Peppers and Wootton out on the edge for way too many plays and they frankly could not bring pressure consistently. At the LB level, Lance Briggs was his typical amazing self. Charles Tillman also had a very solid game, even with allowing a TD, but that was an impossible ball to defend. But the other CBs struggled. Kelvin Hayden didn't do a good job of getting a jam on James Jones and he got beat pretty good a couple times. DJ Moore, frankly, played like a guy that has been inactive for most of the 2nd half of the season. Several technique issues that cannot happen against an offense like Green Bay's.
As for the Cardinals, right now, the only thing that will stop the Bears from winning this game is themselves. Arizona is a worse passing team than the bottom 5 Bears, and they are the worst rushing team in the NFL. If they have more than 250 yards against the Bears, they have failed as a defense. Be nice to get some guys back. Jennings, Melton, and McClellin are sorely missed. Arizona is a decent defensive team, but then again, everyone is against the Bears. This week, I expect the Bears to rely on the run game a lot and throw a lot of short, safe passes to anyone not named Hester or Davis. Think they'll do enough to win, but won't explode offensively or anything (going out on a limb here!). It would have been a ballsy move to follow the Ravens' example and fire Tice, while promoting Jeremy Bates to OC for the last 2 weeks. But the Bears are going to have to sink or swim with status quo. And as Brandon Marshall said, if things to get drastically better in a hurry for the Bears, people need to lose their jobs.
Speaking of losing jobs....the Bears are at an interesting spot. They will likely be favored in the last 2 road games, with a good shot to get to 10-6. A loss by the Giants (v. Balt, Phil) and Vikings (vs. Hou, GB) would get the Bears in the playoffs, if they win out. But the playoff berth is likely to be met by a trip to either Green Bay or San Francisco, 2 teams the Bears have shown they cannot compete with. Win, get in, pull an upset, get a shot at a vulnerable Atlanta team, and Lovie and most of his crew probably keep their jobs. Lose, miss the playoffs, and I think there will be major turnover on the coaching staff. On one hand, it's very intriguing to see where Emery would go for his next head coach. An offensive mind is really needed in this organization for the first time, well, ever. On the other hand, I could never root for the Bears to lose, and I actually do like Lovie Smith. I do wonder if maybe Lovie gets one more year with Bates being promoted and the offseason heavily focused on drastically improving the offense (have an offseason plan in the works, FYI). It may be for the best for the organization to finally get with the times on the offensive side of the ball. Cutler is in the last year of his deal, the defense is going to be even older next year, and you can't keep wasting the most offensive talent at QB and WR this organization has ever seen.
Another game, another OL debacle. Gabe Carimi and James Brown each got benched at the guard positions. Roberto Garza committed a costly penalty on a would-be 3rd and 1. Not only a penalty, but a false start penalty......his 4TH of the season....AS A CENTER! That's gotta be hard to do. Oh and the 5-man OL gave up a sack on a 2-man pass rush late in the game. Granted, Cutler should have thrown the ball before he got sacked, but still, 5 on 2, the QB should never get touched, nevermind the fact that the line gave up a shared sack by BOTH players rushing the passer.
Another game, and Devin Hester still doesn't know what to do as a WR. In fact, no WR other than Marshall caught a pass on Sunday. None of the TEs even had a target, as they have generally been unworthy of throwing the ball to for 3 years anyway.
On defense, while Julius Peppers did show up a little, it was few and far between on the pass rush. With Melton out, the Bears got literally 0 pressure up the middle on Rodgers. The Melton injury, combined with McClellin missing the game, forced Idonije inside which left Peppers and Wootton out on the edge for way too many plays and they frankly could not bring pressure consistently. At the LB level, Lance Briggs was his typical amazing self. Charles Tillman also had a very solid game, even with allowing a TD, but that was an impossible ball to defend. But the other CBs struggled. Kelvin Hayden didn't do a good job of getting a jam on James Jones and he got beat pretty good a couple times. DJ Moore, frankly, played like a guy that has been inactive for most of the 2nd half of the season. Several technique issues that cannot happen against an offense like Green Bay's.
As for the Cardinals, right now, the only thing that will stop the Bears from winning this game is themselves. Arizona is a worse passing team than the bottom 5 Bears, and they are the worst rushing team in the NFL. If they have more than 250 yards against the Bears, they have failed as a defense. Be nice to get some guys back. Jennings, Melton, and McClellin are sorely missed. Arizona is a decent defensive team, but then again, everyone is against the Bears. This week, I expect the Bears to rely on the run game a lot and throw a lot of short, safe passes to anyone not named Hester or Davis. Think they'll do enough to win, but won't explode offensively or anything (going out on a limb here!). It would have been a ballsy move to follow the Ravens' example and fire Tice, while promoting Jeremy Bates to OC for the last 2 weeks. But the Bears are going to have to sink or swim with status quo. And as Brandon Marshall said, if things to get drastically better in a hurry for the Bears, people need to lose their jobs.
Speaking of losing jobs....the Bears are at an interesting spot. They will likely be favored in the last 2 road games, with a good shot to get to 10-6. A loss by the Giants (v. Balt, Phil) and Vikings (vs. Hou, GB) would get the Bears in the playoffs, if they win out. But the playoff berth is likely to be met by a trip to either Green Bay or San Francisco, 2 teams the Bears have shown they cannot compete with. Win, get in, pull an upset, get a shot at a vulnerable Atlanta team, and Lovie and most of his crew probably keep their jobs. Lose, miss the playoffs, and I think there will be major turnover on the coaching staff. On one hand, it's very intriguing to see where Emery would go for his next head coach. An offensive mind is really needed in this organization for the first time, well, ever. On the other hand, I could never root for the Bears to lose, and I actually do like Lovie Smith. I do wonder if maybe Lovie gets one more year with Bates being promoted and the offseason heavily focused on drastically improving the offense (have an offseason plan in the works, FYI). It may be for the best for the organization to finally get with the times on the offensive side of the ball. Cutler is in the last year of his deal, the defense is going to be even older next year, and you can't keep wasting the most offensive talent at QB and WR this organization has ever seen.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Week 15- BEARS vs. Packers, Game Preview
I'm usually a pretty positive guy on here. But let's face it, the Bears are probably going to lose this game. The Packers are too good of a team that will have plenty of motivation on Sunday. And the Bears are a struggling offensive team with several key injuries on defense. After 51 points vs. Tennessee, the Bears have scored a total of 44 points in their last 4 losses. Only a 28-point "outburst" and a late score last week get this team to an average of 14.4 points in the 5 games since destroying the Titans. So, there's really no reason to expect the Bears to right the ship and score enough this week to beat a Packers team they haven't been able to beat very much recently.
On defense, the Bears will be without Tim Jennings and Henry Melton, 2 players having probowl seasons, in addition to the already ruled out Brian Urlacher. If that's not bad enough, Briggs, McClellin and Hayes have also missed practice time this week due to injuries. On offense, Earl Bennett is still out. Michael Bush may be a no-go again with sore ribs. And Jay Cutler has dual neck and knee injuries, though he is expected to play.
If there is any positive to take from the last 5 (soon to be 6 weeks) of the season, it's the hope that history repeats itself. Last year, the Giants started 6-2, before losing 5 of 6 games from weeks 10-15. The Giants then won 6 straight, must-win games on their way to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Like the Bears have/will, the Giants lost games against the NFL's elite during that stretch (SF, GB, NO), while also taking tough division losses to Washington and Philly. In 2010, our good friends in Green Bay also had their season come down to must wins in their final 2 regular season games just to get into the playoffs. The Packers blew out a conference foe in Week 16, followed by a hard-fought win vs. a division rival trying to play spoiler. If the Bears season is to end in the playoffs, the Bears will have to do similar by winning @ Arizona and then vs. a Lions team that would like nothing more than to keep the Bears at home with them. Also of similarity between the 2010 Packers and the 2012 Bears is the untimely injuries seemingly determined to end their seasons.
Much was made of the Packers having 14 players end the year on IR, but most of those injuries were relatively insignificant. The Pack had 15 weeks to replace Ryan Grant on a non-running football team. They did lose an offensive lineman, a couple defenders, and Jermichael Finley, but none of them were huge parts of what made them successful. The Bears may be in a similar situation with the most significant players on IR being Lance Louis and Robbie Gould. Both are injuries the Bears can overcome. But the Bears have also had key players such as Forte, Bennett, Jennings, Urlacher, and Jeffery miss multiple games (counting this coming week). In fact after Sunday, only 6 of the Bears 22 starters will have played in at least 1/2 of every game. The only star players that haven't missed at least 3 quarters of a game are Briggs (assuming he plays) and Marshall. In another bit of Pack/Bears parallel, the Packers also received a scare mid-to-late season when Aaron Rodgers went down with a concussion. That year, GB lost a close game to a good Detroit team by not being able to get the ball in the endzone without their QB. The week after, wasn't quite the disaster that the Bears trip to San Francisco was this year, but the Packers also lost to a very good team with their backup QB.
It is worth noting that the Bears did put up 438 yards of total offense last week, their 2nd highest total of the season. Also, worth noting is the fact that it would have been over 500 yards with a couple more scores if not for dropped passes by pretty much everybody. So, if you look at it as the offense starting to come alive, there is hope for this week and the rest of this season. Of course if you look at it as a lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball, then there isn't much hope. But even if the Bears lose this week, I'd like to think they can beat an Arizona team that hasn't won since September and a Lions team that should be just showing up just to get Calvin Johnson the receiving yards record. That would get them to 10 wins, and a good shot at the playoffs. Get in the playoffs, continue to build on something remotely close to 400 yards of total offense, and anything can happen with the way the Bears create turnovers.
On defense, the Bears will be without Tim Jennings and Henry Melton, 2 players having probowl seasons, in addition to the already ruled out Brian Urlacher. If that's not bad enough, Briggs, McClellin and Hayes have also missed practice time this week due to injuries. On offense, Earl Bennett is still out. Michael Bush may be a no-go again with sore ribs. And Jay Cutler has dual neck and knee injuries, though he is expected to play.
If there is any positive to take from the last 5 (soon to be 6 weeks) of the season, it's the hope that history repeats itself. Last year, the Giants started 6-2, before losing 5 of 6 games from weeks 10-15. The Giants then won 6 straight, must-win games on their way to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Like the Bears have/will, the Giants lost games against the NFL's elite during that stretch (SF, GB, NO), while also taking tough division losses to Washington and Philly. In 2010, our good friends in Green Bay also had their season come down to must wins in their final 2 regular season games just to get into the playoffs. The Packers blew out a conference foe in Week 16, followed by a hard-fought win vs. a division rival trying to play spoiler. If the Bears season is to end in the playoffs, the Bears will have to do similar by winning @ Arizona and then vs. a Lions team that would like nothing more than to keep the Bears at home with them. Also of similarity between the 2010 Packers and the 2012 Bears is the untimely injuries seemingly determined to end their seasons.
Much was made of the Packers having 14 players end the year on IR, but most of those injuries were relatively insignificant. The Pack had 15 weeks to replace Ryan Grant on a non-running football team. They did lose an offensive lineman, a couple defenders, and Jermichael Finley, but none of them were huge parts of what made them successful. The Bears may be in a similar situation with the most significant players on IR being Lance Louis and Robbie Gould. Both are injuries the Bears can overcome. But the Bears have also had key players such as Forte, Bennett, Jennings, Urlacher, and Jeffery miss multiple games (counting this coming week). In fact after Sunday, only 6 of the Bears 22 starters will have played in at least 1/2 of every game. The only star players that haven't missed at least 3 quarters of a game are Briggs (assuming he plays) and Marshall. In another bit of Pack/Bears parallel, the Packers also received a scare mid-to-late season when Aaron Rodgers went down with a concussion. That year, GB lost a close game to a good Detroit team by not being able to get the ball in the endzone without their QB. The week after, wasn't quite the disaster that the Bears trip to San Francisco was this year, but the Packers also lost to a very good team with their backup QB.
It is worth noting that the Bears did put up 438 yards of total offense last week, their 2nd highest total of the season. Also, worth noting is the fact that it would have been over 500 yards with a couple more scores if not for dropped passes by pretty much everybody. So, if you look at it as the offense starting to come alive, there is hope for this week and the rest of this season. Of course if you look at it as a lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball, then there isn't much hope. But even if the Bears lose this week, I'd like to think they can beat an Arizona team that hasn't won since September and a Lions team that should be just showing up just to get Calvin Johnson the receiving yards record. That would get them to 10 wins, and a good shot at the playoffs. Get in the playoffs, continue to build on something remotely close to 400 yards of total offense, and anything can happen with the way the Bears create turnovers.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Week 14- BEARS @ Vikings, Game Preview
The Bears went 3-1 in the 1st quarter of the season. 4-0 in the 2nd quarter. Just finished a troubling 1-3 in the 3rd quarter. Now starts the 4th quarter of the season. The Bears were once a 7-1 team, thought of as possibly the best team in the league had they beat a 7-1 Houston team at home. But losses in 3 out of 4 games and injuries starting to mount has Bears Nation concerned. That being said, most Bears fans know that this team has a pretty good shot at making the playoffs. The question most of us have though, "what good is it going to do if the Bears can't beat a good team"? All 4 of the Bears losses have come to teams currently in the playoffs (if the season ended). And the only of the 8 wins against a "good" team was at home in Andrew Luck's NFL debut with the Colts in Week 1. But have no fear Bears fans! I will try to put your wandering minds at ease!
Breaking down the Bears 4 losses, they may not be as bad as they seem on paper. As I mentioned, all 4 losses were to teams that are likely playoff participants. However, the 1st loss was on a short week on the road in Green Bay. Granted it sucks to lose to the Packers at any time, but that loss was on the road, against a division rival, on a short week. But not just any short week, it was Week 2. Four days after the season opener. If you throw in the fact that many Bears starters either didn't play or played very sparingly in Week 2 of the preseason, and absolutely NONE of them played in Week 4 of the preseason....you're talking about a team that played half a game together, had essentially 2 weeks off, then had to play 2 games in a span of 4 days. While the Packers had to do the same, it's a lot easier to deal with when you don't have to travel for either of those games. The next 2 losses were a close one with Cutler missing 1/2 the game, and a blowout with Cutler missing all the game. That leads me to last Sunday.
While the Bears did lose the game vs. the Seahawks, there were some positives that came out of it. The Bears are a different team without Cutler, and that team ain't pretty. But the last 2 weeks, the offense has really shown signs of putting it together. The Cutler led Bears offense has gone 17-31 on 3rd downs since he's come back from the concussion. That number is even skewed to the lower end by Mike Tice essentially giving up on a handful of 3rd downs with late leads. The Bears moved the ball to the tune of 7.16 yards per play on Sunday, and even taking out the desperation bomb to Marshall, that number would still be over 7...which is a pretty good number. The Bears put up 358 yards of total offense, which isn't an astounding number, but has been a magic number when it comes to the Bears. When Cutler has led the offense to over 350 total yards, the team is 12-2 and averaging over 26 points per game (that's with taking out defensive scores too). Despite 2 injuries and a walkout, the Bears OL has been impressive in pass protection also the last 2 weeks. Cutler has been sacked just 1 time each of the last 2 games. And even those sacks came on a Cutler dropped shotgun snap on Sunday and him tripping over his center the week before. Tice has done a decent job the last 2 weeks of mixing in short, intermediate and long drops. He's moved the pocket. He's put Marshall in the slot often and run crossing routes to get guys open. Bennett, Rodriguez and Forte have gotten involved more in the passing game. Sunday was especially impressive considering the Bears were down to Marshall and their #5 and 6 WRs for half the game, against maybe the best secondary in the league. The Bears offense should be getting Jeffery back this week, followed by hopefully Bennett and Hester by next week at the latest. Should only go up from here on offense, especially now that the big defensive tests are over......for now.
Did I give you a ray of hope yet? Well, now I gotta call it how I see it on the other side of the ball. The last 4 weeks the Bears defense has been very lackluster. Granted, they've only given up 321 yards per game over the last 4 (even with a 450 yard output allowed Sunday), but they have been exposed. Houston opened up a huge can of worms with their stretch run plays. This is the play that is a long-slow developing handoff where the OL all takes hard slants to the play side, blocking anyone who tries to cross their face. Sometimes there are crackback blocks, TEs in motion or pulling weakside linemen. Arian Foster was able to get a couple of big runs and Gore, Peterson and Lynch have now followed suit. The Bears OF old would have little trouble stopping this play, but now the Bears ARE old at some key spots. A young Brian Urlacher would have been able to scrape to the outside and beat the slanting/pulling OL to the punch and stop the RB for minimal gain. And he did do that on occasion the last 4 weeks, but he typically cheated to the outside to do so. The Bears have also been hurt a couple times because of the cheating outside and are susceptible to the cutback. But Urlacher doesn't get all the blame here. The Bears DEs have done a horrific job holding the edge. Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije have allowed OTs to block them away from the edge to allow RBs the corner to pick up positive yardage way too often. Russell Wilson joined into the act Sunday as the Bears DEs consistently lost contain and he picked up any 3rd down he needed with his legs. The coverage also suffered Sunday as Wilson kept plays alive and the CBs couldn't stay with the Seahawks speedy WRs for that long. With Urlacher now out for possibly 3 weeks, I'm interested to see how Nick Roach handles this at the Mike LB position. He really looked good in the preseason and a good end to this season could mean he takes over the job full-time in 2013. Minnesota will definitely test him this week with Peterson and with Kyle Rudolph the TE in the middle of the field.
But basically, this Bears D has become entirely dependent on getting turnovers. It feels like when they don't get a turnover, they really don't know what to do. Of course, the Bears D has gotten multiple turnovers in all but 2 games so far. But the 2 games they didn't, the 49ers dominated them and the Seahawks beat them with TD scoring drives of 94, 97, and 80 in OT. They have won every game that they've forced at least 2 turnovers, other than when they've given up 4 TOs on offense themselves.
Going forward, I can see the Bears offense continuing to get better. Cutler-to-Marshall is as good as any QB/WR combo in the league. But as the Bears get some guys healthy and get more guys involved, it's only going to make them more dangerous, with 350 yards as the benchmark. Defensively, turnovers may not be as easy to come by once they get the better teams in the playoffs (if they make it there). But it has been the one phase of the Lovie Smith era that has been consistent. Don't discount this team's chances to move the ball with a healthy offense and to take the ball away with an opportunistic defense. As for this week's game, I expect more of the same from 2 weeks ago. I think the offense will move the ball, and put up points. I think the defense will struggle some against Peterson, but don't feel Christian Ponder is good enough to beat them with his arm. And while he is mobile, he's not Russell Wilson back there, so he shouldn't be able to beat them with his legs either.
Breaking down the Bears 4 losses, they may not be as bad as they seem on paper. As I mentioned, all 4 losses were to teams that are likely playoff participants. However, the 1st loss was on a short week on the road in Green Bay. Granted it sucks to lose to the Packers at any time, but that loss was on the road, against a division rival, on a short week. But not just any short week, it was Week 2. Four days after the season opener. If you throw in the fact that many Bears starters either didn't play or played very sparingly in Week 2 of the preseason, and absolutely NONE of them played in Week 4 of the preseason....you're talking about a team that played half a game together, had essentially 2 weeks off, then had to play 2 games in a span of 4 days. While the Packers had to do the same, it's a lot easier to deal with when you don't have to travel for either of those games. The next 2 losses were a close one with Cutler missing 1/2 the game, and a blowout with Cutler missing all the game. That leads me to last Sunday.
While the Bears did lose the game vs. the Seahawks, there were some positives that came out of it. The Bears are a different team without Cutler, and that team ain't pretty. But the last 2 weeks, the offense has really shown signs of putting it together. The Cutler led Bears offense has gone 17-31 on 3rd downs since he's come back from the concussion. That number is even skewed to the lower end by Mike Tice essentially giving up on a handful of 3rd downs with late leads. The Bears moved the ball to the tune of 7.16 yards per play on Sunday, and even taking out the desperation bomb to Marshall, that number would still be over 7...which is a pretty good number. The Bears put up 358 yards of total offense, which isn't an astounding number, but has been a magic number when it comes to the Bears. When Cutler has led the offense to over 350 total yards, the team is 12-2 and averaging over 26 points per game (that's with taking out defensive scores too). Despite 2 injuries and a walkout, the Bears OL has been impressive in pass protection also the last 2 weeks. Cutler has been sacked just 1 time each of the last 2 games. And even those sacks came on a Cutler dropped shotgun snap on Sunday and him tripping over his center the week before. Tice has done a decent job the last 2 weeks of mixing in short, intermediate and long drops. He's moved the pocket. He's put Marshall in the slot often and run crossing routes to get guys open. Bennett, Rodriguez and Forte have gotten involved more in the passing game. Sunday was especially impressive considering the Bears were down to Marshall and their #5 and 6 WRs for half the game, against maybe the best secondary in the league. The Bears offense should be getting Jeffery back this week, followed by hopefully Bennett and Hester by next week at the latest. Should only go up from here on offense, especially now that the big defensive tests are over......for now.
Did I give you a ray of hope yet? Well, now I gotta call it how I see it on the other side of the ball. The last 4 weeks the Bears defense has been very lackluster. Granted, they've only given up 321 yards per game over the last 4 (even with a 450 yard output allowed Sunday), but they have been exposed. Houston opened up a huge can of worms with their stretch run plays. This is the play that is a long-slow developing handoff where the OL all takes hard slants to the play side, blocking anyone who tries to cross their face. Sometimes there are crackback blocks, TEs in motion or pulling weakside linemen. Arian Foster was able to get a couple of big runs and Gore, Peterson and Lynch have now followed suit. The Bears OF old would have little trouble stopping this play, but now the Bears ARE old at some key spots. A young Brian Urlacher would have been able to scrape to the outside and beat the slanting/pulling OL to the punch and stop the RB for minimal gain. And he did do that on occasion the last 4 weeks, but he typically cheated to the outside to do so. The Bears have also been hurt a couple times because of the cheating outside and are susceptible to the cutback. But Urlacher doesn't get all the blame here. The Bears DEs have done a horrific job holding the edge. Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije have allowed OTs to block them away from the edge to allow RBs the corner to pick up positive yardage way too often. Russell Wilson joined into the act Sunday as the Bears DEs consistently lost contain and he picked up any 3rd down he needed with his legs. The coverage also suffered Sunday as Wilson kept plays alive and the CBs couldn't stay with the Seahawks speedy WRs for that long. With Urlacher now out for possibly 3 weeks, I'm interested to see how Nick Roach handles this at the Mike LB position. He really looked good in the preseason and a good end to this season could mean he takes over the job full-time in 2013. Minnesota will definitely test him this week with Peterson and with Kyle Rudolph the TE in the middle of the field.
But basically, this Bears D has become entirely dependent on getting turnovers. It feels like when they don't get a turnover, they really don't know what to do. Of course, the Bears D has gotten multiple turnovers in all but 2 games so far. But the 2 games they didn't, the 49ers dominated them and the Seahawks beat them with TD scoring drives of 94, 97, and 80 in OT. They have won every game that they've forced at least 2 turnovers, other than when they've given up 4 TOs on offense themselves.
Going forward, I can see the Bears offense continuing to get better. Cutler-to-Marshall is as good as any QB/WR combo in the league. But as the Bears get some guys healthy and get more guys involved, it's only going to make them more dangerous, with 350 yards as the benchmark. Defensively, turnovers may not be as easy to come by once they get the better teams in the playoffs (if they make it there). But it has been the one phase of the Lovie Smith era that has been consistent. Don't discount this team's chances to move the ball with a healthy offense and to take the ball away with an opportunistic defense. As for this week's game, I expect more of the same from 2 weeks ago. I think the offense will move the ball, and put up points. I think the defense will struggle some against Peterson, but don't feel Christian Ponder is good enough to beat them with his arm. And while he is mobile, he's not Russell Wilson back there, so he shouldn't be able to beat them with his legs either.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Week 13 BEARS vs. Seahawks, Game Preview
The complete homer in me has been pretty confident in the Bears winning every game so far, and I have been right 73% of the time. Yet, somehow I'm very worried about this game. The Seahawks have won just 7 road games in the last 3.75 seasons, 3 of them division games against bad Arizona and St. Louis teams, 1 was this year vs. a bad Carolina team. But 2 of the 7 have come in Chicago. Granted, 1 of those was last year against a Caleb Hanie led Bears team, but Seattle did dominate on all phases in that game.
A lot of the faces are different for Seattle's offense, but not much has changed overall. Russell Wilson is a similar player to Tavaris Jackson, who the Bears faced last season. Still have Lynch at RB, Tate at WR, Miller at TE, and Robinson at FB. Only difference (other than a similar QB) is Sidney Rice instead of Mike Williams at the other WR. Like Jackson did in the game last year, Wilson will spread the ball around to a variety of targets. In 11 games, Wilson has targeted at least 9 different receivers in 8 of those. While the Bears typically do a pretty decent job at taking away a team's top option not named Steve Smith (Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson for example this year), they have struggled in the last few years when a team has a variety of guys they can throw to. Not that Seattle has anybody that strikes fear into defenses, but they can put several respectable receiving options on the field at the same time to give the Bears a lot to have to worry about.
The Bears have typically had success against Marshawn Lynch, holding him to just 88 yards on 39 carries in 3 career games. I expect more of the same this week. But where the defense has to step up is keeping Russell Wilson in the pocket. It's no secret, Wilson is short and has trouble seeing over his OL. It's also no secret that he can really move and can throw well out of the pocket, often improvising plays on the fly. The Bears have had mixed results in the past against mobile QBs. And they have to balance getting a pass rush with keeping contain, especially at the left DE position where Wilson really likes to roll to his right. The Bears have played straight up most of the year with 27 of their 30 sacks coming from the DLine. But I wouldn't mind seeing the rookie QB blitzed on occasion with either edge rushes (i.e. CB, S, nickel blitz) or the typical double A-gap blitz by Urlacher and Briggs (or a standing McClellin) with Peppers sitting outside the pocket to catch him if he flushes. I expect the defense to be healthy with Briggs and Tillman both ready to go by Sunday, though neither practiced today.
On offense, the injuries are a little worrisome. Another week, another OL change. This one forced due to an injury by a Jared Allen cheapshot. Forte and Hester are also hurting this week. In years past, I would be devastated by the prospect of Forte missing a game. But at this point, the Bears need to get the passing game going and Cutler is going to be the deciding factor of whether they get to a Superbowl or not. Bush should be fine in the short term running the ball and being a target out of the backfield. Back to the OL...it looks like Carimi will get his first NFL start at RG. I expect a Seahawks team who doesn't mind blitzing to do a lot to try to confuse the kid playing out of position. I'm expecting blitzes right at him. I'm expecting T/E stunts to try to get Carimi to miss an assignment. With a new RT next to Gabe, communication will be key. A lot of TE and RB chipping help will be sent to the right side. That could leave J'Marcus Webb on speedster, Bruce Irvin. Irvin presents some of the same problems that Aldon Smith provided for the Bears in San Francisco. He's a long-armed speed rusher that can get the edge in a hurry. The Bears have to account for him.
On the outside, there are going to be more tough matchups for the Bears. The Seahawks probably have the league's best secondary. Seattle isn't going to be afraid to leave Browner and Sherman alone on Marshall and bring some heat on Cutler. When they don't blitz, they will likely have either of their 6'3" CBs mentioned above, with 6'3" Kam Chancellor over the top. That's a coverage the Bears have seen plenty of with Marshall, but have never seen it with 2 guys that are his height. Seattle is going to try to make Cutler throw the ball to someone else, and nobody else for the Bears has consistently shown up on a weekly basis. I'd like to see Sanzenbacher get in the mix some from the slot as he could create problems for the Hawks there if they focus a lot on Marshall. We briefly saw Evan Rodriguez and Matt Spaeth get some love vs. the Vikings, and they are going to need to be involved again. The checkdown to whatever RB is playing will also be a necessary weapon. But most of all, Tice has to call the right plays to allow this team to have success against a tough defense. Last week, we saw a little bit of it with Cutler on the move a little bit. We also saw some slants and crossing routes that I've been calling for. No matter how good the CB is, no CB in the NFL can guard a WR running laterally in man coverage for a long period of time. Anyone not named Marshall isn't likely to catch anything outside of the numbers this weekend, so the middle of the field has to be active.
As I said, I don't like this game very much on paper. I think the Bears have a slight edge on defense with the ability to get turnovers. And I think the Bears typically have an edge on offense. But injuries are a big equalizer. Hester and Spencer are already ruled out. Jeffery's out. Carimi is playing RG for the first time, maybe in his life. A new RT is playing against a couple solid edge rushers. Forte is not 100%. The Seahawks are also a very desperate team at this point. They are in a log jam for the last wildcard spot and winning this game would go a long way toward giving them that spot. And they have to show they can win a road game. But clearly this is a winnable game for the Bears. Losing it won't kill them, as they still have 3 winnable games out of 4, and get the Packers at home. But a win, and the playoffs are a near lock, and at that point the Bears would be looking at the possibility of a 1st round bye.
A lot of the faces are different for Seattle's offense, but not much has changed overall. Russell Wilson is a similar player to Tavaris Jackson, who the Bears faced last season. Still have Lynch at RB, Tate at WR, Miller at TE, and Robinson at FB. Only difference (other than a similar QB) is Sidney Rice instead of Mike Williams at the other WR. Like Jackson did in the game last year, Wilson will spread the ball around to a variety of targets. In 11 games, Wilson has targeted at least 9 different receivers in 8 of those. While the Bears typically do a pretty decent job at taking away a team's top option not named Steve Smith (Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson for example this year), they have struggled in the last few years when a team has a variety of guys they can throw to. Not that Seattle has anybody that strikes fear into defenses, but they can put several respectable receiving options on the field at the same time to give the Bears a lot to have to worry about.
The Bears have typically had success against Marshawn Lynch, holding him to just 88 yards on 39 carries in 3 career games. I expect more of the same this week. But where the defense has to step up is keeping Russell Wilson in the pocket. It's no secret, Wilson is short and has trouble seeing over his OL. It's also no secret that he can really move and can throw well out of the pocket, often improvising plays on the fly. The Bears have had mixed results in the past against mobile QBs. And they have to balance getting a pass rush with keeping contain, especially at the left DE position where Wilson really likes to roll to his right. The Bears have played straight up most of the year with 27 of their 30 sacks coming from the DLine. But I wouldn't mind seeing the rookie QB blitzed on occasion with either edge rushes (i.e. CB, S, nickel blitz) or the typical double A-gap blitz by Urlacher and Briggs (or a standing McClellin) with Peppers sitting outside the pocket to catch him if he flushes. I expect the defense to be healthy with Briggs and Tillman both ready to go by Sunday, though neither practiced today.
On offense, the injuries are a little worrisome. Another week, another OL change. This one forced due to an injury by a Jared Allen cheapshot. Forte and Hester are also hurting this week. In years past, I would be devastated by the prospect of Forte missing a game. But at this point, the Bears need to get the passing game going and Cutler is going to be the deciding factor of whether they get to a Superbowl or not. Bush should be fine in the short term running the ball and being a target out of the backfield. Back to the OL...it looks like Carimi will get his first NFL start at RG. I expect a Seahawks team who doesn't mind blitzing to do a lot to try to confuse the kid playing out of position. I'm expecting blitzes right at him. I'm expecting T/E stunts to try to get Carimi to miss an assignment. With a new RT next to Gabe, communication will be key. A lot of TE and RB chipping help will be sent to the right side. That could leave J'Marcus Webb on speedster, Bruce Irvin. Irvin presents some of the same problems that Aldon Smith provided for the Bears in San Francisco. He's a long-armed speed rusher that can get the edge in a hurry. The Bears have to account for him.
On the outside, there are going to be more tough matchups for the Bears. The Seahawks probably have the league's best secondary. Seattle isn't going to be afraid to leave Browner and Sherman alone on Marshall and bring some heat on Cutler. When they don't blitz, they will likely have either of their 6'3" CBs mentioned above, with 6'3" Kam Chancellor over the top. That's a coverage the Bears have seen plenty of with Marshall, but have never seen it with 2 guys that are his height. Seattle is going to try to make Cutler throw the ball to someone else, and nobody else for the Bears has consistently shown up on a weekly basis. I'd like to see Sanzenbacher get in the mix some from the slot as he could create problems for the Hawks there if they focus a lot on Marshall. We briefly saw Evan Rodriguez and Matt Spaeth get some love vs. the Vikings, and they are going to need to be involved again. The checkdown to whatever RB is playing will also be a necessary weapon. But most of all, Tice has to call the right plays to allow this team to have success against a tough defense. Last week, we saw a little bit of it with Cutler on the move a little bit. We also saw some slants and crossing routes that I've been calling for. No matter how good the CB is, no CB in the NFL can guard a WR running laterally in man coverage for a long period of time. Anyone not named Marshall isn't likely to catch anything outside of the numbers this weekend, so the middle of the field has to be active.
As I said, I don't like this game very much on paper. I think the Bears have a slight edge on defense with the ability to get turnovers. And I think the Bears typically have an edge on offense. But injuries are a big equalizer. Hester and Spencer are already ruled out. Jeffery's out. Carimi is playing RG for the first time, maybe in his life. A new RT is playing against a couple solid edge rushers. Forte is not 100%. The Seahawks are also a very desperate team at this point. They are in a log jam for the last wildcard spot and winning this game would go a long way toward giving them that spot. And they have to show they can win a road game. But clearly this is a winnable game for the Bears. Losing it won't kill them, as they still have 3 winnable games out of 4, and get the Packers at home. But a win, and the playoffs are a near lock, and at that point the Bears would be looking at the possibility of a 1st round bye.
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