Week 1: Colts vs. Bears, Game Preview

Every week, I'll give my game preview and keys to the game.  This is not going to be your run-of-the mill, NFL pre-game show stuff that you can see on FOX or NFL Network, done with very little research.  I'll hopefully be able to add some insight into areas of the game that the average person/fan doesn't really think about.

For the Colts game, I'll be honest here.....I'd be pretty disappointed if the Bears don't have their way in this game.  The Colts have nothing going for them other than the fact they have one of the best QB prospects on their roster since the former starting QB on their roster was a prospect.  The Colts won 2 games last year, none until Week 15.  They'll win more and sooner than that this year, but it shouldn't be Week 1.  My keys to the game:

1. BIG BOY FOOTBALL.  The Bears really need to bully this team.  The Colts are in their 1st year of the 3-4 defense, and while some teams have had success while changing schemes, the Colts have almost none of the pieces in place to make this scheme successful.  Mathis is a 245lb OLB, the interior LBs are 234 and 243 respectively....all 3 guys are smaller than Bears RB, Michael Bush.  Their "big" LB is Dwight Freeney listed at 268lbs, but he's a 4-3 DE, never having stood up before in his career.  Mathis and Freeney have always been known for their pass rush ability, but their ability to stop the run has never been a strong suit for them.  Nose tackle, Antonio Johnson, is also only 310lbs and his scouting report reads his strengths as explosion and quickness, with his weaknesses being strength and ability to get off blocks when engaged....the exact opposite of what you want out of your 3-4 anchor in the middle.  Now, the Bears strong suit isn't really running the ball up the gut, but in this game, I think they will have success in the tackle box moreso than the outside with the speed the Colts have. 

2. Remember the Superbowl.  Every Bears fan remembers the first play of SB XLI.  Devin Hester takes the opening kickoff 92 yards for an opening TD.  Well, it hasn't gotten much better for the Colts since then.  Indianapolis has finished 5 of the last 6 seasons as one of the 5 worst kickoff coverage teams (yards per return), and they aren't much better on punt returns, never finishing better than middle of the pack in the NFL.  And with 11 rookies and a lot of roster turnover, they don't appear to be much of a match for the best special teams in the business.  If the Bears don't take a kick back, I look for a couple really strong returns setting the Bears up on a short field.

3. Not your typical rookie QB.  The Bears have typically faired pretty well against rookie QBs, especially ones without a lot of weapons to play with.  But admittedly, Andrew Luck is not your typical rookie.  The Bears won't be able to get away with just playing Cover 2 all game, because Luck is smart enough to pick that apart.  And contrary to popular belief, the Bears are not nearly an exclusive Cover 2 team, playing in that coverage less than 50% of the defensive snaps.  However, the Bears also won't be able to blitz Luck all day long, simply because of his inexperience.  The key will be mixing it up.  Going to have to give Luck a lot of different pre-snap reads, and will have to change out of those looks at the snap.  You can blitz him, but gotta disguise it, hoping he makes the wrong hot read and makes a mistake.  I don't think you have to worry too much about the deep ball, because the Colts don't have a ton of deep speed and I don't think that OL can block the Bears front long enough to hit a bomb.  Wayne isn't fast enough anymore to force the Bears to keep the FS over top at all times like a few years ago.  I think Jennings can run with him in man most of the game.  Tillman can be more physical on the bigger, less shifty, Austin Collie on the other side.  This should help free up the safeties and LBs to cover the middle of the field with the RBs, TEs, and slot WRs where I think Luck will look to have most of his success.  But I also don't think you can let Luck move the ball down the field with Aaron Rodgers-like precision.  Switching up the looks on D will not allow Luck to get comfortable in the pocket, and at Stanford, he struggled a little when forced to move around.

4. One at a time.  Now this is one that mainstream media may touch on, but I had to do so also.  This is a strange season as the Bears have to travel to Lambeau on a short week this early in the year.  The Bears are naturally going to be accused of "looking ahead" if they don't dominate like I described in my first point.  My biggest worry with looking ahead is that the Bears get too concerned about what they put out there on tape for Green Bay.  For the most part, the Bears and Packers know what each other is going to try to do.  They've played several times under the current head coaches.  But I do worry that Mike Tice won't want to show his entire offensive repertoire in his first year as Bears OC.  While the Bears should be able to beat the Colts with a vanilla gameplan, they shouldn't get caught up in that because of the Packers looming.  Run your offense and force the 31st ranked pass defense from a year ago to stop it with 3 days to prepare.