Week 6- Bears vs. Lions, Game Preview

Bye weeks suck!  Not playing football on Sunday afternoon also sucks!  But I do take solace in the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on Monday Night Football under Jay Cutler.  Lovie is actually 9-2 on MNF as Bears coach, with only 3 of them (3-0) being in Chicago.  And I like the fact that the Bears get 14-days off before facing a division opponent at home. 

In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense.  It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season.  In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight.  Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same.  The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%.  Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling. 

Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run.  However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense.  Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games).  And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs.  I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath.  Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past.  Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall.  I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week. 

On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford.  The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4.  It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week.  But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player.  Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson.  Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed?  Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top.  Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron.  If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle.  The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry.  In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench.  Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.

Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season.  Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none.  Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week.  With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two.  Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year.  Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more.  Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in.  I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.

I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough.  This may be the Lions season on the line.  A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them.  Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race.  But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this.  Now just gotta go get it done!