The complete homer in me has been pretty confident in the Bears winning every game so far, and I have been right 73% of the time. Yet, somehow I'm very worried about this game. The Seahawks have won just 7 road games in the last 3.75 seasons, 3 of them division games against bad Arizona and St. Louis teams, 1 was this year vs. a bad Carolina team. But 2 of the 7 have come in Chicago. Granted, 1 of those was last year against a Caleb Hanie led Bears team, but Seattle did dominate on all phases in that game.
A lot of the faces are different for Seattle's offense, but not much has changed overall. Russell Wilson is a similar player to Tavaris Jackson, who the Bears faced last season. Still have Lynch at RB, Tate at WR, Miller at TE, and Robinson at FB. Only difference (other than a similar QB) is Sidney Rice instead of Mike Williams at the other WR. Like Jackson did in the game last year, Wilson will spread the ball around to a variety of targets. In 11 games, Wilson has targeted at least 9 different receivers in 8 of those. While the Bears typically do a pretty decent job at taking away a team's top option not named Steve Smith (Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson for example this year), they have struggled in the last few years when a team has a variety of guys they can throw to. Not that Seattle has anybody that strikes fear into defenses, but they can put several respectable receiving options on the field at the same time to give the Bears a lot to have to worry about.
The Bears have typically had success against Marshawn Lynch, holding him to just 88 yards on 39 carries in 3 career games. I expect more of the same this week. But where the defense has to step up is keeping Russell Wilson in the pocket. It's no secret, Wilson is short and has trouble seeing over his OL. It's also no secret that he can really move and can throw well out of the pocket, often improvising plays on the fly. The Bears have had mixed results in the past against mobile QBs. And they have to balance getting a pass rush with keeping contain, especially at the left DE position where Wilson really likes to roll to his right. The Bears have played straight up most of the year with 27 of their 30 sacks coming from the DLine. But I wouldn't mind seeing the rookie QB blitzed on occasion with either edge rushes (i.e. CB, S, nickel blitz) or the typical double A-gap blitz by Urlacher and Briggs (or a standing McClellin) with Peppers sitting outside the pocket to catch him if he flushes. I expect the defense to be healthy with Briggs and Tillman both ready to go by Sunday, though neither practiced today.
On offense, the injuries are a little worrisome. Another week, another OL change. This one forced due to an injury by a Jared Allen cheapshot. Forte and Hester are also hurting this week. In years past, I would be devastated by the prospect of Forte missing a game. But at this point, the Bears need to get the passing game going and Cutler is going to be the deciding factor of whether they get to a Superbowl or not. Bush should be fine in the short term running the ball and being a target out of the backfield. Back to the OL...it looks like Carimi will get his first NFL start at RG. I expect a Seahawks team who doesn't mind blitzing to do a lot to try to confuse the kid playing out of position. I'm expecting blitzes right at him. I'm expecting T/E stunts to try to get Carimi to miss an assignment. With a new RT next to Gabe, communication will be key. A lot of TE and RB chipping help will be sent to the right side. That could leave J'Marcus Webb on speedster, Bruce Irvin. Irvin presents some of the same problems that Aldon Smith provided for the Bears in San Francisco. He's a long-armed speed rusher that can get the edge in a hurry. The Bears have to account for him.
On the outside, there are going to be more tough matchups for the Bears. The Seahawks probably have the league's best secondary. Seattle isn't going to be afraid to leave Browner and Sherman alone on Marshall and bring some heat on Cutler. When they don't blitz, they will likely have either of their 6'3" CBs mentioned above, with 6'3" Kam Chancellor over the top. That's a coverage the Bears have seen plenty of with Marshall, but have never seen it with 2 guys that are his height. Seattle is going to try to make Cutler throw the ball to someone else, and nobody else for the Bears has consistently shown up on a weekly basis. I'd like to see Sanzenbacher get in the mix some from the slot as he could create problems for the Hawks there if they focus a lot on Marshall. We briefly saw Evan Rodriguez and Matt Spaeth get some love vs. the Vikings, and they are going to need to be involved again. The checkdown to whatever RB is playing will also be a necessary weapon. But most of all, Tice has to call the right plays to allow this team to have success against a tough defense. Last week, we saw a little bit of it with Cutler on the move a little bit. We also saw some slants and crossing routes that I've been calling for. No matter how good the CB is, no CB in the NFL can guard a WR running laterally in man coverage for a long period of time. Anyone not named Marshall isn't likely to catch anything outside of the numbers this weekend, so the middle of the field has to be active.
As I said, I don't like this game very much on paper. I think the Bears have a slight edge on defense with the ability to get turnovers. And I think the Bears typically have an edge on offense. But injuries are a big equalizer. Hester and Spencer are already ruled out. Jeffery's out. Carimi is playing RG for the first time, maybe in his life. A new RT is playing against a couple solid edge rushers. Forte is not 100%. The Seahawks are also a very desperate team at this point. They are in a log jam for the last wildcard spot and winning this game would go a long way toward giving them that spot. And they have to show they can win a road game. But clearly this is a winnable game for the Bears. Losing it won't kill them, as they still have 3 winnable games out of 4, and get the Packers at home. But a win, and the playoffs are a near lock, and at that point the Bears would be looking at the possibility of a 1st round bye.
This blog is solely used to provide both Steelers and Bears fans with a very realistic look at their teams upcoming possible draft picks.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Week 12, BEARS vs. Vikings, Game Preview
Ugh. Another OL debacle. Another backup quarterback failure. This time the defense joins the party and can't stop anyone. But the Niners loss isn't on the D. It's unrealistic to expect them to hold every team under 14 points while scoring a TD themselves. At some point, the offense needs to get it going.
About that offense....it's pretty ugly right now. But on the bright side, there are a couple positives. Jay Cutler is probably going to be back this Sunday. And finally there are some changes on the OL. Chilo Rachal was terrible and has been benched and basically cut after leaving the team facility in anger after hearing that doing your job poorly actually leads to losing your job. Also appears that Gabe Carimi lost the coin toss and will be replaced by journeyman, Jonathan Scott. At this point....it can't be any worse, right? On the downside, the Bears have lost Alshon Jeffery again, after just 1 week back, to arthoscopic knee surgery. However, if Cutler is back, this is the time the Bears offense needs to get it going. The last time the Vikings played, their pass D allowed 12 catches for 207 yards to Calvin Johnson. Not that I'm expecting the same from Brandon Marshall, but the Vikings are probably going to try to play Harrison Smith over the top to essentially double cover him. If Mike Tice has any ability as an offensive coordinator whatsoever (and it's debatable whether he does or not) the Bears will get Marshall going on some crossing routes to the middle of the field. But they also have to take advantage of one of the Vikings best run defenders being outside of the tackle box by running and throwing the ball to Forte, to force the Vikes D to leave Marshall 1-on-1 on the outside, where he is a big matchup problem, even with Antoine Winfield playing at a high level this season. This would be a good week to get Devin Hester going as for whatever reason, he has really dominated the Vikings in his career. In 9 games vs. Minnesota (on offense) he has 23 catches for 384 yards and 5 TDs. Not eyepopping numbers but he's had more success vs. the Vikes than he's had vs. any other team. Minnesota has also had trouble this year with their LBs in coverage as RBs and TEs have had a lot of success in the passing game against them. It's time to get Forte back into the passing game, and give Evan Rodriguez a little more action.
On defense, it's not really a mystery what the Bears need to do. They gotta stop Adrian Peterson. The Bears have struggled in the past vs. Peterson, but it hasn't been from being beaten by the Vikings OL. Peterson's big games vs. the Bears have come when they haven't tackled well. The Bears gotta get 11 guys to the ball and bring him down on first or 2nd contact. With Percy Harvin looking like he's not going to go this week, the Bears pass D gets a little break. The Vikings will use a variety of receivers without Harvin, and while none of them should scare the Bears, they do have a few guys that can really take the top off of the defense. Jenkins, Wright, Aromashodu, and Simpson will all get looks deep at some point. The Bears DBs have done a pretty good job though this year not allowing much down the field. They've also done a pretty good job of trusting the front 6 or 7 (depending on if in nickel or not) to make tackles in the run game and staying with the called coverage.
With Cutler and the home field advantage, the Bears should be able to win this game against a Vikings team that is 1-3 on the road this year. But to do so, they have to tackle Peterson on 1st down. Force Christian Ponder into obvious passing situations and then get after an OL that has allowed its share of sacks this year. Ponder also has had his fair share of turnovers, but when he has been mistake free, his team has won. If the defense gets a turnover early and the offense can actually try scoring early for a change, the Vikings won't be able to comeback on the Bears D.
About that offense....it's pretty ugly right now. But on the bright side, there are a couple positives. Jay Cutler is probably going to be back this Sunday. And finally there are some changes on the OL. Chilo Rachal was terrible and has been benched and basically cut after leaving the team facility in anger after hearing that doing your job poorly actually leads to losing your job. Also appears that Gabe Carimi lost the coin toss and will be replaced by journeyman, Jonathan Scott. At this point....it can't be any worse, right? On the downside, the Bears have lost Alshon Jeffery again, after just 1 week back, to arthoscopic knee surgery. However, if Cutler is back, this is the time the Bears offense needs to get it going. The last time the Vikings played, their pass D allowed 12 catches for 207 yards to Calvin Johnson. Not that I'm expecting the same from Brandon Marshall, but the Vikings are probably going to try to play Harrison Smith over the top to essentially double cover him. If Mike Tice has any ability as an offensive coordinator whatsoever (and it's debatable whether he does or not) the Bears will get Marshall going on some crossing routes to the middle of the field. But they also have to take advantage of one of the Vikings best run defenders being outside of the tackle box by running and throwing the ball to Forte, to force the Vikes D to leave Marshall 1-on-1 on the outside, where he is a big matchup problem, even with Antoine Winfield playing at a high level this season. This would be a good week to get Devin Hester going as for whatever reason, he has really dominated the Vikings in his career. In 9 games vs. Minnesota (on offense) he has 23 catches for 384 yards and 5 TDs. Not eyepopping numbers but he's had more success vs. the Vikes than he's had vs. any other team. Minnesota has also had trouble this year with their LBs in coverage as RBs and TEs have had a lot of success in the passing game against them. It's time to get Forte back into the passing game, and give Evan Rodriguez a little more action.
On defense, it's not really a mystery what the Bears need to do. They gotta stop Adrian Peterson. The Bears have struggled in the past vs. Peterson, but it hasn't been from being beaten by the Vikings OL. Peterson's big games vs. the Bears have come when they haven't tackled well. The Bears gotta get 11 guys to the ball and bring him down on first or 2nd contact. With Percy Harvin looking like he's not going to go this week, the Bears pass D gets a little break. The Vikings will use a variety of receivers without Harvin, and while none of them should scare the Bears, they do have a few guys that can really take the top off of the defense. Jenkins, Wright, Aromashodu, and Simpson will all get looks deep at some point. The Bears DBs have done a pretty good job though this year not allowing much down the field. They've also done a pretty good job of trusting the front 6 or 7 (depending on if in nickel or not) to make tackles in the run game and staying with the called coverage.
With Cutler and the home field advantage, the Bears should be able to win this game against a Vikings team that is 1-3 on the road this year. But to do so, they have to tackle Peterson on 1st down. Force Christian Ponder into obvious passing situations and then get after an OL that has allowed its share of sacks this year. Ponder also has had his fair share of turnovers, but when he has been mistake free, his team has won. If the defense gets a turnover early and the offense can actually try scoring early for a change, the Vikings won't be able to comeback on the Bears D.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Week 11, BEARS @ Niners, Game Preview
Well, Sunday Night was a disaster. Lost a game, lost a quarterback, lost in my fantasy league due to Matt Forte and Robbie Gould's inability to get me 4 more points. But a 7-2 record is still pretty good (6-4 in this fantasy league after 3 straight single digits losses, if you care). Actually it's still better than every team in the NFL except the Falcons and Texans.
About those Texans...on the positive side, I feel like the Bears outplayed the Texans. They couldn't run the ball at all and turned the ball over way more than anyone would have liked, but Sunday surely didn't prove that the Bears can't hang with the NFLs elite teams. If the normally sure-handed Brandon Marshall and Forte make (difficult but make-able) catches, if the refs could correctly call a pass interference or review a replay that showed Cutler's back foot halfway behind the line of scrimmage, or if Kellen Davis didn't exist.....the Bears are an 8-1 team right now.
However, the Bears did lose and are facing another tough game, this time on the road, likely without starting QB, Jay Cutler. But on a positive note, the Bears shouldn't have to do much differently, as far as game planning goes for this week. Like the Texans, the 49ers are a run-heavy offense that relies on time of possession, though they're not as strong as Houston in that area. Like the Texans, the Niners rely very heavily on throwing the ball to their #1 WR and the TE, though they use their #2 (Manningham) more than Houston. Like the Texans, San Francisco uses a 3-4 defense to keep opponents off the board. They also are very strong against the run and have a dynamic pass rushing talent that the Bears have to keep track of at all times. But unlike Houston, the Niners are actually much more than an "efficient" running team. SF actually has been gashing team's run defenses to the tune of a league leading 5.6 yards per carry. Frank Gore is having the best season since he was a 23-year old, first time starting RB in his 2nd year in the NFL. That being said, they have not faced a run defense like the Bears this season. So, I believe that if they are going to run, it's going to have to be like the Texans' formula to run the ball 30+ times and expect less than 4 yards a pop.
As for the passing game, I have no qualms about Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings being able to almost shutdown Crabtree and Manningham on the outside. I do worry a lot about Vernon Davis and still have flashbacks of Randy Moss running thru the Bears secondary wearing a purple jersey. But Moss's effect should be minimal and Davis hasn't exactly been very dominant so far this year. So, I expect more of the same defense from last week, and all year really.
On offense, unfortunately, I'm also expecting more of the same. The Niners defense is basically a faster version of the Texans D. I don't expect the Bears patented sweeps with a pulling guard and center will work this week (didn't last week either). Though, I guess it is possible for the Bears to find similar minimal success off RG (Louis) that they did last week vs. Houston.
As for the passing game, the Bears did a lot of max protection against Houston's pass rush. Kept at least 1 TE and the RB in on almost all passing downs. As a result, Cutler had almost no pressure in the pocket all night. Of course, as luck would have it, he takes a huge (and very illegal) hit outside the pocket that leaves him questionable for this game. The downside of the max protection is that Mike Tice's play designs were frankly, terrible. On the majority of the plays, Forte was left in to block and stayed in to block. That left the #2 TE (Spaeth or Adams) as the checkdown target who leaked out of the backfield late. In fact, those check downs (Forte included) led to a whopping 8 yards on 6 catches between the 3 players. Unlike the Texans though, the Niners don't get anything from their D-line in the way of pass rush. The SF front 3 has combined for 1/2 a sack this year. Actually, Aldon Smith has 9.5 of the Niners 17 sacks as a team. So, honestly I'd like to see extra help given to whomever is lined up across from Smith. If that's Forte, it needs to be a solid chip and then get him out in a route. If that's a TE, Forte needs to be out in a route from the snap. The rest of the Niners haven't shown enough pass rush ability to give them too much attention. And at this point, the focus needs to be on moving the ball thru the air as well as possible. Getting Alshon Jeffery back should help immensely as, hopefully, it gives the Bears another target besides Brandon Marshall to throw to. While Brandon has been amazing this year and everything Bears fans could have hoped for, if a team can shut him down (the way GB did) the Bears cannot move the ball at all.
I honestly don't know what to expect in this game. Like last week, I don't expect these teams to rack up the yardage and big plays against each other. I do expect a few more points because of better weather, but maybe a 17-13 game instead of 13-6. But for some reason, I am very confident in the Bears in this game. Hester has seemed to get it going on special teams the last couple weeks, and I think he would have done a lot more damage on a non-disgusting field last weekend. I like the Bears edge in special teams. I love Cutler, but I'm interested to see Campbell play as he throws an excellent deep ball...which could be a big weapon in a game of evenly matched teams. I like the Bears to NOT turn the ball over 4 times, which has been the only way they have lost this year. And for whatever it is worth, I like the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on MNF under Lovie (just 1-6 on Sunday Nights). Most Bears fans were hoping for a split in these 2 games, it could still happen. It would put the Bears at 8-2 and in the driver's seat for a 1st round bye in the NFC.
About those Texans...on the positive side, I feel like the Bears outplayed the Texans. They couldn't run the ball at all and turned the ball over way more than anyone would have liked, but Sunday surely didn't prove that the Bears can't hang with the NFLs elite teams. If the normally sure-handed Brandon Marshall and Forte make (difficult but make-able) catches, if the refs could correctly call a pass interference or review a replay that showed Cutler's back foot halfway behind the line of scrimmage, or if Kellen Davis didn't exist.....the Bears are an 8-1 team right now.
However, the Bears did lose and are facing another tough game, this time on the road, likely without starting QB, Jay Cutler. But on a positive note, the Bears shouldn't have to do much differently, as far as game planning goes for this week. Like the Texans, the 49ers are a run-heavy offense that relies on time of possession, though they're not as strong as Houston in that area. Like the Texans, the Niners rely very heavily on throwing the ball to their #1 WR and the TE, though they use their #2 (Manningham) more than Houston. Like the Texans, San Francisco uses a 3-4 defense to keep opponents off the board. They also are very strong against the run and have a dynamic pass rushing talent that the Bears have to keep track of at all times. But unlike Houston, the Niners are actually much more than an "efficient" running team. SF actually has been gashing team's run defenses to the tune of a league leading 5.6 yards per carry. Frank Gore is having the best season since he was a 23-year old, first time starting RB in his 2nd year in the NFL. That being said, they have not faced a run defense like the Bears this season. So, I believe that if they are going to run, it's going to have to be like the Texans' formula to run the ball 30+ times and expect less than 4 yards a pop.
As for the passing game, I have no qualms about Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings being able to almost shutdown Crabtree and Manningham on the outside. I do worry a lot about Vernon Davis and still have flashbacks of Randy Moss running thru the Bears secondary wearing a purple jersey. But Moss's effect should be minimal and Davis hasn't exactly been very dominant so far this year. So, I expect more of the same defense from last week, and all year really.
On offense, unfortunately, I'm also expecting more of the same. The Niners defense is basically a faster version of the Texans D. I don't expect the Bears patented sweeps with a pulling guard and center will work this week (didn't last week either). Though, I guess it is possible for the Bears to find similar minimal success off RG (Louis) that they did last week vs. Houston.
As for the passing game, the Bears did a lot of max protection against Houston's pass rush. Kept at least 1 TE and the RB in on almost all passing downs. As a result, Cutler had almost no pressure in the pocket all night. Of course, as luck would have it, he takes a huge (and very illegal) hit outside the pocket that leaves him questionable for this game. The downside of the max protection is that Mike Tice's play designs were frankly, terrible. On the majority of the plays, Forte was left in to block and stayed in to block. That left the #2 TE (Spaeth or Adams) as the checkdown target who leaked out of the backfield late. In fact, those check downs (Forte included) led to a whopping 8 yards on 6 catches between the 3 players. Unlike the Texans though, the Niners don't get anything from their D-line in the way of pass rush. The SF front 3 has combined for 1/2 a sack this year. Actually, Aldon Smith has 9.5 of the Niners 17 sacks as a team. So, honestly I'd like to see extra help given to whomever is lined up across from Smith. If that's Forte, it needs to be a solid chip and then get him out in a route. If that's a TE, Forte needs to be out in a route from the snap. The rest of the Niners haven't shown enough pass rush ability to give them too much attention. And at this point, the focus needs to be on moving the ball thru the air as well as possible. Getting Alshon Jeffery back should help immensely as, hopefully, it gives the Bears another target besides Brandon Marshall to throw to. While Brandon has been amazing this year and everything Bears fans could have hoped for, if a team can shut him down (the way GB did) the Bears cannot move the ball at all.
I honestly don't know what to expect in this game. Like last week, I don't expect these teams to rack up the yardage and big plays against each other. I do expect a few more points because of better weather, but maybe a 17-13 game instead of 13-6. But for some reason, I am very confident in the Bears in this game. Hester has seemed to get it going on special teams the last couple weeks, and I think he would have done a lot more damage on a non-disgusting field last weekend. I like the Bears edge in special teams. I love Cutler, but I'm interested to see Campbell play as he throws an excellent deep ball...which could be a big weapon in a game of evenly matched teams. I like the Bears to NOT turn the ball over 4 times, which has been the only way they have lost this year. And for whatever it is worth, I like the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on MNF under Lovie (just 1-6 on Sunday Nights). Most Bears fans were hoping for a split in these 2 games, it could still happen. It would put the Bears at 8-2 and in the driver's seat for a 1st round bye in the NFC.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Week 10, BEARS vs. Texans, Game Preview
Well, halfway thru the season and the Bears are in the midst of almost a best case scenario. 7-1 with the league's best point differential. But frankly, this is where the Bears should be with the schedule they've had. But the cupcakes are all done. The Bears don't face another team with a losing record right now until Week 16 in Arizona. And they open the 3rd quarter of the season with a tough, mirror image matchup vs. the Houston Texans.
A matchup I'm really looking forward to when the Texans have the ball is Charles "Peanut" Tillman vs. Andre Johnson. The last time these 2 teams met was Week 17, the 2008 Bears were 9-6 and needed a win in Houston to get into the playoffs. But Johnson, primarily covered by Tillman, went off for 10 catches, 148 yards and 2 TDs, including ripping a TD pass away from the Bears big, physical CB. But that was then, this is now. Johnson has been slowed down by injuries and isn't the best WR in the league the way he was in '08, but he's still pretty good. Tillman was pretty good then, but was not the potential defensive MVP back then either. Not that I'm expecting Peanut to force Johnson to fumble 4 times this game, but it should be a really good matchup with Tillman having won a similar matchup already this year vs. Calvin Johnson. If the Bears can come out on the right side of this matchup, the Texans don't have too much else to go to. Their 2nd WR is Kevin Walter, and even with the size advantage, I'll take Tim Jennings in that matchup, especially if Tillman can allow the Bears to give him safety help. The Texans get almost nothing else from any other WR, with only 8 catches from the rest of the WR depth chart. The key will be how the Bears handle the combo of FB-James Casey, and TEs Garrett Graham and Owen Daniels, who may just be Schaub's favorite target. Chris Conte looked very good in coverage against the Titans TEs, and if he can carry that over to Week 10, it's going to be tough for Houston to throw the ball against the Bears, especially down the field. Arian Foster has been a good receiver in the past, but hasn't done much out of the backfield so far in 2012.
Speaking of Foster.....for a team that is considered a pretty good running team, the Texans actually aren't anything special running the ball. While the Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards per game, they are only averaging a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry, good for 18th in the league. That's in the same class as teams like the Colts, Bengals and Lions. They also don't break a ton of big runs. Arian Foster only has 4 runs of 20+ yards, included in his league leading 192 total carries. In comparison, Forte has 3 runs over 20 in 109 carries. What Houston does do is hit you with volume in the run game. The Texans lead the league in time of possession. Because of all the 2-tight sets and sets they run with a FB, the Texans have been able to get teams to commit a lot of bodies into the box, creating playaction heaven for Schaub. The Bears, however, are the league's best team vs. the playaction, allowing just 45% completions after run fakes. This is mainly due to the discipline and quickness of the Bears LBs to react, and also the fact that the CBs and safeties don't have to be in a hurry to help the front 7 stop the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans have their own defensive POTY candidate, JJ Watt. An interesting matchup will be Gabe Carimi vs. Watt, in a battle of former Wisconsin teammates. Hopefully, Carimi learned a few things in practice on how to block Watt, because nobody else has been able to. And Carimi, honestly hasn't been able to hold off many pass rushers so far this year. But Carimi will mostly see Watt in the run game (lines up over the RT in run downs). In the passing game, Watt will see a lot of Lance Louis, as he typically lines up at more of a 4-3 DT in their nickel package. I kind of like this matchup. Louis will get pretty physical with him and won't be pushed back into the pocket the way Watt has done most of his opponents this year. The Bears will still have a lot of trouble, though, blocking the edge rush. And with the Texans being one of the toughest teams to run on, the quick passing game is going to be the Bears best hope for moving the ball. Jonathan Joseph is very beatable, especially when you're talking about Brandon Marshall on the opposite end. I also like Bennett vs. their nickel, Brice McCain, but that's going to require time to throw to fully utilize him.
Long story short, nobody's going to be lighting up the scoreboard Sunday night. The Bears offense has had it's struggles. The Houston offense is efficient, but doesn't have many weapons. They also don't make many mistakes allowing the Bears D to take advantage either. The key for the Bears is going to be to play mistake free football. None of the stupid false starts on the OL. Cutler has to protect that ball when he gets pressured, which he will often. And the Bears have to stay disciplined in their gap defense and in their run/pass keys during playaction situations. Where the Bears do have a huge advantage is special teams. Houston is middle of the pack in kickoff coverage, but have allowed the 2nd most KO returns in a touchback heavy era of football. They are also bottom 10 in punt return average allowed, and have not faced a returner like Devin Hester. So, in a game where all else looks to be pretty equal, the Bears ability to make a special teams play could be the difference in the game.
A matchup I'm really looking forward to when the Texans have the ball is Charles "Peanut" Tillman vs. Andre Johnson. The last time these 2 teams met was Week 17, the 2008 Bears were 9-6 and needed a win in Houston to get into the playoffs. But Johnson, primarily covered by Tillman, went off for 10 catches, 148 yards and 2 TDs, including ripping a TD pass away from the Bears big, physical CB. But that was then, this is now. Johnson has been slowed down by injuries and isn't the best WR in the league the way he was in '08, but he's still pretty good. Tillman was pretty good then, but was not the potential defensive MVP back then either. Not that I'm expecting Peanut to force Johnson to fumble 4 times this game, but it should be a really good matchup with Tillman having won a similar matchup already this year vs. Calvin Johnson. If the Bears can come out on the right side of this matchup, the Texans don't have too much else to go to. Their 2nd WR is Kevin Walter, and even with the size advantage, I'll take Tim Jennings in that matchup, especially if Tillman can allow the Bears to give him safety help. The Texans get almost nothing else from any other WR, with only 8 catches from the rest of the WR depth chart. The key will be how the Bears handle the combo of FB-James Casey, and TEs Garrett Graham and Owen Daniels, who may just be Schaub's favorite target. Chris Conte looked very good in coverage against the Titans TEs, and if he can carry that over to Week 10, it's going to be tough for Houston to throw the ball against the Bears, especially down the field. Arian Foster has been a good receiver in the past, but hasn't done much out of the backfield so far in 2012.
Speaking of Foster.....for a team that is considered a pretty good running team, the Texans actually aren't anything special running the ball. While the Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards per game, they are only averaging a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry, good for 18th in the league. That's in the same class as teams like the Colts, Bengals and Lions. They also don't break a ton of big runs. Arian Foster only has 4 runs of 20+ yards, included in his league leading 192 total carries. In comparison, Forte has 3 runs over 20 in 109 carries. What Houston does do is hit you with volume in the run game. The Texans lead the league in time of possession. Because of all the 2-tight sets and sets they run with a FB, the Texans have been able to get teams to commit a lot of bodies into the box, creating playaction heaven for Schaub. The Bears, however, are the league's best team vs. the playaction, allowing just 45% completions after run fakes. This is mainly due to the discipline and quickness of the Bears LBs to react, and also the fact that the CBs and safeties don't have to be in a hurry to help the front 7 stop the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans have their own defensive POTY candidate, JJ Watt. An interesting matchup will be Gabe Carimi vs. Watt, in a battle of former Wisconsin teammates. Hopefully, Carimi learned a few things in practice on how to block Watt, because nobody else has been able to. And Carimi, honestly hasn't been able to hold off many pass rushers so far this year. But Carimi will mostly see Watt in the run game (lines up over the RT in run downs). In the passing game, Watt will see a lot of Lance Louis, as he typically lines up at more of a 4-3 DT in their nickel package. I kind of like this matchup. Louis will get pretty physical with him and won't be pushed back into the pocket the way Watt has done most of his opponents this year. The Bears will still have a lot of trouble, though, blocking the edge rush. And with the Texans being one of the toughest teams to run on, the quick passing game is going to be the Bears best hope for moving the ball. Jonathan Joseph is very beatable, especially when you're talking about Brandon Marshall on the opposite end. I also like Bennett vs. their nickel, Brice McCain, but that's going to require time to throw to fully utilize him.
Long story short, nobody's going to be lighting up the scoreboard Sunday night. The Bears offense has had it's struggles. The Houston offense is efficient, but doesn't have many weapons. They also don't make many mistakes allowing the Bears D to take advantage either. The key for the Bears is going to be to play mistake free football. None of the stupid false starts on the OL. Cutler has to protect that ball when he gets pressured, which he will often. And the Bears have to stay disciplined in their gap defense and in their run/pass keys during playaction situations. Where the Bears do have a huge advantage is special teams. Houston is middle of the pack in kickoff coverage, but have allowed the 2nd most KO returns in a touchback heavy era of football. They are also bottom 10 in punt return average allowed, and have not faced a returner like Devin Hester. So, in a game where all else looks to be pretty equal, the Bears ability to make a special teams play could be the difference in the game.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Week 9, BEARS @ Titans, Game Preview
Well, last week I started off with talking about how good the defense has been....and they proceeded to give up over 400 yards of total offense to the struggling Panthers. So naturally, this week I'll start with how bad the offense has been.
Despite being a respectable 8th in the league in points scored, after this week's performance vs. Carolina, the Bears are now 26th in total offense. And while being the 6th least productive offense is bad enough, the Bears are that far down in the rankings despite being 9th in the league in rushing. Which means, the passing game has been really bad. Even worse, the passing game has been bad despite boasting the 3rd most productive WR in the NFL (and #1 in the NFC), Brandon Marshall. The offensive line that looked decent giving up 3 sacks in the 2 games before the bye, has given up 11 in the last two, including 6 in the 1st half Sunday when Carolina was trying. The Bears are now 2nd in the league in sacks allowed per game, after making it to respectability after the GB game.
But I don't want to put it all on the OL. The playcalling has been Martz-esque, the receivers have had drops, and frankly, the quarterback play hasn't been as good as it's needed to be. First off, Mike Tice has proven that he should not be anything more than an OL coach. Matt Forte isn't getting enough touches, despite getting 4.6 yards per carry. In addition, Michael Bush has only touched the ball 16 times in the last 3 games after being a vital part of the offense early on. There's been too many deep drops and when there is a quick throw, nobody other than Marshall can get open. Honestly though, the quick slant or out to Marshall been the best offense the Bears have had. But overall, Tice has called a very boring route tree, with very few wrinkles to get guys open. Marshall has been open based on pure talent, but guys like Hester and Bennett need some help. I'd like to see more rub routes, crossing routes, double moves, or something to get other guys open. The Bears are still very susceptible to a team that can execute the Packers gameplan to keep the ball away from Brandon Marshall. I'd also like to see more screens to Forte to slow down the pass rush. I'd like to see more of Hester in the slot, as he's clearly shown he's not much of an outside WR. He needs space, but cannot beat press coverage to save his life.
As for Cutler, you won't find a bigger fan of him than me. Love the guy. His 4th quarter vs. the Panthers was masterful and confident. In fact, he leads the league with a 132 QB rating in the 4th quarter, but he combats that by being worst in the league in the opening quarter. Jay needs to make a conscious effort to not let himself get taken out of his game early. I hate to feed into the Chicago media's BS, but he needs to be stronger mentally early in games. Cutler got sacked on the first play of the Colts game....throws pick 6 next drive, then the Bears have to spend a couple drives with short, quick passes to get Jay comfortable again. Got sacked on the 1st play again in Week 2, never really settled down in that game as when the offense was unleashed he threw INTs or got sacked in obvious passing downs. The Bears justifiably dumbed down the offense in the Detroit game with Cutler having injured ribs. But we saw the same thing happen on Sunday after 6 first half sacks. Not sure if it's on Cutler or Tice/Martz, but the last few years, when Jay has taken some hits or made mistakes with the ball, the playcalling has gone to near middle school levels for a drive or two afterward. While I understand the point of simplifying things, Jay Cutler is a good QB. If the Bears are going to throw quick slants and outs, they could have Jason Campbell out there. This is not to say I think the Bears should keep letting Jay take 7 step drops and get hit all day, but you gotta mix it up. Throw some quick slants early to set up the double move. Get the run game going to set up the playaction. Pass blocking isn't the only way to stop a pass rush. Giving them something else to think about besides getting after the QB is also a key. Don't wait until the OL proves they can't block the front 4 before you give them some help. Don't max protect leaving Marshall and 1 other target to get open vs. 7 pass defenders.
As for the game at hand, if there's a game the offense can snap out of it.....the Titans are REALLY bad on defense. That being said, they have played New England, Detroit, Houston, and Pittsburgh, along with getting San Diego and Minnesota when they were hot offensively. But they've also given up over 900 yards to the Bills and Colts the last 2 weeks. They've allowed teams to run the ball at will, they've allowed yards to WRs, TEs, RBs in the passing game. QBs have a whopping 105.8 passer rating against them. If the Bears can't get the offense going this week, it's going to have to wait even longer with Houston and San Francisco next on the schedule. Whereas I pointed out that the Panthers were not a team you could beat down the field (Cutler INT when he went deep, picked them apart when got rid of the ball quickly)...everything should be at the Bears disposal vs. the Titans.
On the other side of the ball, I actually do worry about the defense a little in this one. The Titans actually have a lot of weapons. Nate Washington has deep speed. Kenny Britt is a big target. Kendall Wright is an up-and-coming 1st round pick. I worry about the Bears matching up vs. whoever is in the slot and against the Titans TEs, led by Jared Cook. And the Bears have typically had trouble with speedy RBs, though they faced Chris Johnson as a rookie and gave up 8 yards on 14 carries. But if they aren't disciplined in their gap assignments in the front 7, you could see flashbacks of last year in Detroit when Jahvid Best got loose for a couple huge runs. Also, the Panthers showed that you can dump the ball down all game against the Bears D and force them to make tackles, which sometimes they don't do well. Hasselbeck has a history of being a patient QB that takes what the defense gives him if he doesn't get pressured. Hass has thrown 6 TDs with no INTs in his last 3 games vs. the Bears, though one of those was way back in 2007. So, obviously the key here is to stop the run first, force Tennessee into long passing downs, then getting pressure on Hasselbeck. Not much difference from any other game, but especially important against an elite RB and a 37-year old QB who has never done well vs. a strong pass rush.
I think you could see somewhat of a shootout in this game. If the pass rush doesn't show up, Hasselbeck can pick the D apart, especially in the 2-tight formation with Cook/Stevens. I do think the offense will finally score, and score enough to win this game and end the first half of the season at 7-1, but this is not a gimme game by any means.
Despite being a respectable 8th in the league in points scored, after this week's performance vs. Carolina, the Bears are now 26th in total offense. And while being the 6th least productive offense is bad enough, the Bears are that far down in the rankings despite being 9th in the league in rushing. Which means, the passing game has been really bad. Even worse, the passing game has been bad despite boasting the 3rd most productive WR in the NFL (and #1 in the NFC), Brandon Marshall. The offensive line that looked decent giving up 3 sacks in the 2 games before the bye, has given up 11 in the last two, including 6 in the 1st half Sunday when Carolina was trying. The Bears are now 2nd in the league in sacks allowed per game, after making it to respectability after the GB game.
But I don't want to put it all on the OL. The playcalling has been Martz-esque, the receivers have had drops, and frankly, the quarterback play hasn't been as good as it's needed to be. First off, Mike Tice has proven that he should not be anything more than an OL coach. Matt Forte isn't getting enough touches, despite getting 4.6 yards per carry. In addition, Michael Bush has only touched the ball 16 times in the last 3 games after being a vital part of the offense early on. There's been too many deep drops and when there is a quick throw, nobody other than Marshall can get open. Honestly though, the quick slant or out to Marshall been the best offense the Bears have had. But overall, Tice has called a very boring route tree, with very few wrinkles to get guys open. Marshall has been open based on pure talent, but guys like Hester and Bennett need some help. I'd like to see more rub routes, crossing routes, double moves, or something to get other guys open. The Bears are still very susceptible to a team that can execute the Packers gameplan to keep the ball away from Brandon Marshall. I'd also like to see more screens to Forte to slow down the pass rush. I'd like to see more of Hester in the slot, as he's clearly shown he's not much of an outside WR. He needs space, but cannot beat press coverage to save his life.
As for Cutler, you won't find a bigger fan of him than me. Love the guy. His 4th quarter vs. the Panthers was masterful and confident. In fact, he leads the league with a 132 QB rating in the 4th quarter, but he combats that by being worst in the league in the opening quarter. Jay needs to make a conscious effort to not let himself get taken out of his game early. I hate to feed into the Chicago media's BS, but he needs to be stronger mentally early in games. Cutler got sacked on the first play of the Colts game....throws pick 6 next drive, then the Bears have to spend a couple drives with short, quick passes to get Jay comfortable again. Got sacked on the 1st play again in Week 2, never really settled down in that game as when the offense was unleashed he threw INTs or got sacked in obvious passing downs. The Bears justifiably dumbed down the offense in the Detroit game with Cutler having injured ribs. But we saw the same thing happen on Sunday after 6 first half sacks. Not sure if it's on Cutler or Tice/Martz, but the last few years, when Jay has taken some hits or made mistakes with the ball, the playcalling has gone to near middle school levels for a drive or two afterward. While I understand the point of simplifying things, Jay Cutler is a good QB. If the Bears are going to throw quick slants and outs, they could have Jason Campbell out there. This is not to say I think the Bears should keep letting Jay take 7 step drops and get hit all day, but you gotta mix it up. Throw some quick slants early to set up the double move. Get the run game going to set up the playaction. Pass blocking isn't the only way to stop a pass rush. Giving them something else to think about besides getting after the QB is also a key. Don't wait until the OL proves they can't block the front 4 before you give them some help. Don't max protect leaving Marshall and 1 other target to get open vs. 7 pass defenders.
As for the game at hand, if there's a game the offense can snap out of it.....the Titans are REALLY bad on defense. That being said, they have played New England, Detroit, Houston, and Pittsburgh, along with getting San Diego and Minnesota when they were hot offensively. But they've also given up over 900 yards to the Bills and Colts the last 2 weeks. They've allowed teams to run the ball at will, they've allowed yards to WRs, TEs, RBs in the passing game. QBs have a whopping 105.8 passer rating against them. If the Bears can't get the offense going this week, it's going to have to wait even longer with Houston and San Francisco next on the schedule. Whereas I pointed out that the Panthers were not a team you could beat down the field (Cutler INT when he went deep, picked them apart when got rid of the ball quickly)...everything should be at the Bears disposal vs. the Titans.
On the other side of the ball, I actually do worry about the defense a little in this one. The Titans actually have a lot of weapons. Nate Washington has deep speed. Kenny Britt is a big target. Kendall Wright is an up-and-coming 1st round pick. I worry about the Bears matching up vs. whoever is in the slot and against the Titans TEs, led by Jared Cook. And the Bears have typically had trouble with speedy RBs, though they faced Chris Johnson as a rookie and gave up 8 yards on 14 carries. But if they aren't disciplined in their gap assignments in the front 7, you could see flashbacks of last year in Detroit when Jahvid Best got loose for a couple huge runs. Also, the Panthers showed that you can dump the ball down all game against the Bears D and force them to make tackles, which sometimes they don't do well. Hasselbeck has a history of being a patient QB that takes what the defense gives him if he doesn't get pressured. Hass has thrown 6 TDs with no INTs in his last 3 games vs. the Bears, though one of those was way back in 2007. So, obviously the key here is to stop the run first, force Tennessee into long passing downs, then getting pressure on Hasselbeck. Not much difference from any other game, but especially important against an elite RB and a 37-year old QB who has never done well vs. a strong pass rush.
I think you could see somewhat of a shootout in this game. If the pass rush doesn't show up, Hasselbeck can pick the D apart, especially in the 2-tight formation with Cook/Stevens. I do think the offense will finally score, and score enough to win this game and end the first half of the season at 7-1, but this is not a gimme game by any means.
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