Week 9, BEARS @ Titans, Game Preview

Well, last week I started off with talking about how good the defense has been....and they proceeded to give up over 400 yards of total offense to the struggling Panthers.  So naturally, this week I'll start with how bad the offense has been. 

Despite being a respectable 8th in the league in points scored, after this week's performance vs. Carolina, the Bears are now 26th in total offense.  And while being the 6th least productive offense is bad enough, the Bears are that far down in the rankings despite being 9th in the league in rushing.  Which means, the passing game has been really bad.  Even worse, the passing game has been bad despite boasting the 3rd most productive WR in the NFL (and #1 in the NFC), Brandon Marshall.  The offensive line that looked decent giving up 3 sacks in the 2 games before the bye, has given up 11 in the last two, including 6 in the 1st half Sunday when Carolina was trying.  The Bears are now 2nd in the league in sacks allowed per game, after making it to respectability after the GB game.

But I don't want to put it all on the OL.  The playcalling has been Martz-esque, the receivers have had drops, and frankly, the quarterback play hasn't been as good as it's needed to be.  First off, Mike Tice has proven that he should not be anything more than an OL coach.  Matt Forte isn't getting enough touches, despite getting 4.6 yards per carry.  In addition, Michael Bush has only touched the ball 16 times in the last 3 games after being a vital part of the offense early on.  There's been too many deep drops and when there is a quick throw, nobody other than Marshall can get open.  Honestly though, the quick slant or out to Marshall been the best offense the Bears have had.  But overall, Tice has called a very boring route tree, with very few wrinkles to get guys open.  Marshall has been open based on pure talent, but guys like Hester and Bennett need some help.  I'd like to see more rub routes, crossing routes, double moves, or something to get other guys open.  The Bears are still very susceptible to a team that can execute the Packers gameplan to keep the ball away from Brandon Marshall.  I'd also like to see more screens to Forte to slow down the pass rush.  I'd like to see more of Hester in the slot, as he's clearly shown he's not much of an outside WR.  He needs space, but cannot beat press coverage to save his life.

As for Cutler, you won't find a bigger fan of him than me.  Love the guy.  His 4th quarter vs. the Panthers was masterful and confident.  In fact, he leads the league with a 132 QB rating in the 4th quarter, but he combats that by being worst in the league in the opening quarter.  Jay needs to make a conscious effort to not let himself get taken out of his game early.  I hate to feed into the Chicago media's BS, but he needs to be stronger mentally early in games.  Cutler got sacked on the first play of the Colts game....throws pick 6 next drive, then the Bears have to spend a couple drives with short, quick passes to get Jay comfortable again.  Got sacked on the 1st play again in Week 2, never really settled down in that game as when the offense was unleashed he threw INTs or got sacked in obvious passing downs.  The Bears justifiably dumbed down the offense in the Detroit game with Cutler having injured ribs.  But we saw the same thing happen on Sunday after 6 first half sacks.  Not sure if it's on Cutler or Tice/Martz, but the last few years, when Jay has taken some hits or made mistakes with the ball, the playcalling has gone to near middle school levels for a drive or two afterward.  While I understand the point of simplifying things, Jay Cutler is a good QB.  If the Bears are going to throw quick slants and outs, they could have Jason Campbell out there.  This is not to say I think the Bears should keep letting Jay take 7 step drops and get hit all day, but you gotta mix it up.  Throw some quick slants early to set up the double move.  Get the run game going to set up the playaction.  Pass blocking isn't the only way to stop a pass rush.  Giving them something else to think about besides getting after the QB is also a key.  Don't wait until the OL proves they can't block the front 4 before you give them some help.  Don't max protect leaving Marshall and 1 other target to get open vs. 7 pass defenders.

As for the game at hand, if there's a game the offense can snap out of it.....the Titans are REALLY bad on defense.  That being said, they have played New England, Detroit, Houston, and Pittsburgh, along with getting San Diego and Minnesota when they were hot offensively.  But they've also given up over 900 yards to the Bills and Colts the last 2 weeks.  They've allowed teams to run the ball at will, they've allowed yards to WRs, TEs, RBs in the passing game.  QBs have a whopping 105.8 passer rating against them.  If the Bears can't get the offense going this week, it's going to have to wait even longer with Houston and San Francisco next on the schedule. Whereas I pointed out that the Panthers were not a team you could beat down the field (Cutler INT when he went deep, picked them apart when got rid of the ball quickly)...everything should be at the Bears disposal vs. the Titans. 

On the other side of the ball, I actually do worry about the defense a little in this one.  The Titans actually have a lot of weapons.  Nate Washington has deep speed.  Kenny Britt is a big target.  Kendall Wright is an up-and-coming 1st round pick.  I worry about the Bears matching up vs. whoever is in the slot and against the Titans TEs, led by Jared Cook.  And the Bears have typically had trouble with speedy RBs, though they faced Chris Johnson as a rookie and gave up 8 yards on 14 carries.  But if they aren't disciplined in their gap assignments in the front 7, you could see flashbacks of last year in Detroit when Jahvid Best got loose for a couple huge runs.  Also, the Panthers showed that you can dump the ball down all game against the Bears D and force them to make tackles, which sometimes they don't do well.   Hasselbeck has a history of being a patient QB that takes what the defense gives him if he doesn't get pressured.  Hass has thrown 6 TDs with no INTs in his last 3 games vs. the Bears, though one of those was way back in 2007.  So, obviously the key here is to stop the run first, force Tennessee into long passing downs, then getting pressure on Hasselbeck.  Not much difference from any other game, but especially important against an elite RB and a 37-year old QB who has never done well vs. a strong pass rush.

I think you could see somewhat of a shootout in this game.  If the pass rush doesn't show up, Hasselbeck can pick the D apart, especially in the 2-tight formation with Cook/Stevens.  I do think the offense will finally score, and score enough to win this game and end the first half of the season at 7-1, but this is not a gimme game by any means.