Week 11, BEARS @ Niners, Game Preview

Well, Sunday Night was a disaster.  Lost a game, lost a quarterback, lost in my fantasy league due to Matt Forte and Robbie Gould's inability to get me 4 more points.  But a 7-2 record is still pretty good (6-4 in this fantasy league after 3 straight single digits losses, if you care).  Actually it's still better than every team in the NFL except the Falcons and Texans. 

About those Texans...on the positive side, I feel like the Bears outplayed the Texans.  They couldn't run the ball at all and turned the ball over way more than anyone would have liked, but Sunday surely didn't prove that the Bears can't hang with the NFLs elite teams.  If the normally sure-handed Brandon Marshall and Forte make (difficult but make-able) catches, if the refs could correctly call a pass interference or review a replay that showed Cutler's back foot halfway behind the line of scrimmage, or if Kellen Davis didn't exist.....the Bears are an 8-1 team right now. 

However, the Bears did lose and are facing another tough game, this time on the road, likely without starting QB, Jay Cutler.  But on a positive note, the Bears shouldn't have to do much differently, as far as game planning goes for this week.  Like the Texans, the 49ers are a run-heavy offense that relies on time of possession, though they're not as strong as Houston in that area.  Like the Texans, the Niners rely very heavily on throwing the ball to their #1 WR and the TE, though they use their #2 (Manningham) more than Houston.  Like the Texans, San Francisco uses a 3-4 defense to keep opponents off the board.  They also are very strong against the run and have a dynamic pass rushing talent that the Bears have to keep track of at all times.  But unlike Houston, the Niners are actually much more than an "efficient" running team.  SF actually has been gashing team's run defenses to the tune of a league leading 5.6 yards per carry.  Frank Gore is having the best season since he was a 23-year old, first time starting RB in his 2nd year in the NFL.  That being said, they have not faced a run defense like the Bears this season.  So, I believe that if they are going to run, it's going to have to be like the Texans' formula to run the ball 30+ times and expect less than 4 yards a pop. 

As for the passing game, I have no qualms about Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings being able to almost shutdown Crabtree and Manningham on the outside.  I do worry a lot about Vernon Davis and still have flashbacks of Randy Moss running thru the Bears secondary wearing a purple jersey.  But Moss's effect should be minimal and Davis hasn't exactly been very dominant so far this year.  So, I expect more of the same defense from last week, and all year really.

On offense, unfortunately, I'm also expecting more of the same.  The Niners defense is basically a faster version of the Texans D.  I don't expect the Bears patented sweeps with a pulling guard and center will work this week (didn't last week either).  Though, I guess it is possible for the Bears to find similar minimal success off RG (Louis) that they did last week vs. Houston. 

As for the passing game, the Bears did a lot of max protection against Houston's pass rush.  Kept at least 1 TE and the RB in on almost all passing downs.  As a result, Cutler had almost no pressure in the pocket all night.  Of course, as luck would have it, he takes a huge (and very illegal) hit outside the pocket that leaves him questionable for this game.  The downside of the max protection is that Mike Tice's play designs were frankly, terrible.  On the majority of the plays, Forte was left in to block and stayed in to block.  That left the #2 TE (Spaeth or Adams) as the checkdown target who leaked out of the backfield late.  In fact, those check downs (Forte included) led to a whopping 8 yards on 6 catches between the 3 players.  Unlike the Texans though, the Niners don't get anything from their D-line in the way of pass rush.  The SF front 3 has combined for 1/2 a sack this year.  Actually, Aldon Smith has 9.5 of the Niners 17 sacks as a team.  So, honestly I'd like to see extra help given to whomever is lined up across from Smith.  If that's Forte, it needs to be a solid chip and then get him out in a route.  If that's a TE, Forte needs to be out in a route from the snap.  The rest of the Niners haven't shown enough pass rush ability to give them too much attention.  And at this point, the focus needs to be on moving the ball thru the air as well as possible.  Getting Alshon Jeffery back should help immensely as, hopefully, it gives the Bears another target besides Brandon Marshall to throw to.  While Brandon has been amazing this year and everything Bears fans could have hoped for, if a team can shut him down (the way GB did) the Bears cannot move the ball at all. 

I honestly don't know what to expect in this game.  Like last week, I don't expect these teams to rack up the yardage and big plays against each other.  I do expect a few more points because of better weather, but maybe a 17-13 game instead of 13-6.  But for some reason, I am very confident in the Bears in this game.  Hester has seemed to get it going on special teams the last couple weeks, and I think he would have done a lot more damage on a non-disgusting field last weekend.  I like the Bears edge in special teams.  I love Cutler, but I'm interested to see Campbell play as he throws an excellent deep ball...which could be a big weapon in a game of evenly matched teams.  I like the Bears to NOT turn the ball over 4 times, which has been the only way they have lost this year.  And for whatever it is worth, I like the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on MNF under Lovie (just 1-6 on Sunday Nights).  Most Bears fans were hoping for a split in these 2 games, it could still happen.  It would put the Bears at 8-2 and in the driver's seat for a 1st round bye in the NFC.