Week 5: CHICAGO BEARS v. New Orleans Saints

Well, the first quarter of the season is in the books.  The Bears had their ups, and most recently their downs.  The offense looks better than it has since Erik Kramer.  The defense still turns the opposition over, better than anyone else.  But Cutler has made some bad turnovers, with many of them leading to opponents’ points.  When not taking the ball away, the defense has uncharacteristically allowed too many yards and too many points on way too many big plays.  And special teams has given up a few big plays themselves.  While 3-1 is a great start to the season, the Bears clearly have to play better if they want to be a championship caliber team.

Week 5 brings an undefeated Saints team.  The Saints look to be a similar opponent to Detroit. Top 5 offensive team that features a huge receiving target that presents matchup problems for any defense.  Whereas Calvin Johnson could be somewhat neutralized with the great play of Charles Tillman and bracket coverage by a deep safety, the Saints big target (Jimmy Graham) will be covered by a LB or safety primarily in most sets.  And while James Anderson has been wonderful in coverage so far, he saw Graham twice per year when he was in Carolina, and Graham lit up the Panthers to an average of 8 catches and 103 yards, with a TD in all but 1 of the last 4 games against them.  And as I said last week about Johnson, Graham is probably going to get his numbers….the key is stopping the other big weapon, Darren Sproles.  

While the story of the Week 4 loss was Cutler’s turnovers, an issue just as big was the failure of the defense to stop Reggie Bush.  Strangely, it was on the ground (not the air) where the Bears defense struggled to contain Bush.  Sproles took Bush’s spot in the NO offense, and despite his great quickness, I don’t think he’s the same type of player as Bush.  Sproles doesn’t have Bush’s lateral ability, which the Bears have historically had trouble with.  He’s plenty fast, but is much more of a straight-line runner than Bush.  But Sproles is a much better receiver than Bush and the Saints will consistently use him in the passing game, whether as a checkdown or primary when 1-on-1 with a linebacker.  Sproles will catch his share of passes, but the key is to get him down immediately and not allow him to get into the open field.  

I’d actually like to see the Bears take an unconventional approach against Brees.  Lance Moore remains out, and I that really weakens their 3-wide set.  That leaves just rookie Kenny Stills, and either Robert Meachem or Nick Toon as the wideouts along w/ Marques Colston.  Or they’ll put Graham outside, allowing a CB to cover him.  I trust Tillman to man up on Colston.  Brees would throw it to me if I was open, but I trust Jennings and Frey (who has played really well so far at nickel) to man up on any of the other 2 WRs.  And with the Bears struggling to get any pressure up the middle last week in Detroit with Melton out and Paea missing a lot of the game, I’d like to see the Bears bring some pressure up the middle, as they did with success in Pittsburgh.  Conventional wisdom says you don’t blitz an elite QB, but Brees has had INT issues in the past and his OL isn’t anything special.  Blitzing also leaves the Bears susceptible to Sproles out of the backfield, but that’s where the Bears put all the extra work on tackling drills they did in practice this week to work.  Obviously, this isn’t an every down proposition, but despite the similarities to the Lions, the Bears can’t sit back and let Brees pick them apart in an attempt to prevent the big play.  

Offensively, it’s just gotta be more of the same for the Bears, minus the turnovers.  Get the ball to Forte.  The Bears have had a lot of success running to the right, with big plays each of the last 2 weeks in that direction.  And lost in the Saints 13.8 points per game allowed, is the fact they allow a league high 5.5 yards per carry.  In the air, Cutler has spread the ball around, giving sufficient targets to all of Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Jeffery, Forte, and mixing in just enough Earl Bennett to keep defenses honest.  In fact, this offense has looked a bit like a poor man’s Saints offense.  Probably not a coincidence considering former Saints coach, Aaron Kromer is the offensive coordinator.  

Like Brees, Cutler is at his best when he gets the ball out of his hands quickly.  Also when at his best, Brees is spreading the ball around to several different receivers inside, outside, short and deep.  So far, Cutler has targeted 4 receivers at least 26 times this season.  And all 4 have been hit for multiple plays over 20 yards.  The Saints defense has been surprisingly good this season, but they have played offenses that make the Caleb Hanie led Bears look competent.  The key to success will be taking advantage of a lackluster run defense and then beating them at their own game with the pass.  Trestman has to mix up the playcalling with short quick passes and picking the right time to take his shots.  

With the way Trestman preaches not making the same mistakes twice, I’d expect a much cleaner offense this week.  The Saints pass D has been great so far, but on paper, their DBs are mostly the same group that allowed almost 5,000 yards in the air last season.  The Bears will have a huge size advantage on their corners.  And there will be plays available in the run game.  It’s almost a given that Brees will throw for 300 yards, but the run D has to make them one-dimensional, unlike last week.  If the Bears take advantage of their natural advantages, (home field, short week w/ travel for Saints, Saints outdoors on what will be a wet, muddy field) they should win this game.  But it’s definitely not going to be easy to knock New Orleans from the ranks of the unbeaten.