Week 7: CHICAGO BEARS at Washington Redskins

After a Thursday Night win, the 4-2 Bears go to the nation’s capital to face the struggling Redskins.  After playing 3 games in a span of 11 days, the Bears will kickoff this week 10 days after last taking the field.  It’s also the Bears last game before their bye week.  

Somehow, despite very public disasters in tackling Reggie Bush and Brandon Jacobs, the Bears are still the 12^th ranked defense against the run and tied for 7^th allowing 3.8 ypc.  Those rankings and the tackling will once again be put to the test this week.  The bye week appears to have done RGIII some good as he looked a lot better moving around in the pocket, and more than doubled his season total with 77 rushing yards on Sunday.  Alfred Morris has been effective running the ball at a clip of 5.2 ypc, but has been used much less than he was last year due to the Skins getting down early in every game.  The combination of the Bears tackling last week, healthy legs on RGIII, and a rookie MLB making his first start, I expect the Skins to lean heavier on the run game than they have all year to this point.  Tackling and contain will be the keys.  Not just keeping RGIII in the pocket, but also keeping Morris from getting outside the tackle box on the zone or stretch plays.

Speaking of contain, the only good thing about not having a pass rush is that there should be no excuse to allow the QB to get outside of the pocket.  In fact, the goal should be to keep RGIII inside the pocket, not only because of his ability to run, but he has struggled throwing the ball from the pocket so far this season.  Griffin hasn’t really turned the ball over a ton, but the Skins have the fewest plays over 20 yards in the entire league.  In fact, RGIII has completed just 36% of the passes he’s thrown over 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.  None of the Skins WRs are particularly good at beating man coverage, and it looks like the timing is off just a little.  Tillman and Jennings should be able to handle Garcon and Hankerson.  I do worry about TE, Jordan Reed though, he creates matchup problems against Anderson or either of his Gator teammates Jon Bostic and Major Wright.       
  
Offensively, the Bears pose a pretty big threat to a shaky Skins defense.  Washington ranks in the bottom 10 in the league vs. the run and the pass.  However, they do have the ability to make the Bears sweat.  They have a pretty good duo of edge pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, who have combined for 8 sacks (the Bears team total).  The Skins also aren’t afraid to send some extra guys, which really frees up Dangelo Hall to jump routes, which Jay Cutler knows all-too-well he likes to do.  However, that should leave the checkdowns to Forte wide open.  RBs like Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings, and James Starks have had big receiving days vs. Washington.  Forte could have a field day.  Even if he doesn’t I don’t think the Skins have what it takes to hold down both Marshall and Jeffery on the outside.  Still waiting for the Bears to call a double move on Hall from the 4 INT game of a few years ago.  Do that this week and the Bears will get a long TD.

One interesting matchup in this game will be on special teams.  Both teams have struggled stopping the return game.  The Bears have uncharacteristically struggled, while the Skins have probably been the league’s worse special teams, allowing a whopping 19.1 yards per return.  The Redskins really struggled Sunday Night in the return game allowing 1 score and 1 really short field.  Though Devin Hester is more reputation than substance at this point, Washington will definitely put in extra time on the 3^rd phase of the game.  That being said, the Skins suffered major injuries on punt coverage last week and are breaking in 3 new players including a long snapper.  This would be a good week for Hester to break a long punt return.  Also, extra focus on coverage teams means more focus on staying in lanes and playing assignments.  Dave Toub’s special teams were pretty creative, and I’d like to see the Bears test the Skins with a reverse of some kind on a return to really test their discipline.

This is a big game for the Bears.  If there is a such thing as a “trap” game in the NFL, this is the one I worry about being one.  The Bears have historically struggled in D.C.  They are coming off a long week.  They are headed for a bye week and a subsequent week of focusing on the Green Bay Packers.  While I’m sure nobody is looking ahead to a game almost 3 weeks ago, I could see the Bears looking forward to the bye.  There are several players nursing injuries on defense, and the bye allows time for those players to heal and possibly for GM, Phil Emery to get some help for the defensive line or LB corps.  The Bears have had decent starts on the road in Pittsburgh and Detroit, but have kinda gone into the tank in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters before turning it back on in the 4^th.  Those fast starts should bode well as the Redskins have allowed 50 first quarter points.  But if the Bears start slow and allow the Skins to keep their running game in play, they could go into the bye with a loss.  5-2 is a huge difference from 4-3, especially for a team that started 3-0.  It’s a tough road game, but a legit playoff team shouldn’t lose this game.