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Saturday, May 3, 2014

2014 O and D Prospect Rankings by Position

2014 Offensive Prospect Rankings by Position

QBs

1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
2. Blake Bortles, UCF
3. Derek Carr, Fresno State
4. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
5. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
6. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
7. Aaron Murray, Georgia
8. AJ McCarron, Alabama
9. David Fales, San Jose State
10. Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
11. Tajh Boyd, Clemson
12. Brett Smith, Wyoming
13. Jeff Matthews, Cornell
14. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
15. Connor Shaw, South Carolina


I don't understand the various "experts" who say they wouldn't take Bridgewater in the 1st round.  All we heard in March was "pro days aren't that important".  Yet somehow all of a sudden, nobody likes the #2 rated HS recruited QB from 4 years ago who completed 70% of his passes for 7600+ yards and 58 TDs with only 12 INTs in his last 2 years in a pro style offense.  It makes no sense.  If he falls to the 20s, Bridgewater is going to make several teams feel Aaron Rodgers like regret.  Conversely, I'm also not buying the Tom Savage love this late in the process.  I like him as a talent, but what has he done in the last 2 weeks to go from 5th round afterthought to earn the rumors of being taken late 1st?  He's not a day 1 starter, and just turned 24.  Not a ton of time to develop him.  Mettenberger and Murray were probably 2-3 for me late in the season before each tore an ACL.  Mettenberger, IMO, is a better version of Mike Glennon, who had an OK rookie year.  Murray has an underrated arm despite his lack of height, and a ton of big time experience.  Nobody has played as well vs. as much quality competition as he did at Georgia.  He's in the mold of other SEC QBs who turned out bad in the NFL (Wuerffel comes to mind), but he has more between the shoulders.  Fales is my sleeper, who could have a much better career than people think.  Reminds me some of Josh McCown formerly of the Bears.  And if he gets in a West Coast Offense, I think he can be a really good #2 QB if not more.

RBs

1. Lache Seastrunk, Baylor
2. Jeremy Hill, LSU
3. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
4. Tre Mason, Auburn
5. Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona
6. Charles Sims, West Virginia
7. Terrence West, Towson
8. Bishop Sankey, Washington
9. Storm Johnson, UCF
10. Kapri Bibbs, Colorado State
11. Devonta Freeman, Florida State
12. Andre Williams, Boston College
13. Jerick McKinnon, Georgia Southern
14. James White, Wisconsin
15. Isaiah Crowell, Alabama State 

This is an interesting group.  Nobody even as good as Eddie Lacy or LeVeon Bell from last year's draft, but 11-12 of these guys could go 2nd day and not be reaches.  Overall, I like potential in a RB.  The name that probably sticks out as a surprise is Kapri Bibbs.  Bibbs is a really interesting guy that played only 1 season of major college football.  He ran a slow 40, but maybe has the best vision of any RB in this class and will be one of the youngest players drafted.  Hate to put this on the young man, but I can't help but to think "Terrell Davis" when he has the ball in his hands.  West is one of the players I had never heard of until I randomly watched an FCS playoff game.  And I was floored.  Absolute beast of a runner, with translatable skills.  Carey has a lot of haters after his slow 40, but he has the stats to back up a high ranking.  Great pure rusher.  As for my #1, Seastrunk is a dancer.  Maybe too juke happy, but he's a big play waiting to happen every time he touches it.  I think if he'll learn to hit the hole faster in a non-spread NFL offense, and will be the best RB in this class when all is said and done.

WRs

1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson
2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M
3. Marqise Lee, USC
4. Odell Beckham Jr, LSU
5. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State
6. Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt
7. Brandin Cooks, Oregon State
8. Davante Adams, Fresno State
9. Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss
10. Cody Latimer, Indiana
11. Martavis Bryant, Clemson
12. Jarvis Landry, LSU
13. Allen Robinson, Penn State
14. Brandon Coleman, Rutgers
15. Jared Abbredaris, Wisconsin

If the RB class is loaded with no stars, WR is loaded with stars.  Watkins can have a Julio Jones like impact.  My mantra all season was, "what does Evans do better than Benjamin" to anyone who had Evans ranked higher.  Well, the answer is run better.  Much better.  Wouldn't pick him top 10, but he's a clear #2 here.  Matthews is the forgotten man, which is crazy considering he broke most of the SEC receiving records, ran a sub 4.5 at 6'3", and is the cousin of the best WR to ever play football.  Not resting on his relationship with Jerry Rice, Matthews was the guy still working after practice at the Senior Bowl, still working post pro day, still working after his drill was over in the combine.  Most NFL ready on this list.  As an IU alum, I saw about 90% of every Latimer game.  I have a hard time grading fellow Hoosiers as they don't typically put NFL worthy talent out.  But Latimer is a good all around WR who was much faster than I expected.  Still, I'd temper expectations and not be comfortable taking him late 1 as rumored.  Players 11-13 I think are all overrated.  Martavis, I believe, is ghetto for "Charles Rogers".  Won't get drafted as high, but seriously similar measurements and lack of ability to catch a football well.  Landry is every "expert's" favorite because he's tough and a good route runner, which is code for "slow".  He may be a solid pro, but I don't think he's living up to the Boldin comparisons.  Robinson was force fed the ball in the PSU offense, but isn't as naturally talented as the 5-10 group that he typically gets lumped with.

TEs

1. Eric Ebron, North Carolina
2. Jace Amaro, Texas A&M
3. Troy Niklas, Notre Dame
4. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington
5. CJ Fiedorowicz, Iowa
6. Arthur Lynch, Georgia
7. Crockett Gilmore, Colorado State
8. Xavier Grimble, USC
9. Colt Lyerla, Oregon
10. Richard Rodgers, California.

Not much to say about this group.  Ebron is the only star.  Amaro is a solid receiver, but he's more of a slot guy than anything.  Fiedorowicz and Lynch can do it all, and I like both a lot.  If I'm a team that needs a TE, I'd rather take one of these 2 instead of 2-4.  Lyerla would be an easy #2 if he didn't like drugs so much.  But if he's there in the 6th, he's a potential steal as a move TE, H-back, FB, and even short yardage RB which he did well at Oregon.  

OTs

1. Jake Matthews, Texas A&M
2. Greg Robinson, Auburn
3. Taylor Lewan, Michigan
4. Zach Martin, Notre Dame
5. Cyrus Kouandijo, Alabama
6. JaWaun James, Tennessee
7. Morgan Moses, Virginia
8. Antonio "Tiny" Richardson, Tennessee
9. Joel Bitonio, Nevada
10. Brandon Thomas, Clemson
11. Billy Turner, North Dakota State
12. Cameron Fleming, Stanford
13. Michael Schofield, Michigan
14. James Hurst, North Carolina
15. Matt Patchan, Boston College

I frankly haven't looked a lot at the OTs because the Bears frankly don't really need one.  But Robinson is another guy I had never heard of until I turned on an Auburn game and saw him walking DEs 15 yards down the field, and was wowed.  After watching him constantly late in the season, I fell in love like the most of the NFL.  So why is he not #1?  Well, he was for a long time.  Then I used my common sense and said to myself, "what's in a name?"  Well in the Matthews name is a HOF OT daddy, a pro bowl uncle, and a pro bowl cousin.  If I had to bet money on who would be the player in this draft most likely to be good, it would be Jake Matthews.  

Interior OL (OG/OC)

1. Xavier Sua-Filo, UCLA
2. David Yankey, Stanford
3. Marcus Martin, USC
4. Dekota Dozier, Furman
5. Travis Swanson, Arkansas
6. Cyril Richardson, Baylor
7. Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State
8. Weston Richburg, Colorado State
9. Trai Turner, LSU
10. Anthony Steen, Alabama

Quietly, a really strong group in this draft.  I like all these top 10 guys, but I would like them a lot more if we fast forward to their 2nd NFL seasons.  Not a lot of day 1 starters here.  I thought I was the only person who knew about Martin when he announced he was leaving USC early.  Nobody talked about him.  But now he's gaining much deserved momentum and could go late 1 to the Saints.  Swanson is my #2 C, and I actually like him more than Dallas' 2013 1st round pick, Travis Frederick.  Dozier is a small school ass kicker, who looks like a poor man's Iupati.  Big, tough, strong, great feet.  Loved him at the Senior Bowl.  Turner has big time potential in the mid rounds, but is still very raw.  A few guys I really like on the 3rd day that would be next in my rankings are Miami's Brandon Linder, Tennessee's Zach Fulton, and Nebraska's Spencer Long, who was a top 100 talent before tearing his ACL this year.  



2014 Defensive Prospect Rankings by Position

Edge Rushers

1. Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
2. Khalil Mack, Buffalo
3. Kony Ealy, Missouri
4. Anthony Barr, UCLA
5. Marcus Smith, Louisville
6. Dee Ford, Auburn
7. Scott Crichton, Oregon State
8. Kareem Martin, North Carolina
9. Jeremiah Attaochu, Georgia Tech
10. Trent Murphy, Stanford
11. Demarcus Lawrence, Boise St
12. Chris Smith, Arkansas
13. Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas
14. James Gayle, Virginia Tech
15. Cassius Marsh, UCLA

I feel like anyone who doesn't have Clowney #1 overall, is kidding themselves.  He is an LT/Bruce Smith level prospect.  Not saying he's going to be that good, but he was good last year at USC and wasn't even trying hard consistently.  Marcus Smith is one of my favorite players in this draft.  Second in the nation in sacks, top 5 40 time at the combine, 34" arms, great hand fighter.  Looks like 10+ sack upside.  The NCAA sack leader, Murphy is down at 10, because frankly, he's not that good of an athlete and isn't big enough to hold up at LDE as he profile suggests he should be.  The end of the list features a pair of 2nd generation players.  Jeffcoat, I tried to like, but he is skinny and is a negative in the run game.  He can rush the passer though.  Gayle is son of Bears great safety, Shaun.  Very underrated.  Dominant game vs. Bama to start the season.  Also skinny, but I think he's stronger than Jeffcoat vs. the run.  I'm also big on Ealy.  Not sure why people are trying to make him a DT.  To me, he's a notch below Ziggy Ansah from last year, but with more actual production and less natural ability.  But I still see a 10+ sack edge rushing.

Interior DL

1. Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh
2. Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota
3. Louis Nix, Notre Dame
4. Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame
5. Dominique Easley, Florida
6. Timmy Jernigan, Florida State
7. DaQuan Jones, Penn State
8. Caraun Reid, Princeton
9. Anthony Johnson, LSU
10. Will Sutton, Arizona State
11. Ego Ferguson, LSU
12. Kelcy Quarles, South Carolina
13. Taylor Hart, Oregon
14. George Uko, USC
15. DeAndre Coleman, California

I have Jernigan lower than most.  I see a solid player.  Run defender that can give you 3-5 sacks every year.  But that's it.  I don't see special.  All the guys above him could be very special players.  A lot of this group (Hageman, Nix, Tuitt, Easley, Sutton) had much better season last year than their final seasons.  And a couple more (Johnson, Coleman) were poised to break out this year after promising 2012's, but never did.  The switch could turn on for any of these guys, with Hageman having Richard Seymour potential and Nix could be Wilfork-lite.  Reid is another guy that wowed me the first time I saw him play.  Consistently beat multiple Ivy League blockers.  Sleeper pick that the Bears have been rumored to be interested in.  This list includes 3-4 DEs and 4-3 DTs, anyone who plays between the tackles.

LBs

1. Khalil Mack, Buffalo
2. Ryan Shazier, Ohio State
3. Kyle Van Noy, BYU
4. CJ Mosely, Alabama
5. Telvin Smith, Florida State
6. Christian Jones, Florida State
7. Shayne Skov, Stanford
8. Chris Borland, Wisconsin
9. Jordan Tripp, Montana
10. Jordan Zumwalt, UCLA
11. Christian Kirksey, Iowa
12. Khairi Fortt, California
13. Yawin Smallwood, UConn
14. Lamin Barrow, LSU
15. Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky

I typically don't like to put players at 2 different positions, because there is usually 1 position where I think a player fits much better.  But Mack is talented enough to be a top pass rusher and stand up and be a pro bowl OLB in a 4-3.  Van Noy reminds me some of Bobby Wagner of Seattle.  I think you stand him up in a 4-3 and get a guy that makes plays all over the field and with great blitz potential.  Jordan Tripp is another of my favorites.  Looks like a great coverage LB who has the potential to be this year's Kiko Alonzo, a rookie that nobody other than this Steelers blog cohort was talking about but has an outstanding season.  Jones is at 6 because of his potential.  Physical clone of Alec Ogletree from last year, but not as polished.  Fortt is a guy that showed great potential at Penn St before rotting in the worst college football program in a BCS conference, CAL.  If an NFL team can get him back to that talent he showed early in his career, he's a steal.

CB

1. Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State
2. Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech
3. Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State
4. Jason Verrett, TCU
5. Bradley Roby, Ohio State
6. Pierre Desir, Lindenwood
7. Bashaud Breeland, Clemson
8. Jaylen Watkins, Florida
9. Philip Gaines, Rice
10. Stanley Jean Baptiste, Nebraska
11. Marcus Roberson, Florida
12. Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State
13. Loucheiz Purifoy, Florida
14. Walt Aikens, Liberty
15. Keith McGill, Utah

The top 5 guys are no brainers in some order.  I have Fuller over Dennard simply because of versatility and he's less likely to get penalized for overly physical play.  Verrett is technically the most sound CB in this class.  Great feet and change of direction, good ball skills.  But he is short.  He does have some Brent Grimes to his game though, I think he can be an outside CB in the NFL, but don't like him across from a guy like Tim Jennings on the Bears.  6-9 are very fun players.  They could be excellent players, but all are raw...other than Watkins.  6-8 could all be safeties, so add versatility.  Gaines is lightning fast and changes direction very well.  I thought Desir and Aikens moved better than Baptiste and McGill at the Senior Bowl.  The former 2 have better hips and I think the latter 2 will have to eventually move to FS at the NFL level.  Still holding out hope for Purifoy for some reason.  Great natural talent, but didn't do it enough on the field and now has some off field issues.

S

1. Calvin Pryor, Louisville
2. Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, Alabama
3. Deone Bucannon, Washington State
4. Jimmy Ward, Northern Illinois
5. Terrence Brooks, Florida State
6. Dion Bailey, USC
7. Kenny Ladler, Vanderbilt
8. Ed Reynolds, Stanford
9. Dezmon Southward, Wisconsin
10. Craig Loston, LSU
11. Marqueston Huff, Wyoming
12. Dontae Johnson, North Carolina State
13. Antone Exum, Virginia Tech
14. Ahmad Dixon, Baylor
15. Tre Boston, North Carolina

Again, the top 5 here are set in stone on most boards.  Order is personal preference.  Basically, Pryor is my #1 safety because while he can't cover like HCD, he has the versatility to play in the box and in the deep middle.  Big time hitter, underrated zone skills.  Dix has some in man and lots of experience in the deep middle.  But I'm not a fan of Dix in the box (hehehe!) consistently at the NFL level.  Bucannon looks pretty stiff on tape, and missed some ugly tackles, but he led the PAC-12 in tackles and had 6 INTs.  Always around the ball, fast, big time hitter.  Reminds me of Donte Whitner.  Ladler is part of my Vandy bias.  Not sure why I love the Commodores so much, but regardless, Ladler is a solid player who's smart and a leader.  Not flashy but won't kill you at the back end of coverage.  Loston has a similar game to Bucannon, but not as good at it.  Huff, Johnson, and Southward are potential sleepers as they have shown the ability to play FS and play man coverage against WRs.  Scheme fit is big for a lot of these players.




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