There are a few things to make clear before I get into the mock itself. This year, like 2010, I have focused on not just the 30 invitees but also our pro day visits (who attended if possible) and combine meetings (very little of that info this year). You all know why I mention 2010 as I was 7/10 correct that year; and with moving this far from Pittsburgh (and this close to dog shit. Nod to Cleveland) I felt I needed to regain my focus. Ok, that and memory/brain shrinkage/memory loss MS BS. Moving on...
The key points of interest this years are groupings. In CB, WR and OLB this year Ive found a trend within what I believe to be close to the Steelers Big Board. The CBs that have either visited (8 total) or have met with us at the combine or their pro day seem to show a grouping of mid to later (not late) first rounders. The blue shade are those we saw at a pro day or the combine while yellow visited in house. Also note- these groupings could indeed be more proof that we do intend to attempt to trade down. See below.
| RATING | |
| CB | |
| 13 | GILBERT |
| 16 | DENNARD |
| 25 | FULLER |
| 26 | VERRETT |
| 33 | ROBY |
While we did meet with Gilbert at the Combine it went no further than that as I dont even think hes of any interest. All speed and flash, no real ability and cant tackle. Or wont tackle. Either way, please dont say just like Sanders. Ugh. Anyhow, we pick at 15 and this shows that our interest for that pick is clearly DD, Fuller or Verrett. While Jason looks to be more of a Nickel Back, as a Frogs fan I beg to differ.
Another grouping was the WRs.
| RATING | |
| WR | |
| 4 | WATKINS |
| 9 | EVANS |
| 15 | BECKHAM JR |
| 27 | LEE |
| 36 | ROBINSON |
| 40 | MONCRIEF |
| 43 | MATTHEWS |
| 45 | LATIMER |
| 53 | BRYANT |
| 58 | BENJAMIN |
| 76 | ELLINGTON |
While most believe TB will draft Evans at 7 there is a chance Beckham Jr could be there at 15. Now that choice would honor a few things in Tomlins draft history. Picking O and D every other year (this year should be O) and drafting a junior with the 1st round pick. Beckham is a strong mirror to AB but hes leaps ahead of where AB was as a rookie and maybe has an even higher ceiling. However, after that the focus looks to be late 1 thru mid/late 2nd round. To try and make the mock even more realistic I took a look at which teams have met with and have shown interest in Robinson, Moncrief, Latimer (new man crush of mine), and Bryant. I wanted to see of those WRs which would be available at 46. I also took note of the same teams ahead of us at 46 that have interest in a WR also were into Lee and Adams. Bryant, Moncrief, and Latimer had the most interest to other teams picking before 46 while Benjamin and Robinson did not. I ran this by my counterpart and he suggested that while the above may be true he feels that Lee, Moncrief, Benjamin and Latimer will be off the board sooner (late 1, early 2), leaving Bryant and Robinson. Hence my pick at 46.
Lastly was the grouping I found at OLBs.
| RATING | |
| OLB | |
| 11 | BARR |
| 22 | SHAZIER |
| 29 | FORD |
| 38 | LAWRENCE |
| 46 | CRICHTON |
| 70 | BRADFORD |
| 79 | C.SMITH |
| 89 | JEFFCOAT |
While Shazier's speed is very intriguing he really fits best as an ILB in a 34 defense. Do we need to use a pick on ILB so high so soon? Is Spence gonna be able to play? And if he can, where is he on the depth chart? I loved Vince before last years draft, and think he will only get better. 2 stud Seminoles inside our defense is chaos ready to rock. But look at the others. Early 2 thru late 3. Now, history shows that for the past 2 years weve drafted exactly on the grade of the player (by chance?). IE, at pick 79 we drafted Wheaton, who at the time was graded 79th overall. However, in 2011 we grabbed a player that was falling (and shoulda let him fall) in Curtis Brown. My point is, with over 100 juniors in this draft there wont be players falling as much as players merely being pushed back. Id be thrilled with Bradford at 97 however I really dont think he'll be one of the ones available. Im also a huge Chris Smith fan (Exactly like Jason Worilds) and while we attended his pro day I dont have any other info that proves interest. Jackson Jeffcoat however is a bloodline that was brought in that may struggle some vs the run. Coach Porter will either teach him or beat him with a stick to tackle properly.
These groupings Ive found within our Big Board show me how the 1st 3 rounds will possibly or probably unfold for the Black and Gold. Using this hand in hand with the history of our last 4 drafts I have built a very realistic mock draft that is shown below. Enjoy.
BTW, I hate Roger Goodell.
With the 15th pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select...
15 Darqueze Dennard, CB Michigan State- at first with all the games Ive seen (big fan of the Spartans since Bells arrival) and the game tape showed me his using heavy press coverage, so I didnt think hed fit. Then I read LeBeau's quote "If ya gotta paint the barn, and ya got red paint, the barns gonna be red". He further went on to say that you dont change a players talents. You find a way to merge them into the scheme. I also looked closer at the MSU defensive scheme and did in fact see DD back off his press last second as to totally fool the QB. QB sees press, DD is great at holding up the WR (legally in the NFL, I hope), and bails on that option. I must say that many many months ago I had this pick as Kyle Fuller, and would be geeked if it were him. Kyle does meet MTs bloodlines interest and has the height and speed we do love at CB. The Turkeys also use a defense similar to those in the NFL. But for now, its DD. After all, Tomlin did take him to dinner with Colbert. He was a team captain.
46 Allen Robinson, WR PSU- Like I told DeShawn, if this happens MT will be the poster boy for the B1G. He didnt have the best Combine, but his pro day was much better, speed wise. As a junior we'll need to work on his focus but Im sure Coach Mann can bring him around. The 1 thing he does do very very well is YAC. He just doesnt wanna be tackled. Not that hes afraid of it, he just wants to get his ass in the endzone. That should make Haley very very happy. We also met with him at the Combine. And while I do know PSU DT DaQuan Jones came to visit I cant find if Allen tagged along.
97 Jackson Jeffcoat, OLB Texas- Like I said above, JJ (wed have 2 JJs if Jason doesnt sign long term) has the bloodlines Tomlin loves, and certainly has the speed and power to get to the QB. However, there are reports that some teams ran AT him as they knew they could easily gain the yards needed on the ground. That wont fly for Porter, or any other Steelers coach really. Like I said, Id prefer Bradford or Smith, but in keeping with our draft history, JJ stays. For now. He was also a team captain.
118 Taylor Hart, DE Oregon- the best 5 tech weve drafted recently has been Cam. We botched the Hood experiment and ran the tread off of Smith and Da Beard. So what is it about Cam that has allowed him to fit in? 2-3 year on the bench? God I hope not. OSU let Cam play the DE as well as the 3 tech inside at times. So, I took it down to the nitty gritty and looked at this college stats. I then compared that with other potential DEs in the draft with similar usage. Take a look for yourself.
Both used in the same capacity while also along the same size. This was a no brainer. I was thrilled to find an article that said he'd met with Tomlin at the Combine. Now we just need to hope the Eagles dont pounce on him sooner than 118. He was also a team captain.
***Now for the 5th round. A side note- over the past 4 years we've almost always used this round as a catch all. Those who were falling, wed draft. That plan sucked. So much so that looking at the players draft grades vs when we picked them has actually gotten closer. So lately were not catching the guys in free fall. Both of these 5th round picks fall, though pick 157 is graded 137 (+20) and pick 173 is graded 168 (+5). Again, not reaching backwards and grabbing the shit rolling down the hill.
EX.
| 2013 +/- | (+27) |
| 2012 +/- | (+34) |
| 2011 +/- | (+85) |
| 2010 +/- | -73 |
157 Jerick McKinnon, Georgia Southern- The way of the NFL is now that RBs will most likely not be taken in the 1st round for quite some time unless there's another Barry. Oh yeah, he has a son. Anyhow, that neglect pushes RBs back at least 1 round from the start. Of the RBs we've shown interest in they are primarily smaller speed backs. And while there is a chance we pick Seastrunk (a fav of MTs) at 97 I dont think the need for a 3rd RB is more than that of a backup, if not soon to be starter at OLB. This kid lit up the combine. 4.37 40 and a 32 bench. Need more? 11ft broad and 40in vertical. The catch is he was used primarily as an option QB in college. He did also return kicks, cover as a corner, play RB, do the dishes and get pizza but damn. My bet is, we grab a vet scat back late in the summer just in case Jerick cant make the total transition to RB. He was also a team captain.
173 Wesley Johnson, OL Vanderbilt- we now have 2 candidates for RT with Adams and his stabbing to consider along with Gilbert. LT has a smaller man with brains and brawn holding down Bens blind side. Depth? None. What we need is a bigger version of Beachum. Enter Wes. Hes played at RT, LT, LG and RT and some in the NFL think hes best at OC. He played in the SEC so I really dont care were we plug him immediately, I want Munchak to get ahold of him and see that he can be a franchise LT. It doesnt hurt that Vandy primarily uses the ZBS. He was also a team captain.
192 Kevin Pierre-Louis, LB Boston College- remember when I said Shazier was impressive due to his speed but his size made him more of a ILB fit? And 15th pick was way too early? While he isnt Shazier, with his size though, he sure as hell hits like him. Can defend the run as well as the pass. Heres our fail safe in the Spence experiment. We signed Moats for 1 year to flex outside LB as well as inside. Just 1 year. Our depth at OLB is only Carter, ugh, and ILB is almost as limited. He was also a team captain.
215 Shaq Richardson, DB Arizona- hes the typical 2nd CB that we take in the draft with a catch. This pick is usually a flex DB that can and has played CB as well as safety. At 6'1 200 and running a 4.43, this kid has the size, speed, hips and hands to do that. However, like our friend JJ at pick 97, his tackling needs to be improved upon. Especially vs the run. Now thats a prerequisite of a LeBeau defense, but to meet with him at the combine as well as inviting him in there is no one Id trust more than Coach Lake to see if this can be corrected. The upside? He makes plays. And a lot of picks. Often. This defines a team player, does it not? He was also a team captain.
230 Beau Allen, NT Wisconsin- And heres where its a coin flip. This could be Allen or maybe even Ryan Carrethers NT Arkansas State. We met with Ryan at the Combine, and invited Beau in for a work out. While theyre essentially the same size (height, arm length, hands) they are different in some respects. In 2013 the Badgers switched to a 30 front defense moving Beau from a 3 tech to a 0 tech (like he was in HS). Needless to say it didnt take him long to feel at home. Benching 30 225 at his pro day certainly turned heads, but keeping his wits about him moving from a 40 to a 30 front in his senior year shows attitude and smarts. On the other hand Ryan has been a 0 tech from day one. Benching 225 35 times though looking less than quick at the Combine also turned some heads, or at least Tomlins. MT has a crush on his former coaching ground having drafted from there before. The FA signing of Thomas was, to me, our next 0 tech of the future, only to be fooled that hes actually a vet replacement of Woods as an inside DT outside DE backup. Steve is shit at the nose. Hes never been one and should never be one in the future. Though a 3 year deal should get him in play at a DE. In my opinion. And most others agree. But this has always been Tomlins trend in the past. Go NT late. Now we have the choice of one of these huge powerful kids to be our next Casey? I went with Beau as his grade meets the history of our drafts. Though going Carrethers at 215 is certainly an option as thats were we picked DJ years ago.
As an aside I do also have a list of strong possible UDFAs.
| REYNOLDS, DT/OT/MICHIGAN ST |
| METHENY, QB/SOUTH ALABAMA |
| RAMSEY, DL/BOSTON COLLEGE |
| BRYANT, OL/YOUNGSTOWN ST |
| MOORE, DE/CONCORDIA |
| SMITH, OLB/TENNESSEE |
| N.WILLIAMS, S/NORTH ALABAMA |
| MARTIN, OL/SOUTH FLORIDA |
| STANLEY, LB/WEST TEXAS AM |
No comments:
Post a Comment