Week 7: CHICAGO BEARS at Washington Redskins

After a Thursday Night win, the 4-2 Bears go to the nation’s capital to face the struggling Redskins.  After playing 3 games in a span of 11 days, the Bears will kickoff this week 10 days after last taking the field.  It’s also the Bears last game before their bye week.  

Somehow, despite very public disasters in tackling Reggie Bush and Brandon Jacobs, the Bears are still the 12^th ranked defense against the run and tied for 7^th allowing 3.8 ypc.  Those rankings and the tackling will once again be put to the test this week.  The bye week appears to have done RGIII some good as he looked a lot better moving around in the pocket, and more than doubled his season total with 77 rushing yards on Sunday.  Alfred Morris has been effective running the ball at a clip of 5.2 ypc, but has been used much less than he was last year due to the Skins getting down early in every game.  The combination of the Bears tackling last week, healthy legs on RGIII, and a rookie MLB making his first start, I expect the Skins to lean heavier on the run game than they have all year to this point.  Tackling and contain will be the keys.  Not just keeping RGIII in the pocket, but also keeping Morris from getting outside the tackle box on the zone or stretch plays.

Speaking of contain, the only good thing about not having a pass rush is that there should be no excuse to allow the QB to get outside of the pocket.  In fact, the goal should be to keep RGIII inside the pocket, not only because of his ability to run, but he has struggled throwing the ball from the pocket so far this season.  Griffin hasn’t really turned the ball over a ton, but the Skins have the fewest plays over 20 yards in the entire league.  In fact, RGIII has completed just 36% of the passes he’s thrown over 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.  None of the Skins WRs are particularly good at beating man coverage, and it looks like the timing is off just a little.  Tillman and Jennings should be able to handle Garcon and Hankerson.  I do worry about TE, Jordan Reed though, he creates matchup problems against Anderson or either of his Gator teammates Jon Bostic and Major Wright.       
  
Offensively, the Bears pose a pretty big threat to a shaky Skins defense.  Washington ranks in the bottom 10 in the league vs. the run and the pass.  However, they do have the ability to make the Bears sweat.  They have a pretty good duo of edge pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, who have combined for 8 sacks (the Bears team total).  The Skins also aren’t afraid to send some extra guys, which really frees up Dangelo Hall to jump routes, which Jay Cutler knows all-too-well he likes to do.  However, that should leave the checkdowns to Forte wide open.  RBs like Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings, and James Starks have had big receiving days vs. Washington.  Forte could have a field day.  Even if he doesn’t I don’t think the Skins have what it takes to hold down both Marshall and Jeffery on the outside.  Still waiting for the Bears to call a double move on Hall from the 4 INT game of a few years ago.  Do that this week and the Bears will get a long TD.

One interesting matchup in this game will be on special teams.  Both teams have struggled stopping the return game.  The Bears have uncharacteristically struggled, while the Skins have probably been the league’s worse special teams, allowing a whopping 19.1 yards per return.  The Redskins really struggled Sunday Night in the return game allowing 1 score and 1 really short field.  Though Devin Hester is more reputation than substance at this point, Washington will definitely put in extra time on the 3^rd phase of the game.  That being said, the Skins suffered major injuries on punt coverage last week and are breaking in 3 new players including a long snapper.  This would be a good week for Hester to break a long punt return.  Also, extra focus on coverage teams means more focus on staying in lanes and playing assignments.  Dave Toub’s special teams were pretty creative, and I’d like to see the Bears test the Skins with a reverse of some kind on a return to really test their discipline.

This is a big game for the Bears.  If there is a such thing as a “trap” game in the NFL, this is the one I worry about being one.  The Bears have historically struggled in D.C.  They are coming off a long week.  They are headed for a bye week and a subsequent week of focusing on the Green Bay Packers.  While I’m sure nobody is looking ahead to a game almost 3 weeks ago, I could see the Bears looking forward to the bye.  There are several players nursing injuries on defense, and the bye allows time for those players to heal and possibly for GM, Phil Emery to get some help for the defensive line or LB corps.  The Bears have had decent starts on the road in Pittsburgh and Detroit, but have kinda gone into the tank in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters before turning it back on in the 4^th.  Those fast starts should bode well as the Redskins have allowed 50 first quarter points.  But if the Bears start slow and allow the Skins to keep their running game in play, they could go into the bye with a loss.  5-2 is a huge difference from 4-3, especially for a team that started 3-0.  It’s a tough road game, but a legit playoff team shouldn’t lose this game.

Week 6: CHICAGO BEARS V. NY Giants

The Bears get right back at it after a tough loss, with a Thursday night game against the 0-5 Giants.  Not much to say about Sunday’s loss to the Saints, but the Bears got beat by a team they aren’t quite ready to compete with yet.  The offense wasn’t bad.  Forte got 4.6 ypc.  Cutler had a 128+ QB rating.  And Alshon Jeffery broke the Bears all-time record for receiving yards in a game.  Even the defense wasn’t terrible.  Completely stopped the run.  Completely shutout the Saints’ WRs.  And held Brees to mostly checkdowns to RBs and TEs (which did eat them alive).   But the ultimate takeaway from Week 5, is that without takeaways on D and some fine-tuning on offense, the Bears are not ready to “hang with the big boys”.  That’s not to say they aren’t good or a playoff caliber team, but they are clearly not championship material in any league that crowns champions after 5 weeks.

Thursday, the New York Giants come to town, and they are honestly, a mess right now.  They are the league’s worst rushing team with just 57 yards per game on the ground.  They have the fewest rushing attempts in the league, but still have managed to lose the most fumbles.  And speaking of turnovers, Eli Manning is the anti-Peyton this year, with a league-leading 13 INTs, 4 more than any other team has thrown.  If that’s not enough, the once feared front 4 has the fewest sacks in the league and have been a non-factor in disrupting opponents’ passing games so far this year as the Giants rank in the bottom 10 in both rushing and passing yards allowed per game.

That being said, the Giants do pose some threats to the Bears.  Eli still is top 5 in the NFL in passing yards.  While a lot of it has come due to being behind on the scoreboard most of the season, the Giants do boast possibly the best 3-deep WR corps in the league.  Hakeem Nicks, Reuben Randle, and mostly Victor Cruz do pose potential matchup problems for the Bears CBs.  Brandon Myers at TE can also make you pay if you forget about him in the middle of the field.  If matched up on Cruz in the slot, Isaiah Frey is going to have to have a really big game to keep Cruz from salsa dancing after a big play.  I do worry about a desperate Giants team looking at the standings and seeing themselves only 2 games out of 1^st place despite the disaster so far.  This is still mostly the same time that won a Superbowl just 2 season ago, with absolutely nothing to lose at this point in the season.  If Eli can figure out how to not throw the ball to the wrong jersey, the Giants can move the ball and will put up points.  

A struggling Bears defense will be faced with the task of keeping the Giants among the league’s lowest scoring teams.  The Giants will likely be without 2 interior starters on the OL, with Chris Snee already sent to IR, and David Baas having missed Sunday’s game.  Unfortunately, the backup OL will be facing a makeshift defensive line.  DT, Nate Collins joined Henry Melton on the ACL surgery waiting list and Stephen Paea hasn’t been able to practice or play in over a week.  If Paea can’t go, the Bears DT roster will be 2 deep…..1 rookie who just made his NFL debut Sunday, and a guy who will have been on the roster about 15 days at kickoff on Thursday.  Luckily, the Giants have struggled to block edge rushers also and all of Peppers, Wootton, McClellin, and David Bass (not to be confused w/ Giants center) have shown flashes of a good pass rush the last couple weeks, though not really at the same time.  Should see a lot of the aforementioned 4 DEs on the field together, on pass or run downs.

As I said last week, it will need to be more of the same offensively.  The offense is headed in the right direction.  Have gobbled up a lot of yards and points in garbage time the last 2 weeks, but that’s a huge improvement over the complete disasters of the previous 3 seasons.  The Bears now officially have offensive weapons, with 4 players over 25 catches thru 5 games.  The focus this week needs to be on getting better in the red zone.  Despite scoring the 3^rd most points in the NFL so far, the Bears have left several points on the board the last couple weeks.  1^st and goal from the 9 (after a penalty), and 3 straight incompletions lead to 3 points instead of 7.  Would have made the score 23-14, and a FG instead of a 4^th down drop by Earl Bennett on the next drive makes it a different game.  The previous week in Detroit, the Bears ran out of time before the half, but did get a shot to score a TD from the 10 before needing to kick a FG.  Later in the game, the Bears couldn’t punch it in after a 1^st and 10, from the Lions’ 12.  They also failed to move any further on 2 other occasions after having first down just outside of the red zone.  The Giants also have injuries in the defensive backfield, so this would be a good time to work the no-huddle.  The Bears have had success going hurry-up late in games, but have also had much better redzone play designs with late, short TDs and in converting 3-for-3 two-point conversions.  

Even if the Bears aren’t championship material yet, they should still be considered strong contenders for a playoff spot in the NFC.  And if they are a potential playoff team, they frankly have no business losing this game.  The Bears are the clearly superior team so far.  They are playing at home on a short week.  They are facing a team that has serious health and underperformance issues all over the field.  This looks like a win on paper, but as the saying goes, “any given Thurs….er, Sunday”.  Win and feel good about a 4-2 record and 10-6 pace.  Lose and the playoff chances look pretty bleak after a promising 3-0 start. 

Week 5: CHICAGO BEARS v. New Orleans Saints

Well, the first quarter of the season is in the books.  The Bears had their ups, and most recently their downs.  The offense looks better than it has since Erik Kramer.  The defense still turns the opposition over, better than anyone else.  But Cutler has made some bad turnovers, with many of them leading to opponents’ points.  When not taking the ball away, the defense has uncharacteristically allowed too many yards and too many points on way too many big plays.  And special teams has given up a few big plays themselves.  While 3-1 is a great start to the season, the Bears clearly have to play better if they want to be a championship caliber team.

Week 5 brings an undefeated Saints team.  The Saints look to be a similar opponent to Detroit. Top 5 offensive team that features a huge receiving target that presents matchup problems for any defense.  Whereas Calvin Johnson could be somewhat neutralized with the great play of Charles Tillman and bracket coverage by a deep safety, the Saints big target (Jimmy Graham) will be covered by a LB or safety primarily in most sets.  And while James Anderson has been wonderful in coverage so far, he saw Graham twice per year when he was in Carolina, and Graham lit up the Panthers to an average of 8 catches and 103 yards, with a TD in all but 1 of the last 4 games against them.  And as I said last week about Johnson, Graham is probably going to get his numbers….the key is stopping the other big weapon, Darren Sproles.  

While the story of the Week 4 loss was Cutler’s turnovers, an issue just as big was the failure of the defense to stop Reggie Bush.  Strangely, it was on the ground (not the air) where the Bears defense struggled to contain Bush.  Sproles took Bush’s spot in the NO offense, and despite his great quickness, I don’t think he’s the same type of player as Bush.  Sproles doesn’t have Bush’s lateral ability, which the Bears have historically had trouble with.  He’s plenty fast, but is much more of a straight-line runner than Bush.  But Sproles is a much better receiver than Bush and the Saints will consistently use him in the passing game, whether as a checkdown or primary when 1-on-1 with a linebacker.  Sproles will catch his share of passes, but the key is to get him down immediately and not allow him to get into the open field.  

I’d actually like to see the Bears take an unconventional approach against Brees.  Lance Moore remains out, and I that really weakens their 3-wide set.  That leaves just rookie Kenny Stills, and either Robert Meachem or Nick Toon as the wideouts along w/ Marques Colston.  Or they’ll put Graham outside, allowing a CB to cover him.  I trust Tillman to man up on Colston.  Brees would throw it to me if I was open, but I trust Jennings and Frey (who has played really well so far at nickel) to man up on any of the other 2 WRs.  And with the Bears struggling to get any pressure up the middle last week in Detroit with Melton out and Paea missing a lot of the game, I’d like to see the Bears bring some pressure up the middle, as they did with success in Pittsburgh.  Conventional wisdom says you don’t blitz an elite QB, but Brees has had INT issues in the past and his OL isn’t anything special.  Blitzing also leaves the Bears susceptible to Sproles out of the backfield, but that’s where the Bears put all the extra work on tackling drills they did in practice this week to work.  Obviously, this isn’t an every down proposition, but despite the similarities to the Lions, the Bears can’t sit back and let Brees pick them apart in an attempt to prevent the big play.  

Offensively, it’s just gotta be more of the same for the Bears, minus the turnovers.  Get the ball to Forte.  The Bears have had a lot of success running to the right, with big plays each of the last 2 weeks in that direction.  And lost in the Saints 13.8 points per game allowed, is the fact they allow a league high 5.5 yards per carry.  In the air, Cutler has spread the ball around, giving sufficient targets to all of Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Jeffery, Forte, and mixing in just enough Earl Bennett to keep defenses honest.  In fact, this offense has looked a bit like a poor man’s Saints offense.  Probably not a coincidence considering former Saints coach, Aaron Kromer is the offensive coordinator.  

Like Brees, Cutler is at his best when he gets the ball out of his hands quickly.  Also when at his best, Brees is spreading the ball around to several different receivers inside, outside, short and deep.  So far, Cutler has targeted 4 receivers at least 26 times this season.  And all 4 have been hit for multiple plays over 20 yards.  The Saints defense has been surprisingly good this season, but they have played offenses that make the Caleb Hanie led Bears look competent.  The key to success will be taking advantage of a lackluster run defense and then beating them at their own game with the pass.  Trestman has to mix up the playcalling with short quick passes and picking the right time to take his shots.  

With the way Trestman preaches not making the same mistakes twice, I’d expect a much cleaner offense this week.  The Saints pass D has been great so far, but on paper, their DBs are mostly the same group that allowed almost 5,000 yards in the air last season.  The Bears will have a huge size advantage on their corners.  And there will be plays available in the run game.  It’s almost a given that Brees will throw for 300 yards, but the run D has to make them one-dimensional, unlike last week.  If the Bears take advantage of their natural advantages, (home field, short week w/ travel for Saints, Saints outdoors on what will be a wet, muddy field) they should win this game.  But it’s definitely not going to be easy to knock New Orleans from the ranks of the unbeaten.