2013 Chicago Bears Seaon Outlook

It's finally here!  The 2013 NFL season starts this week!  And me being the eternal optimist, I have very high expectations for my Chicago Bears!

Prevailing thought seems to be that nobody knows what to expect from the Bears.  I think the media sees a team that didn't make the playoffs last year, fired its well respected coach, and is going thru a 4th offensive coordinator in the last 5 years.  However, what I see is a 10-win team with a great, opportunistic defense that would have been a playoff team last year with an offensive scheme and playcalling resembling anything close to NFL caliber.

Lovie Smith and most of his defensive staff are gone, but 9 of the 11 defensive starters are back.  And the good thing about having a veteran defense is that the seed has already been planted in them.  The Bears have looked like the same defense that scored 9 TDs last year, leading the NFL in turnovers forced in the preseason.  Maybe losing Lovie's motivation, Urlacher's leadership, and gaining a year of age is going to slow the defense down a little, but there's no reason to believe there will be a significant dropoff.  Even if the 30-somethings (Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings) go from playing at an elite level to just merely "good", the Bears still have pro-bowler, Henry Melton in his prime.  Also, players like Wootton, Paea, McClellin, Wright and Conte look to be on the upswing.  Wootton is 100% healthy.  Paea quietly may have been the best player on the defense in the preseason.  McClellin has shown flashes.  Conte looks to have taken that next step and seems to be quicker to react to the ball, with a pair of INTs and a few pass breakups in the preseason.  Additionally, James Anderson appears to be a much better pass defender than Nick Roach, though admittedly, Anderson isn't a great run defender.  Starting a rookie at MIKE LB is a concern to some, as Bostic has been a little slow on his run keys and getting depth in his zone coverage, but he is surrounded by a strong front 4, a pro-bowl WLB, and a SS that excels at stopping the run.  Bostic will make some mistakes, but for the most part, I feel like the team around him can cover up for him until he gets used to the speed of the game.  One concern may be the depth on defense as 9 of the projected backups are either rookies or 2nd year players.  But that depth also includes DJ Williams and Zach Bowman who have a wealth of starting experience under their belts.

Offensive is what will determine if this team can win the division and go on a deep playoff run, the way I think they can.  And let's face it, this is all about the passing game.  The run game will be fine.  It has been strong in preseason.  It was good enough last year.  But the one thing that has stood out to me the last few years is the fact that, Earl Bennett's screen to the house aside, the Bears get very little YAC....yards after catch.  In the dreaded days of Hester as the #1 WR, the lack of YAC was due to the fact that neither Hester or Knox could beat press coverage enough to get in the open field where they could use their great speed.  Last year, it was simply a lack of route diversity and creativity to get guys open.  There were very few crossing routes, scrapes, designed picks, and clearouts in the playbook.

Brandon Marshall, routinely a top 5-7 WR (top 20 overall) in terms of YAC pre-Chicago, was 30th overall last year.  And frankly, most of those yards seemed to be his pure strength and ability to break tackles.  Overall, the Bears as a team were 31st in yards after the catch.  They have routinely been in the bottom 1/4 of the league in the Cutler era, which has not been his doing.  And in today's NFL, you don't throw for 4,000 yards by just chucking the ball deep.  Your QB gets 4,000 yards by getting the ball out of his hands and allowing his WRs to get him "cheap" yardage, running with the ball already in their hands.  As an example, in 2011, Tom Brady threw for over 5200 yards.  Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez were all in the top 10 in YAC.  Almost 2000 of his yards came while Brady was watching his guy run with the ball....and that's only to those 3.  In 2012, less than 1/2 (48%) of Brady's passing yards came from him throwing the ball in the air.  For comparison, Cutler was at 56%, and with Forte being the 2nd leading receiver, many of those came on dumpoffs, which are obviously not as productive than a run after catch when the ball is thrown further down the field.

In comes the West Coast Offense.  While not as in vogue as it was years ago, every team typically run some WCO concepts in its base formations.  The WR screen we grew to love (or is it loathe?) in the days of Gary Crowton as OC, is a staple play of the WCO (just not the only play, Crowton!).  But also, the west-coast offense includes things foreign to recent Bears OC's such as quick slants, rollouts, TE seams.  These play designs allow the QB to get the ball out of his hands, not only to slow down a pass rush, but also to simply get yards by creating situations in which the receiver has to only beat 1 guy in order to pick up a big gain (see opening drive completion to Jeffery in Oakland).  These type of concepts also opens up double moves and the deep passing game as the DL will be less focused on getting to the passer if the ball is typically gone before they have a chance. 

YAC will be the key in determining whether the Bears offense is sufficient or not.  In a league where Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, and rookies have come into the league to throw for 4,000....there's no reason why Jay Cutler shouldn't at least be sniffing that number.  Last time Cutler was in the WCO, he threw for 4,500+ in Denver.  Also was the last time he didn't get sacked a ton of times.  I have no reason not to have faith that an improved OL, improved WR talent, and a real offensive gameplan will get Cutler to the 3,800-4,200 passing yards threshold.  And if that happens with a sufficient running game and an opportunistic defense, the Bears will surprise many and be one of the top teams in the league this year.