Week 4: CHICAGO BEARS at Detroit Lions

Couldn't ask for a better start.  Bears are 3-0.  And much to my delight, they have gotten there with the offense leading the way with 2 late offensive TDs in close wins, and one more to pull away last week from the Steelers.  Under Marc Trestman, the Bears definitely appear to be making the transition to an offensive team.  And while the defense has given up its share of big plays and points, they continue to make a huge mark every week by forcing a league-high 11 turnovers and scoring TDs on 3 of them.  The combination of an opportunistic defense and a competent offense has led to a perfect start to 2013.

Standing in the way of 4-0 is a familiar foe, the Detroit Lions.  The Bears have beaten the Lions 7 of the 8 times they've played with Jay Cutler as QB.  However, only 1 of the 5 wins in the last 3 years came by more than 5 points.  That win was a 37-13 blowout, but with 21 of those points scored by the Bears defense and special teams.  The one Bears loss came in 2011, on the road, on Monday Night Football, and in front of a crowd that was amped up by being on national TV for the first time in over a decade.  That frenzied crowd was a huge factor in the game, forcing a whopping 8 false starts on the offense and another on special teams.

That Detroit win also was pulled off by the only good Lions team the Bears have seen in the last several years.  This year's Lions look to be pretty solid also, so far.  As usual, the Lions still throw the ball all over the field.  Stafford is 2nd in the NFL in passing yards thru 3 games.  The matchup everyone will be watching is Charles Tillman vs. Calvin (because apparently Johnson is too busy doing press).  Last year, the Bears didn't give Tillman a whole lot of help on Megatron and he famously held him to 3 catches for just 34 yards the first time they met in 2012.  This year, with Peanut a little gimpy (and frankly struggling in coverage) I don't expect anywhere near that shutdown job.  Probably going to see something closer to the 6-95 that Calvin has averaged against the Bears in the other 7 games in the last 4 years.  Big games from AJ Green and Antonio Brown didn't kill the Bears, and neither will a big one from Calvin.  What could hurt though, is a big game from Reggie Bush.

The Bears catch a break with Nate Burleson's pizza delivery failure, as he actually leads the team in catches so far.  But the Lions will get both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell out in pass routes, where they have combined for over 300 yards thru 3 games.  The Lions will use Bush similar to how they used Jahvid Best a few years ago.  Best hurt the Bears with a big 88 yard run in the 1 Lions win in 2011.  He also hurt them in 2010 with a 45-yard run and 32-yard catch.  Bush also has a little history against the Bears, with 7 catches for 132 yards, and an 88-yard TD in the 2006 NFC Championship.  With the 2nd threat out for Detroit, the Bears may be able to cheat a little bit after doubling up on Calvin.  When the Lions line Bush up in the slot, look for the Bears to cover him with a CB (Jennings or Frey) or possibly bringing Wright down over the slot to try to get a bump on him before handing him off to the LBs.  But I expect Wright (and Conte) will be back in 2-deep a lot to prevent the big play the Bears have given up so many times early on this season.  It is imperative that the Bears get pressure from the front 4 in this one.  Stafford is pretty deadly vs. the blitz and Calvin Johnson or Bush in 1-on-1 coverage, with a single high safety, is pretty scary.

As for the Bears offense, I came away from the Steelers game thinking, "boy this offense seems to be able to score when they need to".  Two comeback wins and a late put-away TD when the offense had stalled for most of 2 quarters stand out to me.  But looking further into the stats, there may be something to "scoring when they need to".  I compiled the Bears stats when either tied or behind in a game so far this season.  Since they never trailed in Pittsburgh, and were only shortly tied at 0, I added the stats when the Steelers were within 4 points of the Bears.   In the stated situations, the Bears offense has run the ball 47 times for 223 yards, a 4.7 average.  In the air, Cutler has been 48 for 69 for 553 yards when his team is not in control of the scoreboard.  That's good for a 70% completion and over 8 yards per attempt.  All 6 of Cutler's TDs (and all 3 INTs to be fair) have come with the Bears trailing, tied or with the Steelers within striking distance.  Compare that to the Bears offense while in the lead (36-92, 2.6 ypc and 20-32, 140 yards, 0 TDs, 62.5%, 4.4 ypa) and I think that's a pretty telling sign that this offense may be better than anyone really knows just yet.

The offensive numbers certainly aren't gaudy at this point, but a middle-of-the-pack offense is more than the Bears have had in ages.  And the offense when trailing projects to a top 7 offense if they keep that approach all game.  As a guy that prefers an aggressive approach, I shared most Bears fan sentiments of disappointment not going for the kill in Pittsburgh, not going for a score before halftime last week, kicking on 4th down and short instead of going for it.  But the Trestman/Emery "Moneyball on the Gridiron" approach is to not beat yourself.  The Bears haven't taken chances when ahead.  They haven't had pre-snap penalties (2nd fewest penalties in NFL).  Trestman's confidence in his offense has meant not risking a stupid play for the sake of a few more points when your team is already in control. 

Most of this week, I have feared that this would be the week of the 1st loss.  And while that still may very well happen, I'm much more confident after looking at the above numbers.  I think the OL is well prepared to deal with this strong DL.  While Suh may get his share of hurries and maybe even a couple sacks, the key is not to have the all out jail-break from the DL like the Bears have had in the past.  In the first 3 weeks, Long had trouble with the Cincy inside pass rush (mostly Peko), Bushrod and Mills had trouble with Allen and Robison, and Mills and Slauson had trouble with Woodley and Keisel.  Yet, the Bears have only given up 3 sacks because Cutler has had room to step up or aside of the pressure on most occasions.  The Bears should be able to run vs. the Lions front 7.  Cutler has always had big games passing against them, despite the pressure he's faced.  And while Ford Field will undoubtedly be loud, there's NO chance the Bears have 8 pre-snap penalties again, ruining the majority of their drives. 

I see no reason why the Bears shouldn't win this game.  Big key will be mistakes.  The Lions are a consistent mistake team with penalties and turnovers.  The Bears have not shown to be mistake prone so far under Trestman.  A shootout is possible, but I think that actually favors the Bears, because the more Stafford puts it up, the more likely it is for the best turnover forcing team to do their thing.  A low-scoring close game also favors the Bears for obvious reasons.  But the defense has to play better or the Lions could make a statement against their division rivals.