Week 2: BEARS vs. Minnesota Vikings

After 1 week, the Bears "are who we thought they were".  The "bend but don't break" defense, did a lot of bending, but when it came down to it, they were their usual opportunistic selves, with a pair of INTs and a key forced fumble when the game could have swung the other way.  What was not the same was that Jay Cutler was left pretty clean with 0 sacks taken and very few hits allowed.  And while Brandon Marshall was again the leading receiver, Jeffery and M. Bennett chipped in with huge timely catches and a substantial amount of targets to take the pressure off Jay to force it to his star WR.  When all was said and done, the Bears won their 4th straight season opener.

Now onto Week 2.  After the most recent 2 of those 1-0 starts, the Bears have done an about face in the very next week, and lost the 2nd game of each season in ugly fashion.  In the last 2 week 2s (also in new offenses), Cutler has barely been able to complete 40% of his passes and has thrown 4 INTs (all vs. GB in 2012), while the Bears have suffered double digit defeats.

As I predicted, the formerly 10-6 playoff participant Vikings, struggled out of the gate.  Frankly, on paper, the Vikings don't look like a very good team.  One of the bottom 3 passing efficient teams in the league last year.  Bottom 1/4 in the league defensively vs. the pass.  Gave the ball away more than they took it from their opponents.  The Vikings made the playoffs last year with smoke and mirrors.  But where there are smoke and mirrors, there is fire.  And that fire is Adrian Peterson!  I'm not going to waste my time and say, "oh the Bears gotta stop Peterson to win".  They really don't have to.  While Peterson does have the ability to beat them alone, the key is not allowing Ponder to make easy, comfortable, and short passes to give them any type of balance.  While Ponder only threw for 91 yards in the Vikings' win over the Bears last year, he was able to convert 5 3rd downs by throwing short passes and having his receiver run to get the first down.  The last 2 came on a key 4th quarter drive that started at their own 1 yard line and led to them flipping the field and taking precious time off the clock with a 14-point lead.  Like AJ Green last week, Peterson will get his yards.  The key is going to be making the Vikes one-dimensional.  Greg Jennings and Kyle Rudolph have hurt the Bears in the past, but if the Bears keep them in check (especially on 3rd down), they win this game provided they don't turn the ball over a ton. 

On offense, I'll be interested to see how the Vikes defense Brandon Marshall.  The typical gameplan is to make someone else on the Bears beat you, but the Minnesota D allowed 250 yards and 22 catches on 37 targets to Marshall last year, when he was the only option the Bears had.  Plus, Minnesota just game-planned to stop Calvin Johnson.  They shut him down, but watched the rest of the team pick them apart, including a whopping 168 yards receiving from the RB position.  Even without Bush's 77 yard catch-and-run, that's still a significant number.  Add in a 22-yarder to the backup TE and the middle of the field looks to be there for the taking this weekend, even if they focus on taking B out of the game. 

Matt Bowen detailed in the Tribune exactly what I was thinking would be successful for the Bears.  Marshall's presence vs the Vikings' Cover 2 should leave the middle of the field open for Jeffery in the slot, Bennett up the seam, and Forte in the short middle.  Also, watch for recent pickup, Dante Rosario to be a factor in the 2 TE set.  The Bears most successful formation in Week 1, was the ace formation (single back), with 2 WRs and double TEs.  They were able to run and throw out of this formation, and that's with Bennett having a below average run blocking game and the 2nd TE (Maneri and Adams) being non-threats as receivers.  Rosario can really get down the field and should open up things a little more in the ace grouping.

The "experts" are all picking the Bears in this one.  It makes sense.  The Bears are coming off a big win vs. an AFC contender, the Vikings are coming off a double-digit division loss.  The Bears are at Soldier Field, where Minnesota has won just 1 time since 2001.  But the desperate team is always very dangerous in the NFL.  An 0-2 start in the division would basically kill any hopes they have for a division title.  That being said, I don't think the Vikings had much hope to begin with and the Bears have no business losing this game.  The only way they do is if the offense is reckless with the ball (pick 6 and INT return inside the Chi 5 in the 21-14 loss last year).  I think this year, Cutler has too many weapons and the improved protection to ensure that the team doesn't turn the ball over excessively.