This is probably going to be more of a summary of the first 6 games of the season than a preview of the game to come. But I just have to boast about this defense! The Bears D is doing some ridiculous things so far this season. The Bears defense has allowed 10.7 points per game (taking out a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and a fake FG for TD in Green Bay). The defense has allowed 6 touchdowns this year, while scoring 5 themselves. Of the 58 points the defense has allowed, a whopping 28 of them have come in the last 34 seconds of either the 1st or 2nd half. Meaning, the Bears have allowed 30 total points NOT against a 2-minute drill, when they are predominately playing a "soft" Cover 2 scheme. And while the defense does need to tighten up vs. the hurry up offense, keep in mind that of the 28 late in half points, 8 vs. the Cowboys came with most of the second string defense on the field. Another 3 came on a crazy 56-yard FG by the Rams in Soldier Field.
Having allowed just 10.7 points per game. 71 rush yards allowed per game. On pace for 56 sacks and an astonishing 56 turnovers to match. This Bears defense is on pace to go down as one of the best in NFL history. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bears defense is that they are doing it with Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers as "role" players and not stars. While Peppers gets the attention of 2 blockers nearly every play, he's been about the 6th or 7th most productive player on the defense. Right now, Henry Melton has been the star of the defensive line, leading the team in sacks and the DL in tackles. Israel Idonije has also been more productive than Peppers in terms of stats. On the last level of the defense, Major Wright has been playing at a probowl level, with strong tackling and providing the consistency he and the rest of the revolving door at S couldn't provide in coverage last year. On the subject of "Pro Bowl level play"....in about 10 days from now Charles "Peanut" Tillman will be named the NFC defensive player of the month, to join his teammate, Tim Jennings as the lone winners of that award so far this season. And in the middle, I feel that Lance Briggs has been the best player on the football team. Briggs leads the team in tackles, has 2 INTs, both for TDs. He's 2nd on the team with 6 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles, and he's been a factor in the pass rush with a sack and several pressures. Chris Conte and Stephen Paea look to be coming around. Neither are making the big splash plays that their teammates are, but both are in the right place most of the time. Once the playmaking comes, the Bears will be 11 deep with defensive vultures. And speaking of coming around, Urlacher looks like he is starting to do that. He's making more plays in the backfield every week. He's getting his hands on more throws in the passing game.
As for this game, it's going to provide a challenge for the Bears D. Last year the Bears really struggled with Cam Newton's size and mobility. They were frustrated with his ability to escape the pocket (to throw, not run) and moreso by their inability to get him to the ground after they had their hands on him. But this year, Cam looks a little off and the Bears D looks a LOT hungrier. I think the Bears will be prepared for his strength and mobility and fare much better this time around. Steve Smith has historically given the Bears problems, so it will be interesting to see how they handle him with the CBs playing at such a high level. I'd like to see a similar strategy with Tillman or Jennings pressing him at the line with safety help deep. Force Cam to throw it to someone else, or make a mistake (as he has many times this year) trying to get the ball to Smith.
On offense, the last 2 years the Bears could have beaten Carolina with me at QB. Matt Forte has run against them at will with over 370 yards in the 2 games. But don't expect the same this year. Knowing Forte has destroyed them and that the Bears passing offense has been inconsistent, I expect Carolina to put a lot of effort into stopping the run, and forcing Jay Cutler to beat them with injured ribs. And I'd imagine when they get the Bears into passing situations, they will try to make Cutler beat them by throwing to someone other than Brandon Marshall. Normally, I'd say this is a good chance to get others involved in the passing game, but they aren't good enough to stop Marshall with all the attention anyway. Carolina's pass D has been below average this year, but they haven't been that bad. They play a lot of Cover 2 and have done a good job of not letting WRs get behind them for big plays. What they have allowed though is teams to dink and dunk them all the way down the field. Look for the Bears to throw a lot on first down, especially with safe throws and screens to the outside or to Forte as the checkdown. This will eventually open up the run game for Forte, or beat the Panthers into submission.
This is the game to get the Bears passing game on a roll. If the Bears can get the passing game going, with a top 10 rushing attack and the league's best defense, this team is a Superbowl favorite, not just a contender. If the offense gets going, frankly, this game shouldn't be close.
This blog is solely used to provide both Steelers and Bears fans with a very realistic look at their teams upcoming possible draft picks.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 6- Bears vs. Lions, Game Preview
Bye weeks suck! Not playing football on Sunday afternoon also sucks! But I do take solace in the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on Monday Night Football under Jay Cutler. Lovie is actually 9-2 on MNF as Bears coach, with only 3 of them (3-0) being in Chicago. And I like the fact that the Bears get 14-days off before facing a division opponent at home.
In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense. It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season. In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight. Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same. The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%. Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling.
Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run. However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense. Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games). And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs. I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath. Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past. Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall. I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week.
On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford. The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4. It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week. But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player. Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson. Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed? Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top. Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron. If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle. The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry. In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench. Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.
Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season. Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none. Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week. With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two. Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year. Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more. Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in. I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.
I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough. This may be the Lions season on the line. A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them. Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race. But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this. Now just gotta go get it done!
In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense. It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season. In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight. Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same. The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%. Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling.
Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run. However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense. Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games). And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs. I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath. Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past. Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall. I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week.
On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford. The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4. It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week. But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player. Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson. Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed? Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top. Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron. If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle. The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry. In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench. Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.
Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season. Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none. Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week. With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two. Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year. Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more. Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in. I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.
I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough. This may be the Lions season on the line. A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them. Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race. But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this. Now just gotta go get it done!
Saturday, October 13, 2012
2013 NFL Draft, Top 50 Prospects
With the Bears on a bye week, I decided it was a good time to get back to the main reason this blog was started, THE DRAFT!
I have compiled my list of the top 50 prospects eligible for the upcoming draft, minus a few players I think will/should stay in school for another year. Without further ado....here's the list, with brief summaries of each player.
I have compiled my list of the top 50 prospects eligible for the upcoming draft, minus a few players I think will/should stay in school for another year. Without further ado....here's the list, with brief summaries of each player.
| 1 | Jarvis Jones | OLB | Georgia | could be elite pass rusher or next Lawrence Timmons |
| 2 | Star Lotulelei | DT | Utah | big, strong, athletic. Not quite Ngata, but very good |
| 3 | Jonathan Hankins | DT | Ohio St | not much pass rush, but immovable object inside |
| 4 | Barkevious Mingo | OLB | LSU | athletic, better vs. run than expected. Star potential |
| 5 | Geno Smith | QB | WVU | Aaron Rodgers-like precision, great deep ball, leader |
| 6 | Matt Barkley | QB | USC | better than Leinart/Sanchez, but needs team around him |
| 7 | Justin Hunter | WR | Tennessee | looks like a faster Sidney Rice coming out, similar knee issues too |
| 8 | Eric Reid | FS | LSU | not the elite S prospect like Berry was, but eventual pro-bowler |
| 9 | Keenan Allen | WR | California | 3-step, 5-step, gets open. Versatile WR, fits into several roles |
| 10 | Tyler Wilson | QB | Arkansas | Cutler II? Gunslinger, fits ball into coverage, needs protection |
| 11 | Chance Warmack | OG | Alabama | Prototype. Big, mobile, if he improves feet, its over for NFL DTs |
| 12 | Johnathan Banks | CB | Miss St | NFL WRs are getting bigger, this guy can matchup size/speed |
| 13 | Tyler Bray | QB | Tennessee | accuracy issues or not, 6'6" w/ rocket arm doesn't grow on trees |
| 14 | Manti Te'o | LB | Notre Dame | playing pass D now? 3-down total package LB, inside 3-4 or 4-3 |
| 15 | Dee Milliner | CB | Alabama | Size, speed, physical, only ? Is can he play w/o dominant front 7 |
| 16 | Barrett Jones | OG | Alabama | Not a true stud, but 8-10 year starter at any of C, LG, RG, even LT |
| 17 | Sam Montgomery | DE | LSU | higher to some, but needs to add weight, "get off", HUGE upside |
| 18 | Xavier Rhodes | CB | Florida St | press coverage CB, almost exclusively. Good tape vs. top WRs |
| 19 | Marcus Lattimore | RB | S Carolina | Knee injury stinks, but #1 HS recruit of '10 is clone of Arian Foster |
| 20 | Luke Joeckel | OT | Texas A&M | Starting LT since Frosh yr, had success vs. a lot of NFL DE talent |
| 21 | Bjoern Werner | DE | Florida St | Athletic, motor, upside. Perfect 4-3 DE size, can't play 3-4 though |
| 22 | Robert Woods | WR | USC | Not seeing Marvin Harrison comps, but good player, scary in slot |
| 23 | David Amerson | CB/FS | NC State | think he's an NFL FS. FS with coverage skills still worth high pick |
| 24 | Jonathan Cooper | OG | UNC | Solid, 4-year starter, rarely misses assignments at DL or LB level |
| 25 | Tyler Eifert | TE | Notre Dame | Excellent receiver. 6'6", can run, who cares if he can block? |
| 26 | Kawaan Short | DT | Purdue | Dominates at times, but can disappear. Conditioning is key |
| 27 | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan | Looks the part, but very raw. Nastier version Nate Solder |
| 28 | John Jenkins | DT | Georgia | Immovable object. Won't put up stats, but occupies 2 OL all times |
| 29 | Terrance Williams | WR | Baylor | Not a #1 WR, but strong 2, who can stretch the field. Hands? |
| 30 | Jackson Jeffcoat | DE | Texas | Fast, edge rusher, more OLB than 4-3 DE at this point, can add lbs |
| 31 | Corey Lemonier | OLB | Auburn | Least athletic, but most consistent producer of deep OLB/DE class |
| 32 | Alex Okafor | DE | Texas | More NFL ready than teammate, more 4-3 DE, plays solid run D |
| 33 | Dallas Thomas | OG/OT | Tennessee | Good feet and hand placement, moved to LG after 3 years @ LT |
| 34 | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M | Athletic, needs to get bigger/stronger, but dad is HOF OT, I'm sold! |
| 35 | Sharrif Floyd | DT | Florida | Uses hands really well, quick enough to play some DE, Melton 2.0? |
| 36 | DJ Fluker | OT | Alabama | Either a RT or big LG ala Gallery, at next level to me, very strong |
| 37 | William Gholston | DE | Michigan St | Poor man's Quinton Coples, shows flashes, but needs more |
| 38 | Matt Elam | S | Florida | Little size & speed, but plays big in box. Best cover S in draft. |
| 39 | Michael Buchanan | DE | Illinois | A blur off the edge, flashed while watching Mercilus. Run D is ? |
| 40 | TJ McDonald | S | USC | Versatile S, with NFL bloodlines, experience in pro style D |
| 41 | Khaled Holmes | OC | USC | Athletic, tough C in the mold of the Pounceys, not quite as good |
| 42 | Alec Ogletree | LB | Georgia | Long, fast LB can play inside or outside in 30 or 40 front, climber |
| 43 | Brennan Williams | OT | UNC | Son of NFL DT, strong run blocking RT, can work on footwork |
| 44 | Kenny Vaccaro | S | Texas | Playmaking S who can really run and cover, can work on tackling |
| 45 | Sylvester Williams | DT | UNC | 4-3 or 3-4 NT, good motor, not much of a pass rusher |
| 46 | Oday Aboushi | OT | Virginia | Raw, with lots of LT upside. If feet don't come, could play LG |
| 47 | Dion Jordan | DE | Oregon | long (6-7) lean athlete, who can bend, can get stronger at POA |
| 48 | Kevin Reddick | LB | UNC | Laterally gifted LB, could play inside or strong in 4-3. Can cover |
| 49 | Sean Porter | OLB | Texas A&M | Not the next Von Miller, but could be 4-3 Sam LB, blitz at times |
| 50 | Tavon Austin | WR | WVU | slot WR, kick returner, productive. Harvin, Antonio Brown type |
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Week 5- Bears @ Jaguars, Game Preview
Lovie is known for breaking the season down in quarters, by each set of 4 games. Well, the Bears got out of the 1st quarter of the season in pretty good shape. At 3-1, the Bears are about where I expected them to be. Won the 2 games at home against teams they were clearly superior to. Beat the Cowboys sounded on the road. Only loss was losing the home opener for the Packers on a short week. Granted, I was pretty optimistic about the GB game given both team's openers, but that wasn't a game that was circled on the schedule as one the Bears "had to have".
The 2nd quarter of the season starts, and while I don't like to look ahead, 3-1 looks again to be worst acceptable case scenario. Four straight 1-win teams on the schedule. On paper, the Detroit game looks to be the toughest, but that is a home game with the Bears having 14 days off before welcoming the Lions back to a place they got annihilated last year. A home game the following week is sandwiched by road games at Tennessee in Week 9, and this week in Jacksonville.
Many are going to point to this game as a potential letdown game because of the short week and bye coming up. But if there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to happen defensively. The defense hasn't had to completely carry the team like in years past, but they have done their part in keeping the offense in the game in Green Bay and vs. the Rams until they got going (or didn't in Week 2's case). Monday night, the D provided all the momentum plays with 2 TDs and a big turnover in the redzone when the Cowboys looked to make it a 1-score game again. A couple years ago, the Bears beat the Eagles in a national televised game of what most thought were two evenly matched teams. The Bears won the game, but then kind of went thru the motions the next week vs. the 2-9 Lions. The defense didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. And backup QB, Drew Stanton had a 102 QB rating.
However, even a "going thru the motions" game by the D should be good enough to beat the Jags. For one, the offense should be able to move the ball and put up enough points to beat a Jags teams that has struggled to score points for several years now. Secondly, the Bears defense is really, really tough to score on. The Bears have allowed 68 points this season. But you have to take out 14 allowed by a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and the fake FG TD in Green Bay. That leaves 54 points in 4 games. While that is good, consider that the Bears have given up their share of points in garbage time. The Colts scored their last TD when down 20 points in the 4th quarter. The "great" Packers offense got a last second FG before halftime, as did the Rams. The Cowboys scored 15 of their 18 points in the last 35 seconds of each half. The Bears defense has allowed a grand total of 33 points in the first 29 minutes of the 8 halves of football they've played this season. 9 of those 33 have come on FGs over 45 yards, 7 came on a 1-play, 26 yard drive in the GB game after a Cutler INT, and the aforementioned 7 came with the Bears up 20 on the Colts.
On defense (and I hope the Bears coaches are taking note here), the Bears might just see a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. It's no secret the Jags will try to get the ball to MJD in the run game, in the pass game, they will do everything they can to test Urlacher's health. And while Gabbert is the least productive QB in the league (again), he doesn't make a ton of mistakes (hard to mess up a check down throw), so the Bears shouldn't count on padding their league leading 11 INTs much. Gabbert though, won't always check down. I expect him to take a couple shots deep in Cecil Shorts' direction, especially if the Bears start to commit Wright and/or Conte in the box to stop MJD. Shorts is a big play threat with 1/2 of his 6 catches going for 20+ this year, including a game-winning 80-yarder vs. the Colts. Then again, the Bears also are among the league leaders in sacks, and the Jags can't pass block very well so deep shots may not even be possible for Blaine. With Laurent Robinson out, the Bears will likely allow Charles Tillman to follow Justin Blackmon around the field and get physical with the Jags' 2012 first round pick. Blackmon showed vs. a much smaller Leonard Johnson, last year vs. Iowa St that he can struggle with tough coverage. It doesn't get much tougher than Peanut.
On offense, the inconsistent Bears offense faces a defense that doesn't do very much well. They don't rush the pass well, with only 2 sacks so far on the season. They have only caused 4 turnovers in 4 games. And they are 30th in the league in run defense. Not going to provide much insight this week, but basically the offense has to take what the Jags give them. If they sell out to help that porous run D, then the passing game will be wide open. If they try to drop back in their typical 2-deep coverage, Forte and Bush will eventually gash them in the run game. If they blitz, they don't have anyone that can cover Marshall or Jeffery's size or Devin Hester's speed.
Not necessarily expecting a blowout this week, as the stature of the two teams suggest. But the Bears should be able to win this game. It'll probably be another boring game like the Rams. If the Bears come out flat, the Jags may be able to score a couple times, but I don't see many scenarios where they get more than 17 points offensively (with that being the very high end). And if the Bears offense doesn't completely crap the bed or allow defensive scores, the Bears should be able to win. Whether they beat the spread (-5.5) or not depends on if the offense completely clicks or just does enough like the Rams game.
The 2nd quarter of the season starts, and while I don't like to look ahead, 3-1 looks again to be worst acceptable case scenario. Four straight 1-win teams on the schedule. On paper, the Detroit game looks to be the toughest, but that is a home game with the Bears having 14 days off before welcoming the Lions back to a place they got annihilated last year. A home game the following week is sandwiched by road games at Tennessee in Week 9, and this week in Jacksonville.
Many are going to point to this game as a potential letdown game because of the short week and bye coming up. But if there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to happen defensively. The defense hasn't had to completely carry the team like in years past, but they have done their part in keeping the offense in the game in Green Bay and vs. the Rams until they got going (or didn't in Week 2's case). Monday night, the D provided all the momentum plays with 2 TDs and a big turnover in the redzone when the Cowboys looked to make it a 1-score game again. A couple years ago, the Bears beat the Eagles in a national televised game of what most thought were two evenly matched teams. The Bears won the game, but then kind of went thru the motions the next week vs. the 2-9 Lions. The defense didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. And backup QB, Drew Stanton had a 102 QB rating.
However, even a "going thru the motions" game by the D should be good enough to beat the Jags. For one, the offense should be able to move the ball and put up enough points to beat a Jags teams that has struggled to score points for several years now. Secondly, the Bears defense is really, really tough to score on. The Bears have allowed 68 points this season. But you have to take out 14 allowed by a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and the fake FG TD in Green Bay. That leaves 54 points in 4 games. While that is good, consider that the Bears have given up their share of points in garbage time. The Colts scored their last TD when down 20 points in the 4th quarter. The "great" Packers offense got a last second FG before halftime, as did the Rams. The Cowboys scored 15 of their 18 points in the last 35 seconds of each half. The Bears defense has allowed a grand total of 33 points in the first 29 minutes of the 8 halves of football they've played this season. 9 of those 33 have come on FGs over 45 yards, 7 came on a 1-play, 26 yard drive in the GB game after a Cutler INT, and the aforementioned 7 came with the Bears up 20 on the Colts.
On defense (and I hope the Bears coaches are taking note here), the Bears might just see a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. It's no secret the Jags will try to get the ball to MJD in the run game, in the pass game, they will do everything they can to test Urlacher's health. And while Gabbert is the least productive QB in the league (again), he doesn't make a ton of mistakes (hard to mess up a check down throw), so the Bears shouldn't count on padding their league leading 11 INTs much. Gabbert though, won't always check down. I expect him to take a couple shots deep in Cecil Shorts' direction, especially if the Bears start to commit Wright and/or Conte in the box to stop MJD. Shorts is a big play threat with 1/2 of his 6 catches going for 20+ this year, including a game-winning 80-yarder vs. the Colts. Then again, the Bears also are among the league leaders in sacks, and the Jags can't pass block very well so deep shots may not even be possible for Blaine. With Laurent Robinson out, the Bears will likely allow Charles Tillman to follow Justin Blackmon around the field and get physical with the Jags' 2012 first round pick. Blackmon showed vs. a much smaller Leonard Johnson, last year vs. Iowa St that he can struggle with tough coverage. It doesn't get much tougher than Peanut.
On offense, the inconsistent Bears offense faces a defense that doesn't do very much well. They don't rush the pass well, with only 2 sacks so far on the season. They have only caused 4 turnovers in 4 games. And they are 30th in the league in run defense. Not going to provide much insight this week, but basically the offense has to take what the Jags give them. If they sell out to help that porous run D, then the passing game will be wide open. If they try to drop back in their typical 2-deep coverage, Forte and Bush will eventually gash them in the run game. If they blitz, they don't have anyone that can cover Marshall or Jeffery's size or Devin Hester's speed.
Not necessarily expecting a blowout this week, as the stature of the two teams suggest. But the Bears should be able to win this game. It'll probably be another boring game like the Rams. If the Bears come out flat, the Jags may be able to score a couple times, but I don't see many scenarios where they get more than 17 points offensively (with that being the very high end). And if the Bears offense doesn't completely crap the bed or allow defensive scores, the Bears should be able to win. Whether they beat the spread (-5.5) or not depends on if the offense completely clicks or just does enough like the Rams game.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Week 4- Bears @ Cowboys, Game Preview
Week 1- Both teams clicking on all cylinders. One upends the defending world champions on their home field. The other shows the world that their new-found offensive weapons are something to be reckoned with. The word "Superbowl" is mentioned when talking about both teams.
Week 2- Both teams get embarrassed on the road. One gets a long week and takes a 20-point loss. One gets a short week and takes a double digit loss.
Week 3- Both teams pick up much needed victories, but neither is impressive. Both offenses struggle with lackluster OL play, inconsistency from receivers, erratic QB play, and underwhelming play calling.
Despite being polar opposites schematically and philosophically, the Bears and Cowboys have been mirror images of each other for a few years now. Both teams have pretty boy QBs, that have dated reality TV stars, and who the media loves to hate. Both teams have also very recently taken heartbreaking Week 17 losses to allow their biggest rivals to be the "last team in" the playoffs, only to see said rival hoist the Lombardi trophy, 5 weeks later. So far this season, both teams have shown flashes of brilliance on offense, but both have been carried by strong defense, particularly pass defense.
The Cowboys bolstered their pass game this offseason by signing FA, Brandon Carr and trading up to draft #1 CB, Morris Claiborne. The Bears kept the status quo, and it has paid heavy dividends. Tim Jennings currently leads the NFL, allowing a 4.6 passer rating to QBs who dare throw his way. Jennings leads the league with 4 INTs, and one of his pass breakups last week led to a Major Wright TD to ice the Rams. Yet, Jennings has had a ton of balls thrown his way. That says to me, Charles Tillman must really be playing good football on the other side of the field. Throw in DJ Moore having a strong Week 3, and there's your key matchups on both sides.
Tillman-Jennings-Moore will presumably play a lot of man coverage vs. Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Kevin Ogletree. Likewise, Claiborne and Carr will be 1-on-1 a lot vs. Marshall and Jeffery. Helping the Bears trio is a defensive front 4 that has been dominant getting after the QB this year. The Bears lead the league with 14 QB sacks, with 5 players having at least 1.5. So, the Bears will come after the suspect Cowboys OL from all angles. But I would be foolish if I left out the fact that the 'Boys have possibly the best pass rusher in the NFL going against possibly the worst pass blocking OT in the NFL, on their side. If the Bears help out Webb a lot, watch for the blitz (don't have much help for Ware rushing the passer) and the Cowboys to gamble with their CBs and try to force Cutler into a poor throw.
The Cowboys have been strong defensively to start the year, but I feel there are ways the Bears can attack them. Some of the parts have changed, but Week 2 from 2010 is a blueprint of how the Bears can win this game. The Bears need to play fast. Not sure how much no huddle the Bears have in the playbook, but the Cowboys aren't a very deep team defensively. Ratliff and Coleman missed last week along their D-line. Spears and Lissemore have joined them on the injury report for this week. The Bears need to get the ball out of Cutler's hands quickly and put pressure on the Cowboys to tackle the Bears big WRs in the open field. Unlike 2 years ago, I do think the Bears will be able to run the ball against Dallas. Bush looks good to go this week, but if Forte also is able to go, the Bears will have the potential to hit them up inside and out to keep them off-balanced.
I also look for special teams to have an impact in this game. Hester loves it indoors, and has been closer and closer to breaking one the last 2 weeks. Bryant has also shown some explosion in the return game and had a return TD vs. the Bears in 2010. Short fields will play a huge factor this week, with 2 struggling offense. But despite the struggling offenses in this one, I actually expect some points to be put on the board. Maybe even as many as the 47 from a couple years ago. Winner gets a huge boost, as the victor will move to 3-1 in the competitive NFC. Dallas may have more at stake with games @ Balt, Atl, and Philly with the Giants also coming to town in the next 5. The Bears follow with 4 games they should be favored in, before the schedule gets really tough. A Bears win would give them a strong shot at a playoff berth.
Week 2- Both teams get embarrassed on the road. One gets a long week and takes a 20-point loss. One gets a short week and takes a double digit loss.
Week 3- Both teams pick up much needed victories, but neither is impressive. Both offenses struggle with lackluster OL play, inconsistency from receivers, erratic QB play, and underwhelming play calling.
Despite being polar opposites schematically and philosophically, the Bears and Cowboys have been mirror images of each other for a few years now. Both teams have pretty boy QBs, that have dated reality TV stars, and who the media loves to hate. Both teams have also very recently taken heartbreaking Week 17 losses to allow their biggest rivals to be the "last team in" the playoffs, only to see said rival hoist the Lombardi trophy, 5 weeks later. So far this season, both teams have shown flashes of brilliance on offense, but both have been carried by strong defense, particularly pass defense.
The Cowboys bolstered their pass game this offseason by signing FA, Brandon Carr and trading up to draft #1 CB, Morris Claiborne. The Bears kept the status quo, and it has paid heavy dividends. Tim Jennings currently leads the NFL, allowing a 4.6 passer rating to QBs who dare throw his way. Jennings leads the league with 4 INTs, and one of his pass breakups last week led to a Major Wright TD to ice the Rams. Yet, Jennings has had a ton of balls thrown his way. That says to me, Charles Tillman must really be playing good football on the other side of the field. Throw in DJ Moore having a strong Week 3, and there's your key matchups on both sides.
Tillman-Jennings-Moore will presumably play a lot of man coverage vs. Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Kevin Ogletree. Likewise, Claiborne and Carr will be 1-on-1 a lot vs. Marshall and Jeffery. Helping the Bears trio is a defensive front 4 that has been dominant getting after the QB this year. The Bears lead the league with 14 QB sacks, with 5 players having at least 1.5. So, the Bears will come after the suspect Cowboys OL from all angles. But I would be foolish if I left out the fact that the 'Boys have possibly the best pass rusher in the NFL going against possibly the worst pass blocking OT in the NFL, on their side. If the Bears help out Webb a lot, watch for the blitz (don't have much help for Ware rushing the passer) and the Cowboys to gamble with their CBs and try to force Cutler into a poor throw.
The Cowboys have been strong defensively to start the year, but I feel there are ways the Bears can attack them. Some of the parts have changed, but Week 2 from 2010 is a blueprint of how the Bears can win this game. The Bears need to play fast. Not sure how much no huddle the Bears have in the playbook, but the Cowboys aren't a very deep team defensively. Ratliff and Coleman missed last week along their D-line. Spears and Lissemore have joined them on the injury report for this week. The Bears need to get the ball out of Cutler's hands quickly and put pressure on the Cowboys to tackle the Bears big WRs in the open field. Unlike 2 years ago, I do think the Bears will be able to run the ball against Dallas. Bush looks good to go this week, but if Forte also is able to go, the Bears will have the potential to hit them up inside and out to keep them off-balanced.
I also look for special teams to have an impact in this game. Hester loves it indoors, and has been closer and closer to breaking one the last 2 weeks. Bryant has also shown some explosion in the return game and had a return TD vs. the Bears in 2010. Short fields will play a huge factor this week, with 2 struggling offense. But despite the struggling offenses in this one, I actually expect some points to be put on the board. Maybe even as many as the 47 from a couple years ago. Winner gets a huge boost, as the victor will move to 3-1 in the competitive NFC. Dallas may have more at stake with games @ Balt, Atl, and Philly with the Giants also coming to town in the next 5. The Bears follow with 4 games they should be favored in, before the schedule gets really tough. A Bears win would give them a strong shot at a playoff berth.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Week 3- Bears vs. Rams, Game Preview
No team should be more anxious to take the field in Week 3 than the Chicago Bears. The world has been talking for 10 days about a sideline incident that has pretty much happened before in every game with every team, including Rodgers getting into James Jones face in the very same game. But anyway, after talking to the media about this for 10 days, the Bears will be ready to take the field tomorrow to show the world they are better than the team that showed up in Green Bay last Thursday night.
Many Bears fans are concerned about this feisty Rams team. And frankly, the Rams could easily be 2-0 right now had they not blown a lead to Detroit late. But as I said Week 1, if the Bears don't handle this team, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, the way they were projected before the season. The Rams have been pretty solid offensively so far this year, especially in the run game. But don't expect that to continue against the Bears D that has been pretty tough to run against for the last 10 years. The Rams have done almost nothing on defense other than intercept the ball. 4 picks in 2 games, but 3 of them came early vs. Stafford in Week 1. They've still allowed the 9th most passing yards in the league so far, despite seriously upgrading their defensive backs. Speaking of DBs....lost in the drama of the last 10 days is the fact that Green Bay completely shut down the Bears WRs, mainly Brandon Marshall by playing 2-man coverage on him, with a CB jumping short routes knowing he had safety help over the top. The Bears have to make sure that the same scheme is NOT successful again. A couple reasons why I think that may not work:
A) The Bears have had 10 days to practice against that type of coverage, and hopefully they have something in store (Cutler fitting the ball into the window between CB and FS) or getting the ball to Marshall on 3-step patterns before the safety help comes into the picture.
B) Cortland Finnegan is a cocky SOB. He was paid a lot of money. And he's going to want the challenge of taking Marshall 1-on-1 at times. And if the Bears start gashing the Rams run D, Fisher isn't going to want to commit that extra player (FS) to Marshall when he has a probowl CB at his disposal.
Cutler cannot be afraid of the 2-man coverage and find his openings to get the ball to Marshall. But he also has to pick his spots to do so.
The last few years the Bears have kind of had to be beaten in the head before they run a legitimate offensive attack. I know this is a passing league, but the reason the pass is so successful is because offenses are designed to get the ball out of the QBs hands faster and make more efficient throws. The Bears have called way too many 5-7 step drops so far thru 2 games. Quick math shows about 75-80% of drop backs have been more than 3-steps. That's not going to get it done with this OL. The Bears have big WRs now that can win in the short passing game and not get bumped off their routes like in years past.
After giving up 9 sacks in 1 half vs. the Giants in 2010, and 8 sacks vs. the Saints and Packers in Weeks 2-3 last year, the Bears were fortunate enough to play the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 of both seasons. This year, it's the Rams, who frankly, are a similar team. The Bears were able to run the ball at will both years vs. Carolina, taking all the pressure off of the QB (Todd Collins in 2010). Carolina was very weak in the middle with suspect DTs. With Brockers likely out for the Rams, they too will fit that bill. With Michael Bush getting the bulk of the action this week, the Bears will be more willing to pound the ball up the middle, taking the weight off of Cutler's (and the OL's) shoulders. I wouldn't expect Cutler to throw the ball more than 25 times in this game. And when he does throw, the Bears have to remember that Bush CAN be a factor in the passing game. Bush is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Caught 37 passes in Oakland despite only 9 starts. The checkdown should still be a viable option, unlike last week when the Bears almost refused to dump the ball after Forte went out last week.
Week 1, I expected the Bears to put up 30+ and win by 2 TDs. They did. Week 2, I expected them to be competitive and possibly get a W in Green Bay. They did not. This week, I expect a very conservative attack, but I expect them to move the ball and hand it over to the defense to stop St. Louis. Bears get back on track this Sunday!
Many Bears fans are concerned about this feisty Rams team. And frankly, the Rams could easily be 2-0 right now had they not blown a lead to Detroit late. But as I said Week 1, if the Bears don't handle this team, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, the way they were projected before the season. The Rams have been pretty solid offensively so far this year, especially in the run game. But don't expect that to continue against the Bears D that has been pretty tough to run against for the last 10 years. The Rams have done almost nothing on defense other than intercept the ball. 4 picks in 2 games, but 3 of them came early vs. Stafford in Week 1. They've still allowed the 9th most passing yards in the league so far, despite seriously upgrading their defensive backs. Speaking of DBs....lost in the drama of the last 10 days is the fact that Green Bay completely shut down the Bears WRs, mainly Brandon Marshall by playing 2-man coverage on him, with a CB jumping short routes knowing he had safety help over the top. The Bears have to make sure that the same scheme is NOT successful again. A couple reasons why I think that may not work:
A) The Bears have had 10 days to practice against that type of coverage, and hopefully they have something in store (Cutler fitting the ball into the window between CB and FS) or getting the ball to Marshall on 3-step patterns before the safety help comes into the picture.
B) Cortland Finnegan is a cocky SOB. He was paid a lot of money. And he's going to want the challenge of taking Marshall 1-on-1 at times. And if the Bears start gashing the Rams run D, Fisher isn't going to want to commit that extra player (FS) to Marshall when he has a probowl CB at his disposal.
Cutler cannot be afraid of the 2-man coverage and find his openings to get the ball to Marshall. But he also has to pick his spots to do so.
The last few years the Bears have kind of had to be beaten in the head before they run a legitimate offensive attack. I know this is a passing league, but the reason the pass is so successful is because offenses are designed to get the ball out of the QBs hands faster and make more efficient throws. The Bears have called way too many 5-7 step drops so far thru 2 games. Quick math shows about 75-80% of drop backs have been more than 3-steps. That's not going to get it done with this OL. The Bears have big WRs now that can win in the short passing game and not get bumped off their routes like in years past.
After giving up 9 sacks in 1 half vs. the Giants in 2010, and 8 sacks vs. the Saints and Packers in Weeks 2-3 last year, the Bears were fortunate enough to play the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 of both seasons. This year, it's the Rams, who frankly, are a similar team. The Bears were able to run the ball at will both years vs. Carolina, taking all the pressure off of the QB (Todd Collins in 2010). Carolina was very weak in the middle with suspect DTs. With Brockers likely out for the Rams, they too will fit that bill. With Michael Bush getting the bulk of the action this week, the Bears will be more willing to pound the ball up the middle, taking the weight off of Cutler's (and the OL's) shoulders. I wouldn't expect Cutler to throw the ball more than 25 times in this game. And when he does throw, the Bears have to remember that Bush CAN be a factor in the passing game. Bush is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Caught 37 passes in Oakland despite only 9 starts. The checkdown should still be a viable option, unlike last week when the Bears almost refused to dump the ball after Forte went out last week.
Week 1, I expected the Bears to put up 30+ and win by 2 TDs. They did. Week 2, I expected them to be competitive and possibly get a W in Green Bay. They did not. This week, I expect a very conservative attack, but I expect them to move the ball and hand it over to the defense to stop St. Louis. Bears get back on track this Sunday!
Monday, September 17, 2012
Bear Game 2 Analysis
I don't know that I'm going to do this every week, but like most Bears fans, last Thursday's game is really baffling me.
The main concern I have after re-watching this game, is who the hell let Mike Martz back into the Bears box? I'm not even going to get into J'Marcus Webb giving up 2 1/2 sacks to Clay Matthews. Not even going to get into Chris Spencer and Garza giving up 3-4 more up the middle. Why? Because I knew well before Thursday's kickoff that J'Marcus Webb could not block Matthews 1-on-1. I knew Chris Spencer would struggle picking up the blitz and handling guys like Raji and Daniels. But what I cannot understand for the life of me is, if I know the Bears can't win these matchups....and everyone who will read this knows the Bears couldn't win those matchups....then why can't the coaching staff who's been around these guys for 2-3 years not figure this out?
Cutler dropped back to pass 34 times, was sacked 7 of them. Of those 34 dropbacks, I generously counted a whopping 7 three-step drops, as I counted anything in question as a 3-step. Two of those 7 plays were 2nd and 20 and 3rd and 33 (after the Webb blown block that started the incident) respectively. Two more were late in the game as Marshall's only 2 catches. Now to be fair, I only counted 10 3-step drops in the opener vs. the Colts. However, the caveat is that the Colts weren't getting in Cutler's face with the pass rush at will.
I'm very disappointed that Mike Mar...er Tice refused to adjust his flawed game plan when; A) Cutler was getting knocked around every play or B) when Brandon Marshall went more than 2 series without a target or reception. Common sense would say that if a team is teeing off on your QB, you get the ball out of his hands faster. When you want to give routes more time to develop, you move the pocket. The Bears refused to do either, and lost miserably.
The playcalling is my main issue, but I also have a few other thoughts that came to mind while watching this game.
- For a team that is supposedly based in the Cover 2 zone defense....the Bears really suck at zone defense. The times the D was able to make stops, plays on the pass or get sacks, it's because they were in man coverage and were able to lock down the Packers WRs. The Packers only offensive TD was vs. the Cover 2 when Major Wright was well out of place.
- Every year we hear how Devin Hester is tearing it up in camp, yet he rarely shows up on Sundays. Drops passes and doesn't get open nearly as much as his speed and shiftiness would lead you to believe.
- Michael Bush is 245lbs, but he's not a FB. The Bears seem to be hellbent on using him as a battering ram between the tackles, but refuse to involve him in the passing game. Someone needs to tell the Bears that Bush caught 37 passes last year, which is impressive considering he only started 9 games.
- The Bears can still get it done on D. Aging or not, Briggs, Urlacher, Tillman and Peppers are almost as good as they've ever been. Tim Jennings needs to make the pro bowl this year.
The main concern I have after re-watching this game, is who the hell let Mike Martz back into the Bears box? I'm not even going to get into J'Marcus Webb giving up 2 1/2 sacks to Clay Matthews. Not even going to get into Chris Spencer and Garza giving up 3-4 more up the middle. Why? Because I knew well before Thursday's kickoff that J'Marcus Webb could not block Matthews 1-on-1. I knew Chris Spencer would struggle picking up the blitz and handling guys like Raji and Daniels. But what I cannot understand for the life of me is, if I know the Bears can't win these matchups....and everyone who will read this knows the Bears couldn't win those matchups....then why can't the coaching staff who's been around these guys for 2-3 years not figure this out?
Cutler dropped back to pass 34 times, was sacked 7 of them. Of those 34 dropbacks, I generously counted a whopping 7 three-step drops, as I counted anything in question as a 3-step. Two of those 7 plays were 2nd and 20 and 3rd and 33 (after the Webb blown block that started the incident) respectively. Two more were late in the game as Marshall's only 2 catches. Now to be fair, I only counted 10 3-step drops in the opener vs. the Colts. However, the caveat is that the Colts weren't getting in Cutler's face with the pass rush at will.
I'm very disappointed that Mike Mar...er Tice refused to adjust his flawed game plan when; A) Cutler was getting knocked around every play or B) when Brandon Marshall went more than 2 series without a target or reception. Common sense would say that if a team is teeing off on your QB, you get the ball out of his hands faster. When you want to give routes more time to develop, you move the pocket. The Bears refused to do either, and lost miserably.
The playcalling is my main issue, but I also have a few other thoughts that came to mind while watching this game.
- For a team that is supposedly based in the Cover 2 zone defense....the Bears really suck at zone defense. The times the D was able to make stops, plays on the pass or get sacks, it's because they were in man coverage and were able to lock down the Packers WRs. The Packers only offensive TD was vs. the Cover 2 when Major Wright was well out of place.
- Every year we hear how Devin Hester is tearing it up in camp, yet he rarely shows up on Sundays. Drops passes and doesn't get open nearly as much as his speed and shiftiness would lead you to believe.
- Michael Bush is 245lbs, but he's not a FB. The Bears seem to be hellbent on using him as a battering ram between the tackles, but refuse to involve him in the passing game. Someone needs to tell the Bears that Bush caught 37 passes last year, which is impressive considering he only started 9 games.
- The Bears can still get it done on D. Aging or not, Briggs, Urlacher, Tillman and Peppers are almost as good as they've ever been. Tim Jennings needs to make the pro bowl this year.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Week 2- Bears @ Packers, Game Preview
Well, my keys didn't really factor that much in Week 1. The Bears didn't run that much or that well up the middle vs. the undersized Colts D. The return game wasn't a huge factor. But the Bears did dominate for the most part as I expected. Now comes PACKER WEEK. Not that this wasn't going to be a pivotal game for the NFC North anyway, but the Bears have a huge chance here to put themselves in the driver's seat. With the Lions playing the Niners, who already beat the Packers....a Bears win puts them at 2-0, with the Packers at 0-2. The Bears would have the only division win, and it would be on the road. The Lions and Packers will also already have common game losses to the 49ers, meaning a Bears win over San Francisco later in the year would be like gaining another game in the division and conference......But I am getting way ahead of myself. First things first, gotta beat the Cheeseheads.
I'm probably way more confident about this game than I should be. After all, the Packers have pretty much dominated the Bears since their previous QB retired....came back...retired again....came back with another team.....retired......came back again with another team.....retired....came back...and then was knocked into retirement for good. But while Aaron Rodgers is 7-2 vs. the Bears, he's never put up quite the numbers against them as he has against other teams. And this isn't your father's Chicago Bears team.
The Packers have frankly, had their way with the Bears WRs in the past by being physical. I know this has been touched on in the media this week, but the Packers were truly able to push Johnny Knox and Devin Hester around as the 1-2 WRs on the outside. Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Charles Woodson were able to fight through Knox and Hester to break up slant patterns, they were able press them down the field and out muscle them for the ball for either an INT or an incompletion. Already, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have shown that they are not Johnny Knox on the outside. If you look back on the 3rd preseason game vs. the Giants, Jay Cutler threw to both Marshall and Jeffery on separate occasions when they were completely covered by CB, Michael Coe. Both times, Coe jumped the route for what would have been possible pick 6's last year...but both plays resulted in completed passes as Marshall and Jeffery refused to be out muscled for the ball. Now, the Packers have Sam Shields coming off the bench, with Charles Woodson at SS. Jarrett Bush is starting at CB opposite of Williams, and he should be a safety also. The 31st ranked pass defense has gotten worse, in my opinion, and the Bears passing game has gotten remarkably better in a single offseason. Not only that, but the Packers have yet to face Gabe Carimi. Carimi was lost for the season, before last year's Week 3 matchup. This is significant because Carimi will be facing off with the Packers' lone pass rusher in their front 7, Clay Matthews. Not that I expect Gabe to completely handle Matthews, but it should be a monumental improvement over Frank Omiyale (aka Frank OMG) and Lance Louis playing out of position at RT. I now welcome the blitz from Woodson, as now Cutler should be able to make the hot read without a CB being able to jump the route. The Packers would be best served by throwing out any game tape they have on the Bears the last 3 years, because it's not going to do them any good this year.
As for the defense, the Bears definitely have some work to do compared to past seasons. The possibility of Greg Jennings being out obviously works in the Bears favor. However, I was looking forward to seeing if the Week 1 version of Tim Jennings could carry over into Lambeau vs. Greg Jennings. Tim got basically eaten alive by Greg in a couple games the last 2 years, and was bench for the Week 16 game vs. GB last year. Because of that, I expect Tim Jennings to really show up tomorrow (whether he faces Jennings or James Jones) and have another productive game. If Jennings is out, that also puts either Charles Tillman (if he plays) or Kelvin Hayden on Jordy Nelson, another matchup that I really like. Nelson hasn't done very much against the Bears other than Week 16 when he saw a lot of Zach Bowman, who isn't very good. So, to me, the key matchups will be in the middle of the field. I like DJ Moore vs. Donald Driver in the slot, and about 50x more than I like Moore vs. Jennings when he lines up in the slot as he often does in the 3-4wide set. But the Bears have never been able to defend Jermichael Finley. This year probably won't be any different. Another issue for the defense may also be Randall Cobb. Cobb was essentially used as the Packers 3rd down RB vs. SF last week and had a pretty good game getting matched up on some really good LBs for the Niners. The Bears LBs are great, but not as fast as they once were and not as fast as the 49ers group. If Greg Jennings is out, this would allow the Bears to put Tim Jennings on one side with Tillman/Hayden on the other. I like both of those matchups for the Bears. It would also put Driver as the primary slot WR. I think Driver's lack of speed would allow the Bears to use DJ Moore exclusively to spy on Cobb out of the backfield. Hopefully, that would mean Briggs, Urlacher, and Wright for Jermichael Finley, Driver in the slot, and Rodgers outside the pocket, with Chris Conte as the single high safety. You're not going to stop all the weapons that GB has, but with Jennings out, the Bears may be able to take away the outside somewhat and make the Packers put all their eggs in the Finley basket. The Bears have enough offense now to beat the Packers even if Finley dominates, provided they can limit the outside WRs.
In the NFL's oldest rivalry, there aren't many secrets. But I feel that the Bears have more that the Packers haven't seen than vice versa. The Bears had very little turnover on their roster, yet the Packers have never seen Carimi, Marshall, Jeffery, even Chris Conte (who was not a starter Week 3 and missed Week 16's game) suited up for the Bears. It's always difficult to win a road game within the division. Even tougher when it's a primetime game. But I think the Bears can again rattle Rodgers a little, while being able to counterpunch now on offense, and I truly feel the Bears will come out of Lambeau with a W.
I'm probably way more confident about this game than I should be. After all, the Packers have pretty much dominated the Bears since their previous QB retired....came back...retired again....came back with another team.....retired......came back again with another team.....retired....came back...and then was knocked into retirement for good. But while Aaron Rodgers is 7-2 vs. the Bears, he's never put up quite the numbers against them as he has against other teams. And this isn't your father's Chicago Bears team.
The Packers have frankly, had their way with the Bears WRs in the past by being physical. I know this has been touched on in the media this week, but the Packers were truly able to push Johnny Knox and Devin Hester around as the 1-2 WRs on the outside. Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Charles Woodson were able to fight through Knox and Hester to break up slant patterns, they were able press them down the field and out muscle them for the ball for either an INT or an incompletion. Already, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have shown that they are not Johnny Knox on the outside. If you look back on the 3rd preseason game vs. the Giants, Jay Cutler threw to both Marshall and Jeffery on separate occasions when they were completely covered by CB, Michael Coe. Both times, Coe jumped the route for what would have been possible pick 6's last year...but both plays resulted in completed passes as Marshall and Jeffery refused to be out muscled for the ball. Now, the Packers have Sam Shields coming off the bench, with Charles Woodson at SS. Jarrett Bush is starting at CB opposite of Williams, and he should be a safety also. The 31st ranked pass defense has gotten worse, in my opinion, and the Bears passing game has gotten remarkably better in a single offseason. Not only that, but the Packers have yet to face Gabe Carimi. Carimi was lost for the season, before last year's Week 3 matchup. This is significant because Carimi will be facing off with the Packers' lone pass rusher in their front 7, Clay Matthews. Not that I expect Gabe to completely handle Matthews, but it should be a monumental improvement over Frank Omiyale (aka Frank OMG) and Lance Louis playing out of position at RT. I now welcome the blitz from Woodson, as now Cutler should be able to make the hot read without a CB being able to jump the route. The Packers would be best served by throwing out any game tape they have on the Bears the last 3 years, because it's not going to do them any good this year.
As for the defense, the Bears definitely have some work to do compared to past seasons. The possibility of Greg Jennings being out obviously works in the Bears favor. However, I was looking forward to seeing if the Week 1 version of Tim Jennings could carry over into Lambeau vs. Greg Jennings. Tim got basically eaten alive by Greg in a couple games the last 2 years, and was bench for the Week 16 game vs. GB last year. Because of that, I expect Tim Jennings to really show up tomorrow (whether he faces Jennings or James Jones) and have another productive game. If Jennings is out, that also puts either Charles Tillman (if he plays) or Kelvin Hayden on Jordy Nelson, another matchup that I really like. Nelson hasn't done very much against the Bears other than Week 16 when he saw a lot of Zach Bowman, who isn't very good. So, to me, the key matchups will be in the middle of the field. I like DJ Moore vs. Donald Driver in the slot, and about 50x more than I like Moore vs. Jennings when he lines up in the slot as he often does in the 3-4wide set. But the Bears have never been able to defend Jermichael Finley. This year probably won't be any different. Another issue for the defense may also be Randall Cobb. Cobb was essentially used as the Packers 3rd down RB vs. SF last week and had a pretty good game getting matched up on some really good LBs for the Niners. The Bears LBs are great, but not as fast as they once were and not as fast as the 49ers group. If Greg Jennings is out, this would allow the Bears to put Tim Jennings on one side with Tillman/Hayden on the other. I like both of those matchups for the Bears. It would also put Driver as the primary slot WR. I think Driver's lack of speed would allow the Bears to use DJ Moore exclusively to spy on Cobb out of the backfield. Hopefully, that would mean Briggs, Urlacher, and Wright for Jermichael Finley, Driver in the slot, and Rodgers outside the pocket, with Chris Conte as the single high safety. You're not going to stop all the weapons that GB has, but with Jennings out, the Bears may be able to take away the outside somewhat and make the Packers put all their eggs in the Finley basket. The Bears have enough offense now to beat the Packers even if Finley dominates, provided they can limit the outside WRs.
In the NFL's oldest rivalry, there aren't many secrets. But I feel that the Bears have more that the Packers haven't seen than vice versa. The Bears had very little turnover on their roster, yet the Packers have never seen Carimi, Marshall, Jeffery, even Chris Conte (who was not a starter Week 3 and missed Week 16's game) suited up for the Bears. It's always difficult to win a road game within the division. Even tougher when it's a primetime game. But I think the Bears can again rattle Rodgers a little, while being able to counterpunch now on offense, and I truly feel the Bears will come out of Lambeau with a W.
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Week 1: Colts vs. Bears, Game Preview
Every week, I'll give my game preview and keys to the game. This is not going to be your run-of-the mill, NFL pre-game show stuff that you can see on FOX or NFL Network, done with very little research. I'll hopefully be able to add some insight into areas of the game that the average person/fan doesn't really think about.
For the Colts game, I'll be honest here.....I'd be pretty disappointed if the Bears don't have their way in this game. The Colts have nothing going for them other than the fact they have one of the best QB prospects on their roster since the former starting QB on their roster was a prospect. The Colts won 2 games last year, none until Week 15. They'll win more and sooner than that this year, but it shouldn't be Week 1. My keys to the game:
1. BIG BOY FOOTBALL. The Bears really need to bully this team. The Colts are in their 1st year of the 3-4 defense, and while some teams have had success while changing schemes, the Colts have almost none of the pieces in place to make this scheme successful. Mathis is a 245lb OLB, the interior LBs are 234 and 243 respectively....all 3 guys are smaller than Bears RB, Michael Bush. Their "big" LB is Dwight Freeney listed at 268lbs, but he's a 4-3 DE, never having stood up before in his career. Mathis and Freeney have always been known for their pass rush ability, but their ability to stop the run has never been a strong suit for them. Nose tackle, Antonio Johnson, is also only 310lbs and his scouting report reads his strengths as explosion and quickness, with his weaknesses being strength and ability to get off blocks when engaged....the exact opposite of what you want out of your 3-4 anchor in the middle. Now, the Bears strong suit isn't really running the ball up the gut, but in this game, I think they will have success in the tackle box moreso than the outside with the speed the Colts have.
2. Remember the Superbowl. Every Bears fan remembers the first play of SB XLI. Devin Hester takes the opening kickoff 92 yards for an opening TD. Well, it hasn't gotten much better for the Colts since then. Indianapolis has finished 5 of the last 6 seasons as one of the 5 worst kickoff coverage teams (yards per return), and they aren't much better on punt returns, never finishing better than middle of the pack in the NFL. And with 11 rookies and a lot of roster turnover, they don't appear to be much of a match for the best special teams in the business. If the Bears don't take a kick back, I look for a couple really strong returns setting the Bears up on a short field.
3. Not your typical rookie QB. The Bears have typically faired pretty well against rookie QBs, especially ones without a lot of weapons to play with. But admittedly, Andrew Luck is not your typical rookie. The Bears won't be able to get away with just playing Cover 2 all game, because Luck is smart enough to pick that apart. And contrary to popular belief, the Bears are not nearly an exclusive Cover 2 team, playing in that coverage less than 50% of the defensive snaps. However, the Bears also won't be able to blitz Luck all day long, simply because of his inexperience. The key will be mixing it up. Going to have to give Luck a lot of different pre-snap reads, and will have to change out of those looks at the snap. You can blitz him, but gotta disguise it, hoping he makes the wrong hot read and makes a mistake. I don't think you have to worry too much about the deep ball, because the Colts don't have a ton of deep speed and I don't think that OL can block the Bears front long enough to hit a bomb. Wayne isn't fast enough anymore to force the Bears to keep the FS over top at all times like a few years ago. I think Jennings can run with him in man most of the game. Tillman can be more physical on the bigger, less shifty, Austin Collie on the other side. This should help free up the safeties and LBs to cover the middle of the field with the RBs, TEs, and slot WRs where I think Luck will look to have most of his success. But I also don't think you can let Luck move the ball down the field with Aaron Rodgers-like precision. Switching up the looks on D will not allow Luck to get comfortable in the pocket, and at Stanford, he struggled a little when forced to move around.
4. One at a time. Now this is one that mainstream media may touch on, but I had to do so also. This is a strange season as the Bears have to travel to Lambeau on a short week this early in the year. The Bears are naturally going to be accused of "looking ahead" if they don't dominate like I described in my first point. My biggest worry with looking ahead is that the Bears get too concerned about what they put out there on tape for Green Bay. For the most part, the Bears and Packers know what each other is going to try to do. They've played several times under the current head coaches. But I do worry that Mike Tice won't want to show his entire offensive repertoire in his first year as Bears OC. While the Bears should be able to beat the Colts with a vanilla gameplan, they shouldn't get caught up in that because of the Packers looming. Run your offense and force the 31st ranked pass defense from a year ago to stop it with 3 days to prepare.
For the Colts game, I'll be honest here.....I'd be pretty disappointed if the Bears don't have their way in this game. The Colts have nothing going for them other than the fact they have one of the best QB prospects on their roster since the former starting QB on their roster was a prospect. The Colts won 2 games last year, none until Week 15. They'll win more and sooner than that this year, but it shouldn't be Week 1. My keys to the game:
1. BIG BOY FOOTBALL. The Bears really need to bully this team. The Colts are in their 1st year of the 3-4 defense, and while some teams have had success while changing schemes, the Colts have almost none of the pieces in place to make this scheme successful. Mathis is a 245lb OLB, the interior LBs are 234 and 243 respectively....all 3 guys are smaller than Bears RB, Michael Bush. Their "big" LB is Dwight Freeney listed at 268lbs, but he's a 4-3 DE, never having stood up before in his career. Mathis and Freeney have always been known for their pass rush ability, but their ability to stop the run has never been a strong suit for them. Nose tackle, Antonio Johnson, is also only 310lbs and his scouting report reads his strengths as explosion and quickness, with his weaknesses being strength and ability to get off blocks when engaged....the exact opposite of what you want out of your 3-4 anchor in the middle. Now, the Bears strong suit isn't really running the ball up the gut, but in this game, I think they will have success in the tackle box moreso than the outside with the speed the Colts have.
2. Remember the Superbowl. Every Bears fan remembers the first play of SB XLI. Devin Hester takes the opening kickoff 92 yards for an opening TD. Well, it hasn't gotten much better for the Colts since then. Indianapolis has finished 5 of the last 6 seasons as one of the 5 worst kickoff coverage teams (yards per return), and they aren't much better on punt returns, never finishing better than middle of the pack in the NFL. And with 11 rookies and a lot of roster turnover, they don't appear to be much of a match for the best special teams in the business. If the Bears don't take a kick back, I look for a couple really strong returns setting the Bears up on a short field.
3. Not your typical rookie QB. The Bears have typically faired pretty well against rookie QBs, especially ones without a lot of weapons to play with. But admittedly, Andrew Luck is not your typical rookie. The Bears won't be able to get away with just playing Cover 2 all game, because Luck is smart enough to pick that apart. And contrary to popular belief, the Bears are not nearly an exclusive Cover 2 team, playing in that coverage less than 50% of the defensive snaps. However, the Bears also won't be able to blitz Luck all day long, simply because of his inexperience. The key will be mixing it up. Going to have to give Luck a lot of different pre-snap reads, and will have to change out of those looks at the snap. You can blitz him, but gotta disguise it, hoping he makes the wrong hot read and makes a mistake. I don't think you have to worry too much about the deep ball, because the Colts don't have a ton of deep speed and I don't think that OL can block the Bears front long enough to hit a bomb. Wayne isn't fast enough anymore to force the Bears to keep the FS over top at all times like a few years ago. I think Jennings can run with him in man most of the game. Tillman can be more physical on the bigger, less shifty, Austin Collie on the other side. This should help free up the safeties and LBs to cover the middle of the field with the RBs, TEs, and slot WRs where I think Luck will look to have most of his success. But I also don't think you can let Luck move the ball down the field with Aaron Rodgers-like precision. Switching up the looks on D will not allow Luck to get comfortable in the pocket, and at Stanford, he struggled a little when forced to move around.
4. One at a time. Now this is one that mainstream media may touch on, but I had to do so also. This is a strange season as the Bears have to travel to Lambeau on a short week this early in the year. The Bears are naturally going to be accused of "looking ahead" if they don't dominate like I described in my first point. My biggest worry with looking ahead is that the Bears get too concerned about what they put out there on tape for Green Bay. For the most part, the Bears and Packers know what each other is going to try to do. They've played several times under the current head coaches. But I do worry that Mike Tice won't want to show his entire offensive repertoire in his first year as Bears OC. While the Bears should be able to beat the Colts with a vanilla gameplan, they shouldn't get caught up in that because of the Packers looming. Run your offense and force the 31st ranked pass defense from a year ago to stop it with 3 days to prepare.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
53-man roster analysis
QB (2)- Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell.
It's a little risky going into the season with only 2 QBs, especially with questions on the O-line, but this was the right move to get an extra body on the roster, since the Bears have a few injuries and have to carry 2 punters. If your 3rd QB has to play, it's probably a lost season anyway. My 53 had McCown getting cut, being able to keep Blanchard on the practice squad makes the situation fine.
RB (3)- Matt Forte, Michael Bush,Lorenzo Booker, Armando Allen.
Bears only kept 3 RBs last year with Forte, Barber and Bell...with Allen in waiting on the practice squad. Forte is seen as an injury risk, but last year was the first time he's missed a game in his 4-year career...every other RB in the league missed games over that span. He and Bush are as reliable as can be in the backfield. Allen will be in the waiting again, and maybe not too long. Podlesh will likely play Week 1, with Booker out. Allowing the Bears to cut Quigley and put Allen in his spot as the #3 RB. Apparently, Booker suffered a pretty bad concussion and was just put on IR, Allen was promoted to the 53-man roster to take his place.
WR (6)- Brandon Marshall, Devin Hester, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, Eric Weems, Dane Sanzenbacher.
No surprises here. Best group of WRs in Chicago Bears history. I expect record breaking numbers for Marshall, with possible career highs in catches/yards for Hester and/or Bennett, with BM taking most of the attention.
TE/FB (4)- Kellen Davis, Matt Spaeth, Evan Rodriguez, Kyle Adams.
Surprised Tyler Clutts is not in this group, but there was only going to be 4 regardless. Thought Spaeth would be the odd man out, but he is the only decent blocker of this group. Rodriguez is listed at FB, but the Bears are basically going without this year. Hopefully, this move pans out.
OL (8)- J'Marcus Webb, Chris Spencer, Roberto Garza, Lance Louis, Gabe Carimi, Chris Williams, Chilo Rachal, Edwin Williams.
If the same 5 start all 16 games this year, the Bears will be an elite team. I honestly don't expect this group of 8 to even be the same at the trade deadline. The Bears will probably need to add a body here. Whether thru trade or on the waiver wire. Brown and Brandon are on the p-squad, but neither is ready. This group isn't attractive, but they just need to play just pretty enough to win games.
DL (9)- Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije, Stephen Paea, Henry Melton, Amobi Okoye, Matt Toeina, Shea McClellin, Corey Wootton, Cheta Ozougwu. Nate Collins (1-week suspension).
I think this is the key group. Gotta get Peppers some help this year. Idonije was a monster in preseason, dominating the Skins and being held (no calls though) all night vs. the Giants. Melton has to be more consistent. Paea has to stay on the field. At least 1 of the backup edge rushers need to provide something. A 3rd or 4th edge rusher would help the DT position as Idonije or Peppers could move inside on passing downs making that group stronger. This group will be 9 to start, and I think 10 when Collins is activated for Week 2.
LB (7)- Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nick Roach, Geno Hayes, Blake Costanzo, JT Thomas,Patrick Trahan.
This group is as strong as usual. Urlacher and Briggs together for the 10th straight year. Roach is going into his 4th year as a starter, which doesn't include 2010 when he started a couple games for Pisa Tinoisamoa. The backups all looked pretty solid in preseason, though Trahan may be the odd man out when Collins is activated. Did I say 53-man roster? I meant 52. Patrick Trahan also cut today, not yet filling his spot. Nate Collins needs a spot for next week, but even if he takes it, Ryan Quigley isn't long for this team, so look for a possible roster pickup in the next few days.
DB (10)- Charles Tillman, Chris Conte, Major Wright, Tim Jennings, Kelvin Hayden, Craig Steltz, DJ Moore, Anthony Walters, Jeremy Jones, Sherrick McManis.
CBs are basically the same as last year. Hayden instead of Zach Bowman, McManis instead of Corey Graham. Hayden is a clear upgrade. Question is can Peanut Tillman still hang in there at CB? The questions at S continue, but Wright and Conte were the most used starting safety combo in 2011. This could be a strong position if the 2 recent 3rd round picks stay healthy and live up to their hype. Steltz is very experienced depth. 5th CB and 4th S could be issues, but the hope is it never gets to that.
Specialists (4)- Robbie Gould, Adam Podlesh, Patrick Mannelly, Ryan Quigley.
Again, Quigley may be gone by tomorrow with Podlesh listed as probable. But I believe this is the best group in the NFL. Gould is the 5th most accurate kicker in NFL history, and plays home games on a terrible field. Podlesh is a top 7 punter in the game. And Mr. Bear, Patrick Mannelly is back for his 15th season as long-snapper.
Overall, a pretty strong roster. Maybe the best Bears team on paper since 1986. This team has no Tommie Harris or Mike Brown like the 2006 Superbowl team had, but that team did not have Cutler and Marshall.
It's a little risky going into the season with only 2 QBs, especially with questions on the O-line, but this was the right move to get an extra body on the roster, since the Bears have a few injuries and have to carry 2 punters. If your 3rd QB has to play, it's probably a lost season anyway. My 53 had McCown getting cut, being able to keep Blanchard on the practice squad makes the situation fine.
RB (3)- Matt Forte, Michael Bush,
Bears only kept 3 RBs last year with Forte, Barber and Bell...with Allen in waiting on the practice squad. Forte is seen as an injury risk, but last year was the first time he's missed a game in his 4-year career...every other RB in the league missed games over that span. He and Bush are as reliable as can be in the backfield. Allen will be in the waiting again, and maybe not too long. Podlesh will likely play Week 1, with Booker out. Allowing the Bears to cut Quigley and put Allen in his spot as the #3 RB. Apparently, Booker suffered a pretty bad concussion and was just put on IR, Allen was promoted to the 53-man roster to take his place.
WR (6)- Brandon Marshall, Devin Hester, Alshon Jeffery, Earl Bennett, Eric Weems, Dane Sanzenbacher.
No surprises here. Best group of WRs in Chicago Bears history. I expect record breaking numbers for Marshall, with possible career highs in catches/yards for Hester and/or Bennett, with BM taking most of the attention.
TE/FB (4)- Kellen Davis, Matt Spaeth, Evan Rodriguez, Kyle Adams.
Surprised Tyler Clutts is not in this group, but there was only going to be 4 regardless. Thought Spaeth would be the odd man out, but he is the only decent blocker of this group. Rodriguez is listed at FB, but the Bears are basically going without this year. Hopefully, this move pans out.
OL (8)- J'Marcus Webb, Chris Spencer, Roberto Garza, Lance Louis, Gabe Carimi, Chris Williams, Chilo Rachal, Edwin Williams.
If the same 5 start all 16 games this year, the Bears will be an elite team. I honestly don't expect this group of 8 to even be the same at the trade deadline. The Bears will probably need to add a body here. Whether thru trade or on the waiver wire. Brown and Brandon are on the p-squad, but neither is ready. This group isn't attractive, but they just need to play just pretty enough to win games.
DL (9)- Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije, Stephen Paea, Henry Melton, Amobi Okoye, Matt Toeina, Shea McClellin, Corey Wootton, Cheta Ozougwu. Nate Collins (1-week suspension).
I think this is the key group. Gotta get Peppers some help this year. Idonije was a monster in preseason, dominating the Skins and being held (no calls though) all night vs. the Giants. Melton has to be more consistent. Paea has to stay on the field. At least 1 of the backup edge rushers need to provide something. A 3rd or 4th edge rusher would help the DT position as Idonije or Peppers could move inside on passing downs making that group stronger. This group will be 9 to start, and I think 10 when Collins is activated for Week 2.
LB (7)- Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nick Roach, Geno Hayes, Blake Costanzo, JT Thomas,
This group is as strong as usual. Urlacher and Briggs together for the 10th straight year. Roach is going into his 4th year as a starter, which doesn't include 2010 when he started a couple games for Pisa Tinoisamoa. The backups all looked pretty solid in preseason, though Trahan may be the odd man out when Collins is activated. Did I say 53-man roster? I meant 52. Patrick Trahan also cut today, not yet filling his spot. Nate Collins needs a spot for next week, but even if he takes it, Ryan Quigley isn't long for this team, so look for a possible roster pickup in the next few days.
DB (10)- Charles Tillman, Chris Conte, Major Wright, Tim Jennings, Kelvin Hayden, Craig Steltz, DJ Moore, Anthony Walters, Jeremy Jones, Sherrick McManis.
CBs are basically the same as last year. Hayden instead of Zach Bowman, McManis instead of Corey Graham. Hayden is a clear upgrade. Question is can Peanut Tillman still hang in there at CB? The questions at S continue, but Wright and Conte were the most used starting safety combo in 2011. This could be a strong position if the 2 recent 3rd round picks stay healthy and live up to their hype. Steltz is very experienced depth. 5th CB and 4th S could be issues, but the hope is it never gets to that.
Specialists (4)- Robbie Gould, Adam Podlesh, Patrick Mannelly, Ryan Quigley.
Again, Quigley may be gone by tomorrow with Podlesh listed as probable. But I believe this is the best group in the NFL. Gould is the 5th most accurate kicker in NFL history, and plays home games on a terrible field. Podlesh is a top 7 punter in the game. And Mr. Bear, Patrick Mannelly is back for his 15th season as long-snapper.
Overall, a pretty strong roster. Maybe the best Bears team on paper since 1986. This team has no Tommie Harris or Mike Brown like the 2006 Superbowl team had, but that team did not have Cutler and Marshall.
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