Week 17: BEARS @ Lions, Game Preview

Well, it all comes down to this.  The Bears need to win this week and get help from none other than the Green Bay Packers in order to continue their season.  A win over the Detroit Lions means 1 of 2 things for the Bears, either they will make the playoffs as the 6th seed OR they will be a rare 10-win team that misses the playoffs and will have the worst draft slot (20th) of all the teams who went nowhere.  A loss and the season is over and they likely pick 19th, which isn't much better.  So, a win and a Vikings loss is the ideal outcome for plenty of reasons.

The Arizona game was.....well, frankly...pretty boring.   The defense played very well.  They completely stopped the run....of the worst rushing team in the league.  They only allowed 219 yards passing, picked off 2 passes, and got a solid 4 sacks....against the 3rd and 4th string QBs of the team with the league's 4th worst passing game.  So, while it was nice to see the defense get back to scoring off of turnovers like they were in the first half of the season, it was against another bad offense.  But with 2 starters missing and another (Conte) missing half the game, I'll take that performance any week. 

Offensively, the Bears were better than the Cardinals, but that's nothing to write home about.  And honestly, that game wasn't really enough to inspire any confidence in me that even if the Bears do manage to get into the playoffs, that they actually compete well enough to win a game (or two) once they get there.  Under 300 yards of total offense.  But on the positive side, the OL perhaps played their best game of the season.  The Bears were able to run the ball well when it still mattered.  Cutler saw very little pressure all day with the only sack coming outside of the pocket, on a play where he should have thrown the ball away.  But despite the time, Cutler was off-target most of the time when he threw the ball.  And again there were a couple drops, though this time Brandon Marshall was the main culprit, which isn't much to worry about.  Special teams were a disaster with a couple near blocked punts, a blocked FG for TD, and Hester's taking of a punt inside his 5, returning it near the 15 and then back inside the 5, as 2 penalties were committed in front of him.  But again, that's not a huge concern as like Marshall, you expect the special teams to perform when they need to.  The concern has been and continues to be, the offensive offense.

Along comes the Detroit Lions.  While the Lions are about average overall defensively (middle of the pack in run D, pass D, sacks), they are bottom 5 in the NFL with 27.4 points allowed per game. Cutler and Forte have also both had very productive careers vs. the Lions.  Jay has had  a career 101 QB rating, with an 11-1 TD-INT ratio and Matt has 120 yards from scrimmage per game against them.  So, if the Bears are going to get it going.....ah screw it.  Seventeen weeks into the season, the offense isn't going to get it going.  At this point, if the Bears are going to do anything this season...it's going to have to be the 2011 49ers formula of stopping teams on defense, forcing turnovers, and protecting the ball on offense.  The Lions are definitely a team that strategy could work on.  Odds are Matthew Stafford, who has thrown 70 more passes than anyone in the league will put the ball in the air over 50 times on Sunday.  That will give the Bears plenty of shots to create a turnover and take the ball the other way.  And while Tillman did a masterful job on Calvin Johnson earlier in the season, the Lions will do everything in their power to get him to 2000 yards receiving, as they have nothing else to play for.  I expect they will take plenty of shots deep, especially since the Bears will have an inexperienced Anthony Walters playing deep at FS.  The Bears are going to have to get pressure up front, with the return of Henry Melton and the resurgence of Julius Peppers.  If the Lions drop back 50 times, the Bears need to have 5 sacks.  I'd also like to see pressure on Stafford at least 30% of the time.  So 15 times in 50 dropbacks, he needs to get hit or have a guy in his face.  Offensively, I really like what I've seen from the hurry up offense from the Bears.  While, they don't "hurry" as much as I like, they move the ball very well when they are up-tempo.  I don't expect to see a ton of it this week as you want to keep the Lions offense off the field, but I'd love to see the Bears go no-huddle after 3-and-outs or very short drives in order to move the ball more consistently. 

Last time the Bears were in this situation in Week 17, they lost at Houston, as the league's best WR at that time (Andre Johnson) had a field day against the Bears secondary.  I'm hoping history doesn't repeat itself, and honestly, it shouldn't as Calvin is really good, but his team isn't.  The Bears are going to be in for a hard-fought game from their division rivals, but they should be able to pull out a W.  From there, it's on to the lockerroom to watch the Packers v. Vikings.  If all goes right, my next post will be a game preview.  If not, looks like it's draft season.  I love the draft, but......GO BEARS!