Week 3: CHICAGO BEARS at Pittsburgh Steelers

Here it is!  The week circled on my calendar.  The Chicago boy trapped in Pittsburgh, gets a chance to watch his team take on Steelers and trash talk all his co-workers and Facebook friends!  With apologies to my co-blogger, this matchup could not only give me bragging rights around the water cooler at work, but also put the Steelers out of their misery by putting them in an insurmountable hole with an 0-3 start (though, this might be preferred with a draftnik to have early picks to play with).

Despite the early returns (Bears w/ 2 close wins vs. 2012 playoff teams, only the lowly Jags saving the Steelers from the offensive basement), this isn't going to be a game the Bears are going to win just by showing up.  Lost in all the talk of Mr. Fourth Quarter, Jay Cutler, and the Bears winning exciting games late is the fact that the defense hasn't been nearly as good as it needs to be so far.  While the Bears haven't skipped a beat in forcing the other team to turn the ball over and are middle of the pack in yardage allowed, they are the league's worst defense at getting off the field on 3rd downs so far.  And 2 of the 13 times they have succeeded at stopping 3rd down, they've allowed 4th down conversions.  The lack of success getting off the field can be directly attributed to a severe lack of a consistent pass rush. 

This is the week the Bears have to get off the field and do so by putting pressure on Ben Roethlisberger.  Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in converting 3rd downs on offense.  Their offensive line, frankly, looks a lot like the O-lines Bears fans saw for much of the last 5 years.  The Steelers' best OL is out for the season, and they have allowed tons of pressure this year and most of recent history.  Without Pouncey, the Bears SHOULD be able to get pressure up the middle and on the edge where a couple young guys are struggling (Adams and DeCastro) to protect the pocket.  Fittingly, those struggling linemen should be lined up directly across from Julius Peppers and Henry Melton, respectively, the Bears best and highest-paid defensive linemen, who have been almost non-existent so far in the early-going.  If there was ever a game the 2 stars of the D-Line (who basically had no preseason) to get going, it is this one with huge matchup advantages. 

Even if the Bears do get pressure on Roethlisberger, they have been killed in the past by not keeping contain on a mobile QB.  Russell Wilson basically took the Bears out of playoff contention last year by getting to the outside and either picking up key yardage with his legs or finding open receivers who got lost in coverage.  Just last week, Christian Ponder was able to do some of the same things, but to a much lesser extent.  While running isn't a concern with Big Ben, the latter is how he makes is money.  The Bears can't allow Ben to break free from pressure and find his quick WRs after being well-covered for 4-5 seconds.  I don't expect the Steelers to be able to run much on the Bears D.  They have been the worst run team in the NFL against 2 lesser run defenses so far.  But that run game could get a huge boost if TE, Heath Miller and RB Le'Veon Bell, who both practiced fully today, are able to go.  The addition of Miller in particular could give Roethlisberger some added comfort, though James Anderson has been masterful covering opposing TEs so far. 

Offensively, I expect more struggles than the first 2 weeks.  The offensive line will get a different look this week vs. a 3-4 defense and an array of exotic blitzes.  On early downs, the Steelers will gamble with run blitzes making it tough for Forte to find a hole.  If they are able to force 3rd and longs, the Steelers will send any and everybody, sometimes having no down linemen with 6-7 possible blitzers making it tough for the OL (especially a rookie right side) to read who's coming.  And of course, you always gotta know where #43 is.

While the Bears did face and dominate a 3-4 Chargers defense in the 2nd preseason game, the Steelers scheme is a completely different, more aggressive animal.  That being said, I'd expect the Bears to go back to a little of that playbook this week.  The big play was a 51 yard Forte run on a sweep led by a pulling tackle.  They will also run a lot of zone blocking, which I think could work better this week as both Bears guards really have done a great job when getting to the LB level.  That should be easier to do this week without a gap shooting DT in front of them and the LBs looking to fill.  Look for the Bears to run out of several passing formations.  The Bears showed a quick dive/draw out of the shotgun w/single back.  The Bears went 3 wide and motioned a TE or FB in to lead off tackle, mostly with counter action.  The formation that really caught my eye last week was flexing Bennett out a couple yards away from the line.  Bennett struggled in week 1 blocking Cincy's DEs, and has looked much better when matched on a linebacker.  Flexing him forces a LB or safety out of the tackle box, but also allows him to come in with a crack-back block to wall off a defender on an outside run.  The defender covering Bennett then either gets caught up in the interior traffic, blocked on the outside by a pulling lineman, or has to make a 1-on-1 open field tackle on Forte.  

When the Bears go to the air, they have to again know where #43 is.  He will freelance on blitzes with the Steelers hopeful Cutler will make a poor decision on the fly.  But also, Ike Taylor did a great job on AJ Green last week.  He will get Brandon Marshall on every snap that he's lined up on the outside of the formation....as he did when they faced off a couple years ago when Marshall was in Miami.  While there's no chance Cutler will shy away from throwing to Marshall, I expect a lot of short quick throws to get him the ball on the outside.  If they want to set up a big play, that's when they move Marshall down into the slot and hope Taylor doesn't follow.  Taylor on Marshall, though, means Alshon Jeffery has a mismatch vs. the other Steelers CB.  I wouldn't be surprised if Alshon is the leading receiver this week.  Steelers will focus on checkdowns to Forte, and Bennett's big Week 2 will get him a little extra attention this week. 

The Bears should have a huge special teams advantage.  Better kicker, punter, and returner.  If Hester is allowed to touch the ball several times like last week, he will make a couple huge plays again.  Tough place to play for your first road game, with exotic blitzes, rookie linemen, and against a team desperate to save their season.  But the Bears win this game if they protect the football.  The Steelers shouldn't be able to score enough points against what should be a good defense.  But the Bears shouldn't expect 30 again like last week.  The key is to not give them any help.  Minnesota got 14 non-offensive points last week, and another 3 on fumble on their side of the field.  With the Bears having a clear edge on offense and special teams, the only way the Steelers win is if their defense gets them points.