Well, Sunday Night was a disaster. Lost a game, lost a quarterback, lost in my fantasy league due to Matt Forte and Robbie Gould's inability to get me 4 more points. But a 7-2 record is still pretty good (6-4 in this fantasy league after 3 straight single digits losses, if you care). Actually it's still better than every team in the NFL except the Falcons and Texans.
About those Texans...on the positive side, I feel like the Bears outplayed the Texans. They couldn't run the ball at all and turned the ball over way more than anyone would have liked, but Sunday surely didn't prove that the Bears can't hang with the NFLs elite teams. If the normally sure-handed Brandon Marshall and Forte make (difficult but make-able) catches, if the refs could correctly call a pass interference or review a replay that showed Cutler's back foot halfway behind the line of scrimmage, or if Kellen Davis didn't exist.....the Bears are an 8-1 team right now.
However, the Bears did lose and are facing another tough game, this time on the road, likely without starting QB, Jay Cutler. But on a positive note, the Bears shouldn't have to do much differently, as far as game planning goes for this week. Like the Texans, the 49ers are a run-heavy offense that relies on time of possession, though they're not as strong as Houston in that area. Like the Texans, the Niners rely very heavily on throwing the ball to their #1 WR and the TE, though they use their #2 (Manningham) more than Houston. Like the Texans, San Francisco uses a 3-4 defense to keep opponents off the board. They also are very strong against the run and have a dynamic pass rushing talent that the Bears have to keep track of at all times. But unlike Houston, the Niners are actually much more than an "efficient" running team. SF actually has been gashing team's run defenses to the tune of a league leading 5.6 yards per carry. Frank Gore is having the best season since he was a 23-year old, first time starting RB in his 2nd year in the NFL. That being said, they have not faced a run defense like the Bears this season. So, I believe that if they are going to run, it's going to have to be like the Texans' formula to run the ball 30+ times and expect less than 4 yards a pop.
As for the passing game, I have no qualms about Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings being able to almost shutdown Crabtree and Manningham on the outside. I do worry a lot about Vernon Davis and still have flashbacks of Randy Moss running thru the Bears secondary wearing a purple jersey. But Moss's effect should be minimal and Davis hasn't exactly been very dominant so far this year. So, I expect more of the same defense from last week, and all year really.
On offense, unfortunately, I'm also expecting more of the same. The Niners defense is basically a faster version of the Texans D. I don't expect the Bears patented sweeps with a pulling guard and center will work this week (didn't last week either). Though, I guess it is possible for the Bears to find similar minimal success off RG (Louis) that they did last week vs. Houston.
As for the passing game, the Bears did a lot of max protection against Houston's pass rush. Kept at least 1 TE and the RB in on almost all passing downs. As a result, Cutler had almost no pressure in the pocket all night. Of course, as luck would have it, he takes a huge (and very illegal) hit outside the pocket that leaves him questionable for this game. The downside of the max protection is that Mike Tice's play designs were frankly, terrible. On the majority of the plays, Forte was left in to block and stayed in to block. That left the #2 TE (Spaeth or Adams) as the checkdown target who leaked out of the backfield late. In fact, those check downs (Forte included) led to a whopping 8 yards on 6 catches between the 3 players. Unlike the Texans though, the Niners don't get anything from their D-line in the way of pass rush. The SF front 3 has combined for 1/2 a sack this year. Actually, Aldon Smith has 9.5 of the Niners 17 sacks as a team. So, honestly I'd like to see extra help given to whomever is lined up across from Smith. If that's Forte, it needs to be a solid chip and then get him out in a route. If that's a TE, Forte needs to be out in a route from the snap. The rest of the Niners haven't shown enough pass rush ability to give them too much attention. And at this point, the focus needs to be on moving the ball thru the air as well as possible. Getting Alshon Jeffery back should help immensely as, hopefully, it gives the Bears another target besides Brandon Marshall to throw to. While Brandon has been amazing this year and everything Bears fans could have hoped for, if a team can shut him down (the way GB did) the Bears cannot move the ball at all.
I honestly don't know what to expect in this game. Like last week, I don't expect these teams to rack up the yardage and big plays against each other. I do expect a few more points because of better weather, but maybe a 17-13 game instead of 13-6. But for some reason, I am very confident in the Bears in this game. Hester has seemed to get it going on special teams the last couple weeks, and I think he would have done a lot more damage on a non-disgusting field last weekend. I like the Bears edge in special teams. I love Cutler, but I'm interested to see Campbell play as he throws an excellent deep ball...which could be a big weapon in a game of evenly matched teams. I like the Bears to NOT turn the ball over 4 times, which has been the only way they have lost this year. And for whatever it is worth, I like the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on MNF under Lovie (just 1-6 on Sunday Nights). Most Bears fans were hoping for a split in these 2 games, it could still happen. It would put the Bears at 8-2 and in the driver's seat for a 1st round bye in the NFC.
This blog is solely used to provide both Steelers and Bears fans with a very realistic look at their teams upcoming possible draft picks.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Week 10, BEARS vs. Texans, Game Preview
Well, halfway thru the season and the Bears are in the midst of almost a best case scenario. 7-1 with the league's best point differential. But frankly, this is where the Bears should be with the schedule they've had. But the cupcakes are all done. The Bears don't face another team with a losing record right now until Week 16 in Arizona. And they open the 3rd quarter of the season with a tough, mirror image matchup vs. the Houston Texans.
A matchup I'm really looking forward to when the Texans have the ball is Charles "Peanut" Tillman vs. Andre Johnson. The last time these 2 teams met was Week 17, the 2008 Bears were 9-6 and needed a win in Houston to get into the playoffs. But Johnson, primarily covered by Tillman, went off for 10 catches, 148 yards and 2 TDs, including ripping a TD pass away from the Bears big, physical CB. But that was then, this is now. Johnson has been slowed down by injuries and isn't the best WR in the league the way he was in '08, but he's still pretty good. Tillman was pretty good then, but was not the potential defensive MVP back then either. Not that I'm expecting Peanut to force Johnson to fumble 4 times this game, but it should be a really good matchup with Tillman having won a similar matchup already this year vs. Calvin Johnson. If the Bears can come out on the right side of this matchup, the Texans don't have too much else to go to. Their 2nd WR is Kevin Walter, and even with the size advantage, I'll take Tim Jennings in that matchup, especially if Tillman can allow the Bears to give him safety help. The Texans get almost nothing else from any other WR, with only 8 catches from the rest of the WR depth chart. The key will be how the Bears handle the combo of FB-James Casey, and TEs Garrett Graham and Owen Daniels, who may just be Schaub's favorite target. Chris Conte looked very good in coverage against the Titans TEs, and if he can carry that over to Week 10, it's going to be tough for Houston to throw the ball against the Bears, especially down the field. Arian Foster has been a good receiver in the past, but hasn't done much out of the backfield so far in 2012.
Speaking of Foster.....for a team that is considered a pretty good running team, the Texans actually aren't anything special running the ball. While the Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards per game, they are only averaging a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry, good for 18th in the league. That's in the same class as teams like the Colts, Bengals and Lions. They also don't break a ton of big runs. Arian Foster only has 4 runs of 20+ yards, included in his league leading 192 total carries. In comparison, Forte has 3 runs over 20 in 109 carries. What Houston does do is hit you with volume in the run game. The Texans lead the league in time of possession. Because of all the 2-tight sets and sets they run with a FB, the Texans have been able to get teams to commit a lot of bodies into the box, creating playaction heaven for Schaub. The Bears, however, are the league's best team vs. the playaction, allowing just 45% completions after run fakes. This is mainly due to the discipline and quickness of the Bears LBs to react, and also the fact that the CBs and safeties don't have to be in a hurry to help the front 7 stop the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans have their own defensive POTY candidate, JJ Watt. An interesting matchup will be Gabe Carimi vs. Watt, in a battle of former Wisconsin teammates. Hopefully, Carimi learned a few things in practice on how to block Watt, because nobody else has been able to. And Carimi, honestly hasn't been able to hold off many pass rushers so far this year. But Carimi will mostly see Watt in the run game (lines up over the RT in run downs). In the passing game, Watt will see a lot of Lance Louis, as he typically lines up at more of a 4-3 DT in their nickel package. I kind of like this matchup. Louis will get pretty physical with him and won't be pushed back into the pocket the way Watt has done most of his opponents this year. The Bears will still have a lot of trouble, though, blocking the edge rush. And with the Texans being one of the toughest teams to run on, the quick passing game is going to be the Bears best hope for moving the ball. Jonathan Joseph is very beatable, especially when you're talking about Brandon Marshall on the opposite end. I also like Bennett vs. their nickel, Brice McCain, but that's going to require time to throw to fully utilize him.
Long story short, nobody's going to be lighting up the scoreboard Sunday night. The Bears offense has had it's struggles. The Houston offense is efficient, but doesn't have many weapons. They also don't make many mistakes allowing the Bears D to take advantage either. The key for the Bears is going to be to play mistake free football. None of the stupid false starts on the OL. Cutler has to protect that ball when he gets pressured, which he will often. And the Bears have to stay disciplined in their gap defense and in their run/pass keys during playaction situations. Where the Bears do have a huge advantage is special teams. Houston is middle of the pack in kickoff coverage, but have allowed the 2nd most KO returns in a touchback heavy era of football. They are also bottom 10 in punt return average allowed, and have not faced a returner like Devin Hester. So, in a game where all else looks to be pretty equal, the Bears ability to make a special teams play could be the difference in the game.
A matchup I'm really looking forward to when the Texans have the ball is Charles "Peanut" Tillman vs. Andre Johnson. The last time these 2 teams met was Week 17, the 2008 Bears were 9-6 and needed a win in Houston to get into the playoffs. But Johnson, primarily covered by Tillman, went off for 10 catches, 148 yards and 2 TDs, including ripping a TD pass away from the Bears big, physical CB. But that was then, this is now. Johnson has been slowed down by injuries and isn't the best WR in the league the way he was in '08, but he's still pretty good. Tillman was pretty good then, but was not the potential defensive MVP back then either. Not that I'm expecting Peanut to force Johnson to fumble 4 times this game, but it should be a really good matchup with Tillman having won a similar matchup already this year vs. Calvin Johnson. If the Bears can come out on the right side of this matchup, the Texans don't have too much else to go to. Their 2nd WR is Kevin Walter, and even with the size advantage, I'll take Tim Jennings in that matchup, especially if Tillman can allow the Bears to give him safety help. The Texans get almost nothing else from any other WR, with only 8 catches from the rest of the WR depth chart. The key will be how the Bears handle the combo of FB-James Casey, and TEs Garrett Graham and Owen Daniels, who may just be Schaub's favorite target. Chris Conte looked very good in coverage against the Titans TEs, and if he can carry that over to Week 10, it's going to be tough for Houston to throw the ball against the Bears, especially down the field. Arian Foster has been a good receiver in the past, but hasn't done much out of the backfield so far in 2012.
Speaking of Foster.....for a team that is considered a pretty good running team, the Texans actually aren't anything special running the ball. While the Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards per game, they are only averaging a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry, good for 18th in the league. That's in the same class as teams like the Colts, Bengals and Lions. They also don't break a ton of big runs. Arian Foster only has 4 runs of 20+ yards, included in his league leading 192 total carries. In comparison, Forte has 3 runs over 20 in 109 carries. What Houston does do is hit you with volume in the run game. The Texans lead the league in time of possession. Because of all the 2-tight sets and sets they run with a FB, the Texans have been able to get teams to commit a lot of bodies into the box, creating playaction heaven for Schaub. The Bears, however, are the league's best team vs. the playaction, allowing just 45% completions after run fakes. This is mainly due to the discipline and quickness of the Bears LBs to react, and also the fact that the CBs and safeties don't have to be in a hurry to help the front 7 stop the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans have their own defensive POTY candidate, JJ Watt. An interesting matchup will be Gabe Carimi vs. Watt, in a battle of former Wisconsin teammates. Hopefully, Carimi learned a few things in practice on how to block Watt, because nobody else has been able to. And Carimi, honestly hasn't been able to hold off many pass rushers so far this year. But Carimi will mostly see Watt in the run game (lines up over the RT in run downs). In the passing game, Watt will see a lot of Lance Louis, as he typically lines up at more of a 4-3 DT in their nickel package. I kind of like this matchup. Louis will get pretty physical with him and won't be pushed back into the pocket the way Watt has done most of his opponents this year. The Bears will still have a lot of trouble, though, blocking the edge rush. And with the Texans being one of the toughest teams to run on, the quick passing game is going to be the Bears best hope for moving the ball. Jonathan Joseph is very beatable, especially when you're talking about Brandon Marshall on the opposite end. I also like Bennett vs. their nickel, Brice McCain, but that's going to require time to throw to fully utilize him.
Long story short, nobody's going to be lighting up the scoreboard Sunday night. The Bears offense has had it's struggles. The Houston offense is efficient, but doesn't have many weapons. They also don't make many mistakes allowing the Bears D to take advantage either. The key for the Bears is going to be to play mistake free football. None of the stupid false starts on the OL. Cutler has to protect that ball when he gets pressured, which he will often. And the Bears have to stay disciplined in their gap defense and in their run/pass keys during playaction situations. Where the Bears do have a huge advantage is special teams. Houston is middle of the pack in kickoff coverage, but have allowed the 2nd most KO returns in a touchback heavy era of football. They are also bottom 10 in punt return average allowed, and have not faced a returner like Devin Hester. So, in a game where all else looks to be pretty equal, the Bears ability to make a special teams play could be the difference in the game.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Week 9, BEARS @ Titans, Game Preview
Well, last week I started off with talking about how good the defense has been....and they proceeded to give up over 400 yards of total offense to the struggling Panthers. So naturally, this week I'll start with how bad the offense has been.
Despite being a respectable 8th in the league in points scored, after this week's performance vs. Carolina, the Bears are now 26th in total offense. And while being the 6th least productive offense is bad enough, the Bears are that far down in the rankings despite being 9th in the league in rushing. Which means, the passing game has been really bad. Even worse, the passing game has been bad despite boasting the 3rd most productive WR in the NFL (and #1 in the NFC), Brandon Marshall. The offensive line that looked decent giving up 3 sacks in the 2 games before the bye, has given up 11 in the last two, including 6 in the 1st half Sunday when Carolina was trying. The Bears are now 2nd in the league in sacks allowed per game, after making it to respectability after the GB game.
But I don't want to put it all on the OL. The playcalling has been Martz-esque, the receivers have had drops, and frankly, the quarterback play hasn't been as good as it's needed to be. First off, Mike Tice has proven that he should not be anything more than an OL coach. Matt Forte isn't getting enough touches, despite getting 4.6 yards per carry. In addition, Michael Bush has only touched the ball 16 times in the last 3 games after being a vital part of the offense early on. There's been too many deep drops and when there is a quick throw, nobody other than Marshall can get open. Honestly though, the quick slant or out to Marshall been the best offense the Bears have had. But overall, Tice has called a very boring route tree, with very few wrinkles to get guys open. Marshall has been open based on pure talent, but guys like Hester and Bennett need some help. I'd like to see more rub routes, crossing routes, double moves, or something to get other guys open. The Bears are still very susceptible to a team that can execute the Packers gameplan to keep the ball away from Brandon Marshall. I'd also like to see more screens to Forte to slow down the pass rush. I'd like to see more of Hester in the slot, as he's clearly shown he's not much of an outside WR. He needs space, but cannot beat press coverage to save his life.
As for Cutler, you won't find a bigger fan of him than me. Love the guy. His 4th quarter vs. the Panthers was masterful and confident. In fact, he leads the league with a 132 QB rating in the 4th quarter, but he combats that by being worst in the league in the opening quarter. Jay needs to make a conscious effort to not let himself get taken out of his game early. I hate to feed into the Chicago media's BS, but he needs to be stronger mentally early in games. Cutler got sacked on the first play of the Colts game....throws pick 6 next drive, then the Bears have to spend a couple drives with short, quick passes to get Jay comfortable again. Got sacked on the 1st play again in Week 2, never really settled down in that game as when the offense was unleashed he threw INTs or got sacked in obvious passing downs. The Bears justifiably dumbed down the offense in the Detroit game with Cutler having injured ribs. But we saw the same thing happen on Sunday after 6 first half sacks. Not sure if it's on Cutler or Tice/Martz, but the last few years, when Jay has taken some hits or made mistakes with the ball, the playcalling has gone to near middle school levels for a drive or two afterward. While I understand the point of simplifying things, Jay Cutler is a good QB. If the Bears are going to throw quick slants and outs, they could have Jason Campbell out there. This is not to say I think the Bears should keep letting Jay take 7 step drops and get hit all day, but you gotta mix it up. Throw some quick slants early to set up the double move. Get the run game going to set up the playaction. Pass blocking isn't the only way to stop a pass rush. Giving them something else to think about besides getting after the QB is also a key. Don't wait until the OL proves they can't block the front 4 before you give them some help. Don't max protect leaving Marshall and 1 other target to get open vs. 7 pass defenders.
As for the game at hand, if there's a game the offense can snap out of it.....the Titans are REALLY bad on defense. That being said, they have played New England, Detroit, Houston, and Pittsburgh, along with getting San Diego and Minnesota when they were hot offensively. But they've also given up over 900 yards to the Bills and Colts the last 2 weeks. They've allowed teams to run the ball at will, they've allowed yards to WRs, TEs, RBs in the passing game. QBs have a whopping 105.8 passer rating against them. If the Bears can't get the offense going this week, it's going to have to wait even longer with Houston and San Francisco next on the schedule. Whereas I pointed out that the Panthers were not a team you could beat down the field (Cutler INT when he went deep, picked them apart when got rid of the ball quickly)...everything should be at the Bears disposal vs. the Titans.
On the other side of the ball, I actually do worry about the defense a little in this one. The Titans actually have a lot of weapons. Nate Washington has deep speed. Kenny Britt is a big target. Kendall Wright is an up-and-coming 1st round pick. I worry about the Bears matching up vs. whoever is in the slot and against the Titans TEs, led by Jared Cook. And the Bears have typically had trouble with speedy RBs, though they faced Chris Johnson as a rookie and gave up 8 yards on 14 carries. But if they aren't disciplined in their gap assignments in the front 7, you could see flashbacks of last year in Detroit when Jahvid Best got loose for a couple huge runs. Also, the Panthers showed that you can dump the ball down all game against the Bears D and force them to make tackles, which sometimes they don't do well. Hasselbeck has a history of being a patient QB that takes what the defense gives him if he doesn't get pressured. Hass has thrown 6 TDs with no INTs in his last 3 games vs. the Bears, though one of those was way back in 2007. So, obviously the key here is to stop the run first, force Tennessee into long passing downs, then getting pressure on Hasselbeck. Not much difference from any other game, but especially important against an elite RB and a 37-year old QB who has never done well vs. a strong pass rush.
I think you could see somewhat of a shootout in this game. If the pass rush doesn't show up, Hasselbeck can pick the D apart, especially in the 2-tight formation with Cook/Stevens. I do think the offense will finally score, and score enough to win this game and end the first half of the season at 7-1, but this is not a gimme game by any means.
Despite being a respectable 8th in the league in points scored, after this week's performance vs. Carolina, the Bears are now 26th in total offense. And while being the 6th least productive offense is bad enough, the Bears are that far down in the rankings despite being 9th in the league in rushing. Which means, the passing game has been really bad. Even worse, the passing game has been bad despite boasting the 3rd most productive WR in the NFL (and #1 in the NFC), Brandon Marshall. The offensive line that looked decent giving up 3 sacks in the 2 games before the bye, has given up 11 in the last two, including 6 in the 1st half Sunday when Carolina was trying. The Bears are now 2nd in the league in sacks allowed per game, after making it to respectability after the GB game.
But I don't want to put it all on the OL. The playcalling has been Martz-esque, the receivers have had drops, and frankly, the quarterback play hasn't been as good as it's needed to be. First off, Mike Tice has proven that he should not be anything more than an OL coach. Matt Forte isn't getting enough touches, despite getting 4.6 yards per carry. In addition, Michael Bush has only touched the ball 16 times in the last 3 games after being a vital part of the offense early on. There's been too many deep drops and when there is a quick throw, nobody other than Marshall can get open. Honestly though, the quick slant or out to Marshall been the best offense the Bears have had. But overall, Tice has called a very boring route tree, with very few wrinkles to get guys open. Marshall has been open based on pure talent, but guys like Hester and Bennett need some help. I'd like to see more rub routes, crossing routes, double moves, or something to get other guys open. The Bears are still very susceptible to a team that can execute the Packers gameplan to keep the ball away from Brandon Marshall. I'd also like to see more screens to Forte to slow down the pass rush. I'd like to see more of Hester in the slot, as he's clearly shown he's not much of an outside WR. He needs space, but cannot beat press coverage to save his life.
As for Cutler, you won't find a bigger fan of him than me. Love the guy. His 4th quarter vs. the Panthers was masterful and confident. In fact, he leads the league with a 132 QB rating in the 4th quarter, but he combats that by being worst in the league in the opening quarter. Jay needs to make a conscious effort to not let himself get taken out of his game early. I hate to feed into the Chicago media's BS, but he needs to be stronger mentally early in games. Cutler got sacked on the first play of the Colts game....throws pick 6 next drive, then the Bears have to spend a couple drives with short, quick passes to get Jay comfortable again. Got sacked on the 1st play again in Week 2, never really settled down in that game as when the offense was unleashed he threw INTs or got sacked in obvious passing downs. The Bears justifiably dumbed down the offense in the Detroit game with Cutler having injured ribs. But we saw the same thing happen on Sunday after 6 first half sacks. Not sure if it's on Cutler or Tice/Martz, but the last few years, when Jay has taken some hits or made mistakes with the ball, the playcalling has gone to near middle school levels for a drive or two afterward. While I understand the point of simplifying things, Jay Cutler is a good QB. If the Bears are going to throw quick slants and outs, they could have Jason Campbell out there. This is not to say I think the Bears should keep letting Jay take 7 step drops and get hit all day, but you gotta mix it up. Throw some quick slants early to set up the double move. Get the run game going to set up the playaction. Pass blocking isn't the only way to stop a pass rush. Giving them something else to think about besides getting after the QB is also a key. Don't wait until the OL proves they can't block the front 4 before you give them some help. Don't max protect leaving Marshall and 1 other target to get open vs. 7 pass defenders.
As for the game at hand, if there's a game the offense can snap out of it.....the Titans are REALLY bad on defense. That being said, they have played New England, Detroit, Houston, and Pittsburgh, along with getting San Diego and Minnesota when they were hot offensively. But they've also given up over 900 yards to the Bills and Colts the last 2 weeks. They've allowed teams to run the ball at will, they've allowed yards to WRs, TEs, RBs in the passing game. QBs have a whopping 105.8 passer rating against them. If the Bears can't get the offense going this week, it's going to have to wait even longer with Houston and San Francisco next on the schedule. Whereas I pointed out that the Panthers were not a team you could beat down the field (Cutler INT when he went deep, picked them apart when got rid of the ball quickly)...everything should be at the Bears disposal vs. the Titans.
On the other side of the ball, I actually do worry about the defense a little in this one. The Titans actually have a lot of weapons. Nate Washington has deep speed. Kenny Britt is a big target. Kendall Wright is an up-and-coming 1st round pick. I worry about the Bears matching up vs. whoever is in the slot and against the Titans TEs, led by Jared Cook. And the Bears have typically had trouble with speedy RBs, though they faced Chris Johnson as a rookie and gave up 8 yards on 14 carries. But if they aren't disciplined in their gap assignments in the front 7, you could see flashbacks of last year in Detroit when Jahvid Best got loose for a couple huge runs. Also, the Panthers showed that you can dump the ball down all game against the Bears D and force them to make tackles, which sometimes they don't do well. Hasselbeck has a history of being a patient QB that takes what the defense gives him if he doesn't get pressured. Hass has thrown 6 TDs with no INTs in his last 3 games vs. the Bears, though one of those was way back in 2007. So, obviously the key here is to stop the run first, force Tennessee into long passing downs, then getting pressure on Hasselbeck. Not much difference from any other game, but especially important against an elite RB and a 37-year old QB who has never done well vs. a strong pass rush.
I think you could see somewhat of a shootout in this game. If the pass rush doesn't show up, Hasselbeck can pick the D apart, especially in the 2-tight formation with Cook/Stevens. I do think the offense will finally score, and score enough to win this game and end the first half of the season at 7-1, but this is not a gimme game by any means.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Week 8- BEARS vs. Panthers, Game Preview
This is probably going to be more of a summary of the first 6 games of the season than a preview of the game to come. But I just have to boast about this defense! The Bears D is doing some ridiculous things so far this season. The Bears defense has allowed 10.7 points per game (taking out a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and a fake FG for TD in Green Bay). The defense has allowed 6 touchdowns this year, while scoring 5 themselves. Of the 58 points the defense has allowed, a whopping 28 of them have come in the last 34 seconds of either the 1st or 2nd half. Meaning, the Bears have allowed 30 total points NOT against a 2-minute drill, when they are predominately playing a "soft" Cover 2 scheme. And while the defense does need to tighten up vs. the hurry up offense, keep in mind that of the 28 late in half points, 8 vs. the Cowboys came with most of the second string defense on the field. Another 3 came on a crazy 56-yard FG by the Rams in Soldier Field.
Having allowed just 10.7 points per game. 71 rush yards allowed per game. On pace for 56 sacks and an astonishing 56 turnovers to match. This Bears defense is on pace to go down as one of the best in NFL history. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bears defense is that they are doing it with Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers as "role" players and not stars. While Peppers gets the attention of 2 blockers nearly every play, he's been about the 6th or 7th most productive player on the defense. Right now, Henry Melton has been the star of the defensive line, leading the team in sacks and the DL in tackles. Israel Idonije has also been more productive than Peppers in terms of stats. On the last level of the defense, Major Wright has been playing at a probowl level, with strong tackling and providing the consistency he and the rest of the revolving door at S couldn't provide in coverage last year. On the subject of "Pro Bowl level play"....in about 10 days from now Charles "Peanut" Tillman will be named the NFC defensive player of the month, to join his teammate, Tim Jennings as the lone winners of that award so far this season. And in the middle, I feel that Lance Briggs has been the best player on the football team. Briggs leads the team in tackles, has 2 INTs, both for TDs. He's 2nd on the team with 6 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles, and he's been a factor in the pass rush with a sack and several pressures. Chris Conte and Stephen Paea look to be coming around. Neither are making the big splash plays that their teammates are, but both are in the right place most of the time. Once the playmaking comes, the Bears will be 11 deep with defensive vultures. And speaking of coming around, Urlacher looks like he is starting to do that. He's making more plays in the backfield every week. He's getting his hands on more throws in the passing game.
As for this game, it's going to provide a challenge for the Bears D. Last year the Bears really struggled with Cam Newton's size and mobility. They were frustrated with his ability to escape the pocket (to throw, not run) and moreso by their inability to get him to the ground after they had their hands on him. But this year, Cam looks a little off and the Bears D looks a LOT hungrier. I think the Bears will be prepared for his strength and mobility and fare much better this time around. Steve Smith has historically given the Bears problems, so it will be interesting to see how they handle him with the CBs playing at such a high level. I'd like to see a similar strategy with Tillman or Jennings pressing him at the line with safety help deep. Force Cam to throw it to someone else, or make a mistake (as he has many times this year) trying to get the ball to Smith.
On offense, the last 2 years the Bears could have beaten Carolina with me at QB. Matt Forte has run against them at will with over 370 yards in the 2 games. But don't expect the same this year. Knowing Forte has destroyed them and that the Bears passing offense has been inconsistent, I expect Carolina to put a lot of effort into stopping the run, and forcing Jay Cutler to beat them with injured ribs. And I'd imagine when they get the Bears into passing situations, they will try to make Cutler beat them by throwing to someone other than Brandon Marshall. Normally, I'd say this is a good chance to get others involved in the passing game, but they aren't good enough to stop Marshall with all the attention anyway. Carolina's pass D has been below average this year, but they haven't been that bad. They play a lot of Cover 2 and have done a good job of not letting WRs get behind them for big plays. What they have allowed though is teams to dink and dunk them all the way down the field. Look for the Bears to throw a lot on first down, especially with safe throws and screens to the outside or to Forte as the checkdown. This will eventually open up the run game for Forte, or beat the Panthers into submission.
This is the game to get the Bears passing game on a roll. If the Bears can get the passing game going, with a top 10 rushing attack and the league's best defense, this team is a Superbowl favorite, not just a contender. If the offense gets going, frankly, this game shouldn't be close.
Having allowed just 10.7 points per game. 71 rush yards allowed per game. On pace for 56 sacks and an astonishing 56 turnovers to match. This Bears defense is on pace to go down as one of the best in NFL history. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bears defense is that they are doing it with Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers as "role" players and not stars. While Peppers gets the attention of 2 blockers nearly every play, he's been about the 6th or 7th most productive player on the defense. Right now, Henry Melton has been the star of the defensive line, leading the team in sacks and the DL in tackles. Israel Idonije has also been more productive than Peppers in terms of stats. On the last level of the defense, Major Wright has been playing at a probowl level, with strong tackling and providing the consistency he and the rest of the revolving door at S couldn't provide in coverage last year. On the subject of "Pro Bowl level play"....in about 10 days from now Charles "Peanut" Tillman will be named the NFC defensive player of the month, to join his teammate, Tim Jennings as the lone winners of that award so far this season. And in the middle, I feel that Lance Briggs has been the best player on the football team. Briggs leads the team in tackles, has 2 INTs, both for TDs. He's 2nd on the team with 6 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles, and he's been a factor in the pass rush with a sack and several pressures. Chris Conte and Stephen Paea look to be coming around. Neither are making the big splash plays that their teammates are, but both are in the right place most of the time. Once the playmaking comes, the Bears will be 11 deep with defensive vultures. And speaking of coming around, Urlacher looks like he is starting to do that. He's making more plays in the backfield every week. He's getting his hands on more throws in the passing game.
As for this game, it's going to provide a challenge for the Bears D. Last year the Bears really struggled with Cam Newton's size and mobility. They were frustrated with his ability to escape the pocket (to throw, not run) and moreso by their inability to get him to the ground after they had their hands on him. But this year, Cam looks a little off and the Bears D looks a LOT hungrier. I think the Bears will be prepared for his strength and mobility and fare much better this time around. Steve Smith has historically given the Bears problems, so it will be interesting to see how they handle him with the CBs playing at such a high level. I'd like to see a similar strategy with Tillman or Jennings pressing him at the line with safety help deep. Force Cam to throw it to someone else, or make a mistake (as he has many times this year) trying to get the ball to Smith.
On offense, the last 2 years the Bears could have beaten Carolina with me at QB. Matt Forte has run against them at will with over 370 yards in the 2 games. But don't expect the same this year. Knowing Forte has destroyed them and that the Bears passing offense has been inconsistent, I expect Carolina to put a lot of effort into stopping the run, and forcing Jay Cutler to beat them with injured ribs. And I'd imagine when they get the Bears into passing situations, they will try to make Cutler beat them by throwing to someone other than Brandon Marshall. Normally, I'd say this is a good chance to get others involved in the passing game, but they aren't good enough to stop Marshall with all the attention anyway. Carolina's pass D has been below average this year, but they haven't been that bad. They play a lot of Cover 2 and have done a good job of not letting WRs get behind them for big plays. What they have allowed though is teams to dink and dunk them all the way down the field. Look for the Bears to throw a lot on first down, especially with safe throws and screens to the outside or to Forte as the checkdown. This will eventually open up the run game for Forte, or beat the Panthers into submission.
This is the game to get the Bears passing game on a roll. If the Bears can get the passing game going, with a top 10 rushing attack and the league's best defense, this team is a Superbowl favorite, not just a contender. If the offense gets going, frankly, this game shouldn't be close.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 6- Bears vs. Lions, Game Preview
Bye weeks suck! Not playing football on Sunday afternoon also sucks! But I do take solace in the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on Monday Night Football under Jay Cutler. Lovie is actually 9-2 on MNF as Bears coach, with only 3 of them (3-0) being in Chicago. And I like the fact that the Bears get 14-days off before facing a division opponent at home.
In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense. It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season. In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight. Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same. The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%. Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling.
Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run. However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense. Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games). And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs. I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath. Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past. Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall. I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week.
On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford. The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4. It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week. But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player. Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson. Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed? Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top. Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron. If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle. The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry. In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench. Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.
Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season. Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none. Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week. With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two. Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year. Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more. Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in. I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.
I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough. This may be the Lions season on the line. A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them. Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race. But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this. Now just gotta go get it done!
In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense. It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season. In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight. Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same. The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%. Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling.
Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run. However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense. Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games). And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs. I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath. Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past. Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall. I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week.
On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford. The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4. It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week. But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player. Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson. Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed? Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top. Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron. If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle. The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry. In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench. Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.
Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season. Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none. Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week. With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two. Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year. Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more. Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in. I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.
I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough. This may be the Lions season on the line. A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them. Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race. But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this. Now just gotta go get it done!
Saturday, October 13, 2012
2013 NFL Draft, Top 50 Prospects
With the Bears on a bye week, I decided it was a good time to get back to the main reason this blog was started, THE DRAFT!
I have compiled my list of the top 50 prospects eligible for the upcoming draft, minus a few players I think will/should stay in school for another year. Without further ado....here's the list, with brief summaries of each player.
I have compiled my list of the top 50 prospects eligible for the upcoming draft, minus a few players I think will/should stay in school for another year. Without further ado....here's the list, with brief summaries of each player.
| 1 | Jarvis Jones | OLB | Georgia | could be elite pass rusher or next Lawrence Timmons |
| 2 | Star Lotulelei | DT | Utah | big, strong, athletic. Not quite Ngata, but very good |
| 3 | Jonathan Hankins | DT | Ohio St | not much pass rush, but immovable object inside |
| 4 | Barkevious Mingo | OLB | LSU | athletic, better vs. run than expected. Star potential |
| 5 | Geno Smith | QB | WVU | Aaron Rodgers-like precision, great deep ball, leader |
| 6 | Matt Barkley | QB | USC | better than Leinart/Sanchez, but needs team around him |
| 7 | Justin Hunter | WR | Tennessee | looks like a faster Sidney Rice coming out, similar knee issues too |
| 8 | Eric Reid | FS | LSU | not the elite S prospect like Berry was, but eventual pro-bowler |
| 9 | Keenan Allen | WR | California | 3-step, 5-step, gets open. Versatile WR, fits into several roles |
| 10 | Tyler Wilson | QB | Arkansas | Cutler II? Gunslinger, fits ball into coverage, needs protection |
| 11 | Chance Warmack | OG | Alabama | Prototype. Big, mobile, if he improves feet, its over for NFL DTs |
| 12 | Johnathan Banks | CB | Miss St | NFL WRs are getting bigger, this guy can matchup size/speed |
| 13 | Tyler Bray | QB | Tennessee | accuracy issues or not, 6'6" w/ rocket arm doesn't grow on trees |
| 14 | Manti Te'o | LB | Notre Dame | playing pass D now? 3-down total package LB, inside 3-4 or 4-3 |
| 15 | Dee Milliner | CB | Alabama | Size, speed, physical, only ? Is can he play w/o dominant front 7 |
| 16 | Barrett Jones | OG | Alabama | Not a true stud, but 8-10 year starter at any of C, LG, RG, even LT |
| 17 | Sam Montgomery | DE | LSU | higher to some, but needs to add weight, "get off", HUGE upside |
| 18 | Xavier Rhodes | CB | Florida St | press coverage CB, almost exclusively. Good tape vs. top WRs |
| 19 | Marcus Lattimore | RB | S Carolina | Knee injury stinks, but #1 HS recruit of '10 is clone of Arian Foster |
| 20 | Luke Joeckel | OT | Texas A&M | Starting LT since Frosh yr, had success vs. a lot of NFL DE talent |
| 21 | Bjoern Werner | DE | Florida St | Athletic, motor, upside. Perfect 4-3 DE size, can't play 3-4 though |
| 22 | Robert Woods | WR | USC | Not seeing Marvin Harrison comps, but good player, scary in slot |
| 23 | David Amerson | CB/FS | NC State | think he's an NFL FS. FS with coverage skills still worth high pick |
| 24 | Jonathan Cooper | OG | UNC | Solid, 4-year starter, rarely misses assignments at DL or LB level |
| 25 | Tyler Eifert | TE | Notre Dame | Excellent receiver. 6'6", can run, who cares if he can block? |
| 26 | Kawaan Short | DT | Purdue | Dominates at times, but can disappear. Conditioning is key |
| 27 | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan | Looks the part, but very raw. Nastier version Nate Solder |
| 28 | John Jenkins | DT | Georgia | Immovable object. Won't put up stats, but occupies 2 OL all times |
| 29 | Terrance Williams | WR | Baylor | Not a #1 WR, but strong 2, who can stretch the field. Hands? |
| 30 | Jackson Jeffcoat | DE | Texas | Fast, edge rusher, more OLB than 4-3 DE at this point, can add lbs |
| 31 | Corey Lemonier | OLB | Auburn | Least athletic, but most consistent producer of deep OLB/DE class |
| 32 | Alex Okafor | DE | Texas | More NFL ready than teammate, more 4-3 DE, plays solid run D |
| 33 | Dallas Thomas | OG/OT | Tennessee | Good feet and hand placement, moved to LG after 3 years @ LT |
| 34 | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M | Athletic, needs to get bigger/stronger, but dad is HOF OT, I'm sold! |
| 35 | Sharrif Floyd | DT | Florida | Uses hands really well, quick enough to play some DE, Melton 2.0? |
| 36 | DJ Fluker | OT | Alabama | Either a RT or big LG ala Gallery, at next level to me, very strong |
| 37 | William Gholston | DE | Michigan St | Poor man's Quinton Coples, shows flashes, but needs more |
| 38 | Matt Elam | S | Florida | Little size & speed, but plays big in box. Best cover S in draft. |
| 39 | Michael Buchanan | DE | Illinois | A blur off the edge, flashed while watching Mercilus. Run D is ? |
| 40 | TJ McDonald | S | USC | Versatile S, with NFL bloodlines, experience in pro style D |
| 41 | Khaled Holmes | OC | USC | Athletic, tough C in the mold of the Pounceys, not quite as good |
| 42 | Alec Ogletree | LB | Georgia | Long, fast LB can play inside or outside in 30 or 40 front, climber |
| 43 | Brennan Williams | OT | UNC | Son of NFL DT, strong run blocking RT, can work on footwork |
| 44 | Kenny Vaccaro | S | Texas | Playmaking S who can really run and cover, can work on tackling |
| 45 | Sylvester Williams | DT | UNC | 4-3 or 3-4 NT, good motor, not much of a pass rusher |
| 46 | Oday Aboushi | OT | Virginia | Raw, with lots of LT upside. If feet don't come, could play LG |
| 47 | Dion Jordan | DE | Oregon | long (6-7) lean athlete, who can bend, can get stronger at POA |
| 48 | Kevin Reddick | LB | UNC | Laterally gifted LB, could play inside or strong in 4-3. Can cover |
| 49 | Sean Porter | OLB | Texas A&M | Not the next Von Miller, but could be 4-3 Sam LB, blitz at times |
| 50 | Tavon Austin | WR | WVU | slot WR, kick returner, productive. Harvin, Antonio Brown type |
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Week 5- Bears @ Jaguars, Game Preview
Lovie is known for breaking the season down in quarters, by each set of 4 games. Well, the Bears got out of the 1st quarter of the season in pretty good shape. At 3-1, the Bears are about where I expected them to be. Won the 2 games at home against teams they were clearly superior to. Beat the Cowboys sounded on the road. Only loss was losing the home opener for the Packers on a short week. Granted, I was pretty optimistic about the GB game given both team's openers, but that wasn't a game that was circled on the schedule as one the Bears "had to have".
The 2nd quarter of the season starts, and while I don't like to look ahead, 3-1 looks again to be worst acceptable case scenario. Four straight 1-win teams on the schedule. On paper, the Detroit game looks to be the toughest, but that is a home game with the Bears having 14 days off before welcoming the Lions back to a place they got annihilated last year. A home game the following week is sandwiched by road games at Tennessee in Week 9, and this week in Jacksonville.
Many are going to point to this game as a potential letdown game because of the short week and bye coming up. But if there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to happen defensively. The defense hasn't had to completely carry the team like in years past, but they have done their part in keeping the offense in the game in Green Bay and vs. the Rams until they got going (or didn't in Week 2's case). Monday night, the D provided all the momentum plays with 2 TDs and a big turnover in the redzone when the Cowboys looked to make it a 1-score game again. A couple years ago, the Bears beat the Eagles in a national televised game of what most thought were two evenly matched teams. The Bears won the game, but then kind of went thru the motions the next week vs. the 2-9 Lions. The defense didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. And backup QB, Drew Stanton had a 102 QB rating.
However, even a "going thru the motions" game by the D should be good enough to beat the Jags. For one, the offense should be able to move the ball and put up enough points to beat a Jags teams that has struggled to score points for several years now. Secondly, the Bears defense is really, really tough to score on. The Bears have allowed 68 points this season. But you have to take out 14 allowed by a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and the fake FG TD in Green Bay. That leaves 54 points in 4 games. While that is good, consider that the Bears have given up their share of points in garbage time. The Colts scored their last TD when down 20 points in the 4th quarter. The "great" Packers offense got a last second FG before halftime, as did the Rams. The Cowboys scored 15 of their 18 points in the last 35 seconds of each half. The Bears defense has allowed a grand total of 33 points in the first 29 minutes of the 8 halves of football they've played this season. 9 of those 33 have come on FGs over 45 yards, 7 came on a 1-play, 26 yard drive in the GB game after a Cutler INT, and the aforementioned 7 came with the Bears up 20 on the Colts.
On defense (and I hope the Bears coaches are taking note here), the Bears might just see a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. It's no secret the Jags will try to get the ball to MJD in the run game, in the pass game, they will do everything they can to test Urlacher's health. And while Gabbert is the least productive QB in the league (again), he doesn't make a ton of mistakes (hard to mess up a check down throw), so the Bears shouldn't count on padding their league leading 11 INTs much. Gabbert though, won't always check down. I expect him to take a couple shots deep in Cecil Shorts' direction, especially if the Bears start to commit Wright and/or Conte in the box to stop MJD. Shorts is a big play threat with 1/2 of his 6 catches going for 20+ this year, including a game-winning 80-yarder vs. the Colts. Then again, the Bears also are among the league leaders in sacks, and the Jags can't pass block very well so deep shots may not even be possible for Blaine. With Laurent Robinson out, the Bears will likely allow Charles Tillman to follow Justin Blackmon around the field and get physical with the Jags' 2012 first round pick. Blackmon showed vs. a much smaller Leonard Johnson, last year vs. Iowa St that he can struggle with tough coverage. It doesn't get much tougher than Peanut.
On offense, the inconsistent Bears offense faces a defense that doesn't do very much well. They don't rush the pass well, with only 2 sacks so far on the season. They have only caused 4 turnovers in 4 games. And they are 30th in the league in run defense. Not going to provide much insight this week, but basically the offense has to take what the Jags give them. If they sell out to help that porous run D, then the passing game will be wide open. If they try to drop back in their typical 2-deep coverage, Forte and Bush will eventually gash them in the run game. If they blitz, they don't have anyone that can cover Marshall or Jeffery's size or Devin Hester's speed.
Not necessarily expecting a blowout this week, as the stature of the two teams suggest. But the Bears should be able to win this game. It'll probably be another boring game like the Rams. If the Bears come out flat, the Jags may be able to score a couple times, but I don't see many scenarios where they get more than 17 points offensively (with that being the very high end). And if the Bears offense doesn't completely crap the bed or allow defensive scores, the Bears should be able to win. Whether they beat the spread (-5.5) or not depends on if the offense completely clicks or just does enough like the Rams game.
The 2nd quarter of the season starts, and while I don't like to look ahead, 3-1 looks again to be worst acceptable case scenario. Four straight 1-win teams on the schedule. On paper, the Detroit game looks to be the toughest, but that is a home game with the Bears having 14 days off before welcoming the Lions back to a place they got annihilated last year. A home game the following week is sandwiched by road games at Tennessee in Week 9, and this week in Jacksonville.
Many are going to point to this game as a potential letdown game because of the short week and bye coming up. But if there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to happen defensively. The defense hasn't had to completely carry the team like in years past, but they have done their part in keeping the offense in the game in Green Bay and vs. the Rams until they got going (or didn't in Week 2's case). Monday night, the D provided all the momentum plays with 2 TDs and a big turnover in the redzone when the Cowboys looked to make it a 1-score game again. A couple years ago, the Bears beat the Eagles in a national televised game of what most thought were two evenly matched teams. The Bears won the game, but then kind of went thru the motions the next week vs. the 2-9 Lions. The defense didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. And backup QB, Drew Stanton had a 102 QB rating.
However, even a "going thru the motions" game by the D should be good enough to beat the Jags. For one, the offense should be able to move the ball and put up enough points to beat a Jags teams that has struggled to score points for several years now. Secondly, the Bears defense is really, really tough to score on. The Bears have allowed 68 points this season. But you have to take out 14 allowed by a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and the fake FG TD in Green Bay. That leaves 54 points in 4 games. While that is good, consider that the Bears have given up their share of points in garbage time. The Colts scored their last TD when down 20 points in the 4th quarter. The "great" Packers offense got a last second FG before halftime, as did the Rams. The Cowboys scored 15 of their 18 points in the last 35 seconds of each half. The Bears defense has allowed a grand total of 33 points in the first 29 minutes of the 8 halves of football they've played this season. 9 of those 33 have come on FGs over 45 yards, 7 came on a 1-play, 26 yard drive in the GB game after a Cutler INT, and the aforementioned 7 came with the Bears up 20 on the Colts.
On defense (and I hope the Bears coaches are taking note here), the Bears might just see a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. It's no secret the Jags will try to get the ball to MJD in the run game, in the pass game, they will do everything they can to test Urlacher's health. And while Gabbert is the least productive QB in the league (again), he doesn't make a ton of mistakes (hard to mess up a check down throw), so the Bears shouldn't count on padding their league leading 11 INTs much. Gabbert though, won't always check down. I expect him to take a couple shots deep in Cecil Shorts' direction, especially if the Bears start to commit Wright and/or Conte in the box to stop MJD. Shorts is a big play threat with 1/2 of his 6 catches going for 20+ this year, including a game-winning 80-yarder vs. the Colts. Then again, the Bears also are among the league leaders in sacks, and the Jags can't pass block very well so deep shots may not even be possible for Blaine. With Laurent Robinson out, the Bears will likely allow Charles Tillman to follow Justin Blackmon around the field and get physical with the Jags' 2012 first round pick. Blackmon showed vs. a much smaller Leonard Johnson, last year vs. Iowa St that he can struggle with tough coverage. It doesn't get much tougher than Peanut.
On offense, the inconsistent Bears offense faces a defense that doesn't do very much well. They don't rush the pass well, with only 2 sacks so far on the season. They have only caused 4 turnovers in 4 games. And they are 30th in the league in run defense. Not going to provide much insight this week, but basically the offense has to take what the Jags give them. If they sell out to help that porous run D, then the passing game will be wide open. If they try to drop back in their typical 2-deep coverage, Forte and Bush will eventually gash them in the run game. If they blitz, they don't have anyone that can cover Marshall or Jeffery's size or Devin Hester's speed.
Not necessarily expecting a blowout this week, as the stature of the two teams suggest. But the Bears should be able to win this game. It'll probably be another boring game like the Rams. If the Bears come out flat, the Jags may be able to score a couple times, but I don't see many scenarios where they get more than 17 points offensively (with that being the very high end). And if the Bears offense doesn't completely crap the bed or allow defensive scores, the Bears should be able to win. Whether they beat the spread (-5.5) or not depends on if the offense completely clicks or just does enough like the Rams game.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Week 4- Bears @ Cowboys, Game Preview
Week 1- Both teams clicking on all cylinders. One upends the defending world champions on their home field. The other shows the world that their new-found offensive weapons are something to be reckoned with. The word "Superbowl" is mentioned when talking about both teams.
Week 2- Both teams get embarrassed on the road. One gets a long week and takes a 20-point loss. One gets a short week and takes a double digit loss.
Week 3- Both teams pick up much needed victories, but neither is impressive. Both offenses struggle with lackluster OL play, inconsistency from receivers, erratic QB play, and underwhelming play calling.
Despite being polar opposites schematically and philosophically, the Bears and Cowboys have been mirror images of each other for a few years now. Both teams have pretty boy QBs, that have dated reality TV stars, and who the media loves to hate. Both teams have also very recently taken heartbreaking Week 17 losses to allow their biggest rivals to be the "last team in" the playoffs, only to see said rival hoist the Lombardi trophy, 5 weeks later. So far this season, both teams have shown flashes of brilliance on offense, but both have been carried by strong defense, particularly pass defense.
The Cowboys bolstered their pass game this offseason by signing FA, Brandon Carr and trading up to draft #1 CB, Morris Claiborne. The Bears kept the status quo, and it has paid heavy dividends. Tim Jennings currently leads the NFL, allowing a 4.6 passer rating to QBs who dare throw his way. Jennings leads the league with 4 INTs, and one of his pass breakups last week led to a Major Wright TD to ice the Rams. Yet, Jennings has had a ton of balls thrown his way. That says to me, Charles Tillman must really be playing good football on the other side of the field. Throw in DJ Moore having a strong Week 3, and there's your key matchups on both sides.
Tillman-Jennings-Moore will presumably play a lot of man coverage vs. Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Kevin Ogletree. Likewise, Claiborne and Carr will be 1-on-1 a lot vs. Marshall and Jeffery. Helping the Bears trio is a defensive front 4 that has been dominant getting after the QB this year. The Bears lead the league with 14 QB sacks, with 5 players having at least 1.5. So, the Bears will come after the suspect Cowboys OL from all angles. But I would be foolish if I left out the fact that the 'Boys have possibly the best pass rusher in the NFL going against possibly the worst pass blocking OT in the NFL, on their side. If the Bears help out Webb a lot, watch for the blitz (don't have much help for Ware rushing the passer) and the Cowboys to gamble with their CBs and try to force Cutler into a poor throw.
The Cowboys have been strong defensively to start the year, but I feel there are ways the Bears can attack them. Some of the parts have changed, but Week 2 from 2010 is a blueprint of how the Bears can win this game. The Bears need to play fast. Not sure how much no huddle the Bears have in the playbook, but the Cowboys aren't a very deep team defensively. Ratliff and Coleman missed last week along their D-line. Spears and Lissemore have joined them on the injury report for this week. The Bears need to get the ball out of Cutler's hands quickly and put pressure on the Cowboys to tackle the Bears big WRs in the open field. Unlike 2 years ago, I do think the Bears will be able to run the ball against Dallas. Bush looks good to go this week, but if Forte also is able to go, the Bears will have the potential to hit them up inside and out to keep them off-balanced.
I also look for special teams to have an impact in this game. Hester loves it indoors, and has been closer and closer to breaking one the last 2 weeks. Bryant has also shown some explosion in the return game and had a return TD vs. the Bears in 2010. Short fields will play a huge factor this week, with 2 struggling offense. But despite the struggling offenses in this one, I actually expect some points to be put on the board. Maybe even as many as the 47 from a couple years ago. Winner gets a huge boost, as the victor will move to 3-1 in the competitive NFC. Dallas may have more at stake with games @ Balt, Atl, and Philly with the Giants also coming to town in the next 5. The Bears follow with 4 games they should be favored in, before the schedule gets really tough. A Bears win would give them a strong shot at a playoff berth.
Week 2- Both teams get embarrassed on the road. One gets a long week and takes a 20-point loss. One gets a short week and takes a double digit loss.
Week 3- Both teams pick up much needed victories, but neither is impressive. Both offenses struggle with lackluster OL play, inconsistency from receivers, erratic QB play, and underwhelming play calling.
Despite being polar opposites schematically and philosophically, the Bears and Cowboys have been mirror images of each other for a few years now. Both teams have pretty boy QBs, that have dated reality TV stars, and who the media loves to hate. Both teams have also very recently taken heartbreaking Week 17 losses to allow their biggest rivals to be the "last team in" the playoffs, only to see said rival hoist the Lombardi trophy, 5 weeks later. So far this season, both teams have shown flashes of brilliance on offense, but both have been carried by strong defense, particularly pass defense.
The Cowboys bolstered their pass game this offseason by signing FA, Brandon Carr and trading up to draft #1 CB, Morris Claiborne. The Bears kept the status quo, and it has paid heavy dividends. Tim Jennings currently leads the NFL, allowing a 4.6 passer rating to QBs who dare throw his way. Jennings leads the league with 4 INTs, and one of his pass breakups last week led to a Major Wright TD to ice the Rams. Yet, Jennings has had a ton of balls thrown his way. That says to me, Charles Tillman must really be playing good football on the other side of the field. Throw in DJ Moore having a strong Week 3, and there's your key matchups on both sides.
Tillman-Jennings-Moore will presumably play a lot of man coverage vs. Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Kevin Ogletree. Likewise, Claiborne and Carr will be 1-on-1 a lot vs. Marshall and Jeffery. Helping the Bears trio is a defensive front 4 that has been dominant getting after the QB this year. The Bears lead the league with 14 QB sacks, with 5 players having at least 1.5. So, the Bears will come after the suspect Cowboys OL from all angles. But I would be foolish if I left out the fact that the 'Boys have possibly the best pass rusher in the NFL going against possibly the worst pass blocking OT in the NFL, on their side. If the Bears help out Webb a lot, watch for the blitz (don't have much help for Ware rushing the passer) and the Cowboys to gamble with their CBs and try to force Cutler into a poor throw.
The Cowboys have been strong defensively to start the year, but I feel there are ways the Bears can attack them. Some of the parts have changed, but Week 2 from 2010 is a blueprint of how the Bears can win this game. The Bears need to play fast. Not sure how much no huddle the Bears have in the playbook, but the Cowboys aren't a very deep team defensively. Ratliff and Coleman missed last week along their D-line. Spears and Lissemore have joined them on the injury report for this week. The Bears need to get the ball out of Cutler's hands quickly and put pressure on the Cowboys to tackle the Bears big WRs in the open field. Unlike 2 years ago, I do think the Bears will be able to run the ball against Dallas. Bush looks good to go this week, but if Forte also is able to go, the Bears will have the potential to hit them up inside and out to keep them off-balanced.
I also look for special teams to have an impact in this game. Hester loves it indoors, and has been closer and closer to breaking one the last 2 weeks. Bryant has also shown some explosion in the return game and had a return TD vs. the Bears in 2010. Short fields will play a huge factor this week, with 2 struggling offense. But despite the struggling offenses in this one, I actually expect some points to be put on the board. Maybe even as many as the 47 from a couple years ago. Winner gets a huge boost, as the victor will move to 3-1 in the competitive NFC. Dallas may have more at stake with games @ Balt, Atl, and Philly with the Giants also coming to town in the next 5. The Bears follow with 4 games they should be favored in, before the schedule gets really tough. A Bears win would give them a strong shot at a playoff berth.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Week 3- Bears vs. Rams, Game Preview
No team should be more anxious to take the field in Week 3 than the Chicago Bears. The world has been talking for 10 days about a sideline incident that has pretty much happened before in every game with every team, including Rodgers getting into James Jones face in the very same game. But anyway, after talking to the media about this for 10 days, the Bears will be ready to take the field tomorrow to show the world they are better than the team that showed up in Green Bay last Thursday night.
Many Bears fans are concerned about this feisty Rams team. And frankly, the Rams could easily be 2-0 right now had they not blown a lead to Detroit late. But as I said Week 1, if the Bears don't handle this team, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, the way they were projected before the season. The Rams have been pretty solid offensively so far this year, especially in the run game. But don't expect that to continue against the Bears D that has been pretty tough to run against for the last 10 years. The Rams have done almost nothing on defense other than intercept the ball. 4 picks in 2 games, but 3 of them came early vs. Stafford in Week 1. They've still allowed the 9th most passing yards in the league so far, despite seriously upgrading their defensive backs. Speaking of DBs....lost in the drama of the last 10 days is the fact that Green Bay completely shut down the Bears WRs, mainly Brandon Marshall by playing 2-man coverage on him, with a CB jumping short routes knowing he had safety help over the top. The Bears have to make sure that the same scheme is NOT successful again. A couple reasons why I think that may not work:
A) The Bears have had 10 days to practice against that type of coverage, and hopefully they have something in store (Cutler fitting the ball into the window between CB and FS) or getting the ball to Marshall on 3-step patterns before the safety help comes into the picture.
B) Cortland Finnegan is a cocky SOB. He was paid a lot of money. And he's going to want the challenge of taking Marshall 1-on-1 at times. And if the Bears start gashing the Rams run D, Fisher isn't going to want to commit that extra player (FS) to Marshall when he has a probowl CB at his disposal.
Cutler cannot be afraid of the 2-man coverage and find his openings to get the ball to Marshall. But he also has to pick his spots to do so.
The last few years the Bears have kind of had to be beaten in the head before they run a legitimate offensive attack. I know this is a passing league, but the reason the pass is so successful is because offenses are designed to get the ball out of the QBs hands faster and make more efficient throws. The Bears have called way too many 5-7 step drops so far thru 2 games. Quick math shows about 75-80% of drop backs have been more than 3-steps. That's not going to get it done with this OL. The Bears have big WRs now that can win in the short passing game and not get bumped off their routes like in years past.
After giving up 9 sacks in 1 half vs. the Giants in 2010, and 8 sacks vs. the Saints and Packers in Weeks 2-3 last year, the Bears were fortunate enough to play the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 of both seasons. This year, it's the Rams, who frankly, are a similar team. The Bears were able to run the ball at will both years vs. Carolina, taking all the pressure off of the QB (Todd Collins in 2010). Carolina was very weak in the middle with suspect DTs. With Brockers likely out for the Rams, they too will fit that bill. With Michael Bush getting the bulk of the action this week, the Bears will be more willing to pound the ball up the middle, taking the weight off of Cutler's (and the OL's) shoulders. I wouldn't expect Cutler to throw the ball more than 25 times in this game. And when he does throw, the Bears have to remember that Bush CAN be a factor in the passing game. Bush is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Caught 37 passes in Oakland despite only 9 starts. The checkdown should still be a viable option, unlike last week when the Bears almost refused to dump the ball after Forte went out last week.
Week 1, I expected the Bears to put up 30+ and win by 2 TDs. They did. Week 2, I expected them to be competitive and possibly get a W in Green Bay. They did not. This week, I expect a very conservative attack, but I expect them to move the ball and hand it over to the defense to stop St. Louis. Bears get back on track this Sunday!
Many Bears fans are concerned about this feisty Rams team. And frankly, the Rams could easily be 2-0 right now had they not blown a lead to Detroit late. But as I said Week 1, if the Bears don't handle this team, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, the way they were projected before the season. The Rams have been pretty solid offensively so far this year, especially in the run game. But don't expect that to continue against the Bears D that has been pretty tough to run against for the last 10 years. The Rams have done almost nothing on defense other than intercept the ball. 4 picks in 2 games, but 3 of them came early vs. Stafford in Week 1. They've still allowed the 9th most passing yards in the league so far, despite seriously upgrading their defensive backs. Speaking of DBs....lost in the drama of the last 10 days is the fact that Green Bay completely shut down the Bears WRs, mainly Brandon Marshall by playing 2-man coverage on him, with a CB jumping short routes knowing he had safety help over the top. The Bears have to make sure that the same scheme is NOT successful again. A couple reasons why I think that may not work:
A) The Bears have had 10 days to practice against that type of coverage, and hopefully they have something in store (Cutler fitting the ball into the window between CB and FS) or getting the ball to Marshall on 3-step patterns before the safety help comes into the picture.
B) Cortland Finnegan is a cocky SOB. He was paid a lot of money. And he's going to want the challenge of taking Marshall 1-on-1 at times. And if the Bears start gashing the Rams run D, Fisher isn't going to want to commit that extra player (FS) to Marshall when he has a probowl CB at his disposal.
Cutler cannot be afraid of the 2-man coverage and find his openings to get the ball to Marshall. But he also has to pick his spots to do so.
The last few years the Bears have kind of had to be beaten in the head before they run a legitimate offensive attack. I know this is a passing league, but the reason the pass is so successful is because offenses are designed to get the ball out of the QBs hands faster and make more efficient throws. The Bears have called way too many 5-7 step drops so far thru 2 games. Quick math shows about 75-80% of drop backs have been more than 3-steps. That's not going to get it done with this OL. The Bears have big WRs now that can win in the short passing game and not get bumped off their routes like in years past.
After giving up 9 sacks in 1 half vs. the Giants in 2010, and 8 sacks vs. the Saints and Packers in Weeks 2-3 last year, the Bears were fortunate enough to play the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 of both seasons. This year, it's the Rams, who frankly, are a similar team. The Bears were able to run the ball at will both years vs. Carolina, taking all the pressure off of the QB (Todd Collins in 2010). Carolina was very weak in the middle with suspect DTs. With Brockers likely out for the Rams, they too will fit that bill. With Michael Bush getting the bulk of the action this week, the Bears will be more willing to pound the ball up the middle, taking the weight off of Cutler's (and the OL's) shoulders. I wouldn't expect Cutler to throw the ball more than 25 times in this game. And when he does throw, the Bears have to remember that Bush CAN be a factor in the passing game. Bush is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Caught 37 passes in Oakland despite only 9 starts. The checkdown should still be a viable option, unlike last week when the Bears almost refused to dump the ball after Forte went out last week.
Week 1, I expected the Bears to put up 30+ and win by 2 TDs. They did. Week 2, I expected them to be competitive and possibly get a W in Green Bay. They did not. This week, I expect a very conservative attack, but I expect them to move the ball and hand it over to the defense to stop St. Louis. Bears get back on track this Sunday!
Monday, September 17, 2012
Bear Game 2 Analysis
I don't know that I'm going to do this every week, but like most Bears fans, last Thursday's game is really baffling me.
The main concern I have after re-watching this game, is who the hell let Mike Martz back into the Bears box? I'm not even going to get into J'Marcus Webb giving up 2 1/2 sacks to Clay Matthews. Not even going to get into Chris Spencer and Garza giving up 3-4 more up the middle. Why? Because I knew well before Thursday's kickoff that J'Marcus Webb could not block Matthews 1-on-1. I knew Chris Spencer would struggle picking up the blitz and handling guys like Raji and Daniels. But what I cannot understand for the life of me is, if I know the Bears can't win these matchups....and everyone who will read this knows the Bears couldn't win those matchups....then why can't the coaching staff who's been around these guys for 2-3 years not figure this out?
Cutler dropped back to pass 34 times, was sacked 7 of them. Of those 34 dropbacks, I generously counted a whopping 7 three-step drops, as I counted anything in question as a 3-step. Two of those 7 plays were 2nd and 20 and 3rd and 33 (after the Webb blown block that started the incident) respectively. Two more were late in the game as Marshall's only 2 catches. Now to be fair, I only counted 10 3-step drops in the opener vs. the Colts. However, the caveat is that the Colts weren't getting in Cutler's face with the pass rush at will.
I'm very disappointed that Mike Mar...er Tice refused to adjust his flawed game plan when; A) Cutler was getting knocked around every play or B) when Brandon Marshall went more than 2 series without a target or reception. Common sense would say that if a team is teeing off on your QB, you get the ball out of his hands faster. When you want to give routes more time to develop, you move the pocket. The Bears refused to do either, and lost miserably.
The playcalling is my main issue, but I also have a few other thoughts that came to mind while watching this game.
- For a team that is supposedly based in the Cover 2 zone defense....the Bears really suck at zone defense. The times the D was able to make stops, plays on the pass or get sacks, it's because they were in man coverage and were able to lock down the Packers WRs. The Packers only offensive TD was vs. the Cover 2 when Major Wright was well out of place.
- Every year we hear how Devin Hester is tearing it up in camp, yet he rarely shows up on Sundays. Drops passes and doesn't get open nearly as much as his speed and shiftiness would lead you to believe.
- Michael Bush is 245lbs, but he's not a FB. The Bears seem to be hellbent on using him as a battering ram between the tackles, but refuse to involve him in the passing game. Someone needs to tell the Bears that Bush caught 37 passes last year, which is impressive considering he only started 9 games.
- The Bears can still get it done on D. Aging or not, Briggs, Urlacher, Tillman and Peppers are almost as good as they've ever been. Tim Jennings needs to make the pro bowl this year.
The main concern I have after re-watching this game, is who the hell let Mike Martz back into the Bears box? I'm not even going to get into J'Marcus Webb giving up 2 1/2 sacks to Clay Matthews. Not even going to get into Chris Spencer and Garza giving up 3-4 more up the middle. Why? Because I knew well before Thursday's kickoff that J'Marcus Webb could not block Matthews 1-on-1. I knew Chris Spencer would struggle picking up the blitz and handling guys like Raji and Daniels. But what I cannot understand for the life of me is, if I know the Bears can't win these matchups....and everyone who will read this knows the Bears couldn't win those matchups....then why can't the coaching staff who's been around these guys for 2-3 years not figure this out?
Cutler dropped back to pass 34 times, was sacked 7 of them. Of those 34 dropbacks, I generously counted a whopping 7 three-step drops, as I counted anything in question as a 3-step. Two of those 7 plays were 2nd and 20 and 3rd and 33 (after the Webb blown block that started the incident) respectively. Two more were late in the game as Marshall's only 2 catches. Now to be fair, I only counted 10 3-step drops in the opener vs. the Colts. However, the caveat is that the Colts weren't getting in Cutler's face with the pass rush at will.
I'm very disappointed that Mike Mar...er Tice refused to adjust his flawed game plan when; A) Cutler was getting knocked around every play or B) when Brandon Marshall went more than 2 series without a target or reception. Common sense would say that if a team is teeing off on your QB, you get the ball out of his hands faster. When you want to give routes more time to develop, you move the pocket. The Bears refused to do either, and lost miserably.
The playcalling is my main issue, but I also have a few other thoughts that came to mind while watching this game.
- For a team that is supposedly based in the Cover 2 zone defense....the Bears really suck at zone defense. The times the D was able to make stops, plays on the pass or get sacks, it's because they were in man coverage and were able to lock down the Packers WRs. The Packers only offensive TD was vs. the Cover 2 when Major Wright was well out of place.
- Every year we hear how Devin Hester is tearing it up in camp, yet he rarely shows up on Sundays. Drops passes and doesn't get open nearly as much as his speed and shiftiness would lead you to believe.
- Michael Bush is 245lbs, but he's not a FB. The Bears seem to be hellbent on using him as a battering ram between the tackles, but refuse to involve him in the passing game. Someone needs to tell the Bears that Bush caught 37 passes last year, which is impressive considering he only started 9 games.
- The Bears can still get it done on D. Aging or not, Briggs, Urlacher, Tillman and Peppers are almost as good as they've ever been. Tim Jennings needs to make the pro bowl this year.
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