The Bears went 3-1 in the 1st quarter of the season. 4-0 in the 2nd quarter. Just finished a troubling 1-3 in the 3rd quarter. Now starts the 4th quarter of the season. The Bears were once a 7-1 team, thought of as possibly the best team in the league had they beat a 7-1 Houston team at home. But losses in 3 out of 4 games and injuries starting to mount has Bears Nation concerned. That being said, most Bears fans know that this team has a pretty good shot at making the playoffs. The question most of us have though, "what good is it going to do if the Bears can't beat a good team"? All 4 of the Bears losses have come to teams currently in the playoffs (if the season ended). And the only of the 8 wins against a "good" team was at home in Andrew Luck's NFL debut with the Colts in Week 1. But have no fear Bears fans! I will try to put your wandering minds at ease!
Breaking down the Bears 4 losses, they may not be as bad as they seem on paper. As I mentioned, all 4 losses were to teams that are likely playoff participants. However, the 1st loss was on a short week on the road in Green Bay. Granted it sucks to lose to the Packers at any time, but that loss was on the road, against a division rival, on a short week. But not just any short week, it was Week 2. Four days after the season opener. If you throw in the fact that many Bears starters either didn't play or played very sparingly in Week 2 of the preseason, and absolutely NONE of them played in Week 4 of the preseason....you're talking about a team that played half a game together, had essentially 2 weeks off, then had to play 2 games in a span of 4 days. While the Packers had to do the same, it's a lot easier to deal with when you don't have to travel for either of those games. The next 2 losses were a close one with Cutler missing 1/2 the game, and a blowout with Cutler missing all the game. That leads me to last Sunday.
While the Bears did lose the game vs. the Seahawks, there were some positives that came out of it. The Bears are a different team without Cutler, and that team ain't pretty. But the last 2 weeks, the offense has really shown signs of putting it together. The Cutler led Bears offense has gone 17-31 on 3rd downs since he's come back from the concussion. That number is even skewed to the lower end by Mike Tice essentially giving up on a handful of 3rd downs with late leads. The Bears moved the ball to the tune of 7.16 yards per play on Sunday, and even taking out the desperation bomb to Marshall, that number would still be over 7...which is a pretty good number. The Bears put up 358 yards of total offense, which isn't an astounding number, but has been a magic number when it comes to the Bears. When Cutler has led the offense to over 350 total yards, the team is 12-2 and averaging over 26 points per game (that's with taking out defensive scores too). Despite 2 injuries and a walkout, the Bears OL has been impressive in pass protection also the last 2 weeks. Cutler has been sacked just 1 time each of the last 2 games. And even those sacks came on a Cutler dropped shotgun snap on Sunday and him tripping over his center the week before. Tice has done a decent job the last 2 weeks of mixing in short, intermediate and long drops. He's moved the pocket. He's put Marshall in the slot often and run crossing routes to get guys open. Bennett, Rodriguez and Forte have gotten involved more in the passing game. Sunday was especially impressive considering the Bears were down to Marshall and their #5 and 6 WRs for half the game, against maybe the best secondary in the league. The Bears offense should be getting Jeffery back this week, followed by hopefully Bennett and Hester by next week at the latest. Should only go up from here on offense, especially now that the big defensive tests are over......for now.
Did I give you a ray of hope yet? Well, now I gotta call it how I see it on the other side of the ball. The last 4 weeks the Bears defense has been very lackluster. Granted, they've only given up 321 yards per game over the last 4 (even with a 450 yard output allowed Sunday), but they have been exposed. Houston opened up a huge can of worms with their stretch run plays. This is the play that is a long-slow developing handoff where the OL all takes hard slants to the play side, blocking anyone who tries to cross their face. Sometimes there are crackback blocks, TEs in motion or pulling weakside linemen. Arian Foster was able to get a couple of big runs and Gore, Peterson and Lynch have now followed suit. The Bears OF old would have little trouble stopping this play, but now the Bears ARE old at some key spots. A young Brian Urlacher would have been able to scrape to the outside and beat the slanting/pulling OL to the punch and stop the RB for minimal gain. And he did do that on occasion the last 4 weeks, but he typically cheated to the outside to do so. The Bears have also been hurt a couple times because of the cheating outside and are susceptible to the cutback. But Urlacher doesn't get all the blame here. The Bears DEs have done a horrific job holding the edge. Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije have allowed OTs to block them away from the edge to allow RBs the corner to pick up positive yardage way too often. Russell Wilson joined into the act Sunday as the Bears DEs consistently lost contain and he picked up any 3rd down he needed with his legs. The coverage also suffered Sunday as Wilson kept plays alive and the CBs couldn't stay with the Seahawks speedy WRs for that long. With Urlacher now out for possibly 3 weeks, I'm interested to see how Nick Roach handles this at the Mike LB position. He really looked good in the preseason and a good end to this season could mean he takes over the job full-time in 2013. Minnesota will definitely test him this week with Peterson and with Kyle Rudolph the TE in the middle of the field.
But basically, this Bears D has become entirely dependent on getting turnovers. It feels like when they don't get a turnover, they really don't know what to do. Of course, the Bears D has gotten multiple turnovers in all but 2 games so far. But the 2 games they didn't, the 49ers dominated them and the Seahawks beat them with TD scoring drives of 94, 97, and 80 in OT. They have won every game that they've forced at least 2 turnovers, other than when they've given up 4 TOs on offense themselves.
Going forward, I can see the Bears offense continuing to get better. Cutler-to-Marshall is as good as any QB/WR combo in the league. But as the Bears get some guys healthy and get more guys involved, it's only going to make them more dangerous, with 350 yards as the benchmark. Defensively, turnovers may not be as easy to come by once they get the better teams in the playoffs (if they make it there). But it has been the one phase of the Lovie Smith era that has been consistent. Don't discount this team's chances to move the ball with a healthy offense and to take the ball away with an opportunistic defense. As for this week's game, I expect more of the same from 2 weeks ago. I think the offense will move the ball, and put up points. I think the defense will struggle some against Peterson, but don't feel Christian Ponder is good enough to beat them with his arm. And while he is mobile, he's not Russell Wilson back there, so he shouldn't be able to beat them with his legs either.
This blog is solely used to provide both Steelers and Bears fans with a very realistic look at their teams upcoming possible draft picks.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Week 13 BEARS vs. Seahawks, Game Preview
The complete homer in me has been pretty confident in the Bears winning every game so far, and I have been right 73% of the time. Yet, somehow I'm very worried about this game. The Seahawks have won just 7 road games in the last 3.75 seasons, 3 of them division games against bad Arizona and St. Louis teams, 1 was this year vs. a bad Carolina team. But 2 of the 7 have come in Chicago. Granted, 1 of those was last year against a Caleb Hanie led Bears team, but Seattle did dominate on all phases in that game.
A lot of the faces are different for Seattle's offense, but not much has changed overall. Russell Wilson is a similar player to Tavaris Jackson, who the Bears faced last season. Still have Lynch at RB, Tate at WR, Miller at TE, and Robinson at FB. Only difference (other than a similar QB) is Sidney Rice instead of Mike Williams at the other WR. Like Jackson did in the game last year, Wilson will spread the ball around to a variety of targets. In 11 games, Wilson has targeted at least 9 different receivers in 8 of those. While the Bears typically do a pretty decent job at taking away a team's top option not named Steve Smith (Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson for example this year), they have struggled in the last few years when a team has a variety of guys they can throw to. Not that Seattle has anybody that strikes fear into defenses, but they can put several respectable receiving options on the field at the same time to give the Bears a lot to have to worry about.
The Bears have typically had success against Marshawn Lynch, holding him to just 88 yards on 39 carries in 3 career games. I expect more of the same this week. But where the defense has to step up is keeping Russell Wilson in the pocket. It's no secret, Wilson is short and has trouble seeing over his OL. It's also no secret that he can really move and can throw well out of the pocket, often improvising plays on the fly. The Bears have had mixed results in the past against mobile QBs. And they have to balance getting a pass rush with keeping contain, especially at the left DE position where Wilson really likes to roll to his right. The Bears have played straight up most of the year with 27 of their 30 sacks coming from the DLine. But I wouldn't mind seeing the rookie QB blitzed on occasion with either edge rushes (i.e. CB, S, nickel blitz) or the typical double A-gap blitz by Urlacher and Briggs (or a standing McClellin) with Peppers sitting outside the pocket to catch him if he flushes. I expect the defense to be healthy with Briggs and Tillman both ready to go by Sunday, though neither practiced today.
On offense, the injuries are a little worrisome. Another week, another OL change. This one forced due to an injury by a Jared Allen cheapshot. Forte and Hester are also hurting this week. In years past, I would be devastated by the prospect of Forte missing a game. But at this point, the Bears need to get the passing game going and Cutler is going to be the deciding factor of whether they get to a Superbowl or not. Bush should be fine in the short term running the ball and being a target out of the backfield. Back to the OL...it looks like Carimi will get his first NFL start at RG. I expect a Seahawks team who doesn't mind blitzing to do a lot to try to confuse the kid playing out of position. I'm expecting blitzes right at him. I'm expecting T/E stunts to try to get Carimi to miss an assignment. With a new RT next to Gabe, communication will be key. A lot of TE and RB chipping help will be sent to the right side. That could leave J'Marcus Webb on speedster, Bruce Irvin. Irvin presents some of the same problems that Aldon Smith provided for the Bears in San Francisco. He's a long-armed speed rusher that can get the edge in a hurry. The Bears have to account for him.
On the outside, there are going to be more tough matchups for the Bears. The Seahawks probably have the league's best secondary. Seattle isn't going to be afraid to leave Browner and Sherman alone on Marshall and bring some heat on Cutler. When they don't blitz, they will likely have either of their 6'3" CBs mentioned above, with 6'3" Kam Chancellor over the top. That's a coverage the Bears have seen plenty of with Marshall, but have never seen it with 2 guys that are his height. Seattle is going to try to make Cutler throw the ball to someone else, and nobody else for the Bears has consistently shown up on a weekly basis. I'd like to see Sanzenbacher get in the mix some from the slot as he could create problems for the Hawks there if they focus a lot on Marshall. We briefly saw Evan Rodriguez and Matt Spaeth get some love vs. the Vikings, and they are going to need to be involved again. The checkdown to whatever RB is playing will also be a necessary weapon. But most of all, Tice has to call the right plays to allow this team to have success against a tough defense. Last week, we saw a little bit of it with Cutler on the move a little bit. We also saw some slants and crossing routes that I've been calling for. No matter how good the CB is, no CB in the NFL can guard a WR running laterally in man coverage for a long period of time. Anyone not named Marshall isn't likely to catch anything outside of the numbers this weekend, so the middle of the field has to be active.
As I said, I don't like this game very much on paper. I think the Bears have a slight edge on defense with the ability to get turnovers. And I think the Bears typically have an edge on offense. But injuries are a big equalizer. Hester and Spencer are already ruled out. Jeffery's out. Carimi is playing RG for the first time, maybe in his life. A new RT is playing against a couple solid edge rushers. Forte is not 100%. The Seahawks are also a very desperate team at this point. They are in a log jam for the last wildcard spot and winning this game would go a long way toward giving them that spot. And they have to show they can win a road game. But clearly this is a winnable game for the Bears. Losing it won't kill them, as they still have 3 winnable games out of 4, and get the Packers at home. But a win, and the playoffs are a near lock, and at that point the Bears would be looking at the possibility of a 1st round bye.
A lot of the faces are different for Seattle's offense, but not much has changed overall. Russell Wilson is a similar player to Tavaris Jackson, who the Bears faced last season. Still have Lynch at RB, Tate at WR, Miller at TE, and Robinson at FB. Only difference (other than a similar QB) is Sidney Rice instead of Mike Williams at the other WR. Like Jackson did in the game last year, Wilson will spread the ball around to a variety of targets. In 11 games, Wilson has targeted at least 9 different receivers in 8 of those. While the Bears typically do a pretty decent job at taking away a team's top option not named Steve Smith (Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson for example this year), they have struggled in the last few years when a team has a variety of guys they can throw to. Not that Seattle has anybody that strikes fear into defenses, but they can put several respectable receiving options on the field at the same time to give the Bears a lot to have to worry about.
The Bears have typically had success against Marshawn Lynch, holding him to just 88 yards on 39 carries in 3 career games. I expect more of the same this week. But where the defense has to step up is keeping Russell Wilson in the pocket. It's no secret, Wilson is short and has trouble seeing over his OL. It's also no secret that he can really move and can throw well out of the pocket, often improvising plays on the fly. The Bears have had mixed results in the past against mobile QBs. And they have to balance getting a pass rush with keeping contain, especially at the left DE position where Wilson really likes to roll to his right. The Bears have played straight up most of the year with 27 of their 30 sacks coming from the DLine. But I wouldn't mind seeing the rookie QB blitzed on occasion with either edge rushes (i.e. CB, S, nickel blitz) or the typical double A-gap blitz by Urlacher and Briggs (or a standing McClellin) with Peppers sitting outside the pocket to catch him if he flushes. I expect the defense to be healthy with Briggs and Tillman both ready to go by Sunday, though neither practiced today.
On offense, the injuries are a little worrisome. Another week, another OL change. This one forced due to an injury by a Jared Allen cheapshot. Forte and Hester are also hurting this week. In years past, I would be devastated by the prospect of Forte missing a game. But at this point, the Bears need to get the passing game going and Cutler is going to be the deciding factor of whether they get to a Superbowl or not. Bush should be fine in the short term running the ball and being a target out of the backfield. Back to the OL...it looks like Carimi will get his first NFL start at RG. I expect a Seahawks team who doesn't mind blitzing to do a lot to try to confuse the kid playing out of position. I'm expecting blitzes right at him. I'm expecting T/E stunts to try to get Carimi to miss an assignment. With a new RT next to Gabe, communication will be key. A lot of TE and RB chipping help will be sent to the right side. That could leave J'Marcus Webb on speedster, Bruce Irvin. Irvin presents some of the same problems that Aldon Smith provided for the Bears in San Francisco. He's a long-armed speed rusher that can get the edge in a hurry. The Bears have to account for him.
On the outside, there are going to be more tough matchups for the Bears. The Seahawks probably have the league's best secondary. Seattle isn't going to be afraid to leave Browner and Sherman alone on Marshall and bring some heat on Cutler. When they don't blitz, they will likely have either of their 6'3" CBs mentioned above, with 6'3" Kam Chancellor over the top. That's a coverage the Bears have seen plenty of with Marshall, but have never seen it with 2 guys that are his height. Seattle is going to try to make Cutler throw the ball to someone else, and nobody else for the Bears has consistently shown up on a weekly basis. I'd like to see Sanzenbacher get in the mix some from the slot as he could create problems for the Hawks there if they focus a lot on Marshall. We briefly saw Evan Rodriguez and Matt Spaeth get some love vs. the Vikings, and they are going to need to be involved again. The checkdown to whatever RB is playing will also be a necessary weapon. But most of all, Tice has to call the right plays to allow this team to have success against a tough defense. Last week, we saw a little bit of it with Cutler on the move a little bit. We also saw some slants and crossing routes that I've been calling for. No matter how good the CB is, no CB in the NFL can guard a WR running laterally in man coverage for a long period of time. Anyone not named Marshall isn't likely to catch anything outside of the numbers this weekend, so the middle of the field has to be active.
As I said, I don't like this game very much on paper. I think the Bears have a slight edge on defense with the ability to get turnovers. And I think the Bears typically have an edge on offense. But injuries are a big equalizer. Hester and Spencer are already ruled out. Jeffery's out. Carimi is playing RG for the first time, maybe in his life. A new RT is playing against a couple solid edge rushers. Forte is not 100%. The Seahawks are also a very desperate team at this point. They are in a log jam for the last wildcard spot and winning this game would go a long way toward giving them that spot. And they have to show they can win a road game. But clearly this is a winnable game for the Bears. Losing it won't kill them, as they still have 3 winnable games out of 4, and get the Packers at home. But a win, and the playoffs are a near lock, and at that point the Bears would be looking at the possibility of a 1st round bye.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Week 12, BEARS vs. Vikings, Game Preview
Ugh. Another OL debacle. Another backup quarterback failure. This time the defense joins the party and can't stop anyone. But the Niners loss isn't on the D. It's unrealistic to expect them to hold every team under 14 points while scoring a TD themselves. At some point, the offense needs to get it going.
About that offense....it's pretty ugly right now. But on the bright side, there are a couple positives. Jay Cutler is probably going to be back this Sunday. And finally there are some changes on the OL. Chilo Rachal was terrible and has been benched and basically cut after leaving the team facility in anger after hearing that doing your job poorly actually leads to losing your job. Also appears that Gabe Carimi lost the coin toss and will be replaced by journeyman, Jonathan Scott. At this point....it can't be any worse, right? On the downside, the Bears have lost Alshon Jeffery again, after just 1 week back, to arthoscopic knee surgery. However, if Cutler is back, this is the time the Bears offense needs to get it going. The last time the Vikings played, their pass D allowed 12 catches for 207 yards to Calvin Johnson. Not that I'm expecting the same from Brandon Marshall, but the Vikings are probably going to try to play Harrison Smith over the top to essentially double cover him. If Mike Tice has any ability as an offensive coordinator whatsoever (and it's debatable whether he does or not) the Bears will get Marshall going on some crossing routes to the middle of the field. But they also have to take advantage of one of the Vikings best run defenders being outside of the tackle box by running and throwing the ball to Forte, to force the Vikes D to leave Marshall 1-on-1 on the outside, where he is a big matchup problem, even with Antoine Winfield playing at a high level this season. This would be a good week to get Devin Hester going as for whatever reason, he has really dominated the Vikings in his career. In 9 games vs. Minnesota (on offense) he has 23 catches for 384 yards and 5 TDs. Not eyepopping numbers but he's had more success vs. the Vikes than he's had vs. any other team. Minnesota has also had trouble this year with their LBs in coverage as RBs and TEs have had a lot of success in the passing game against them. It's time to get Forte back into the passing game, and give Evan Rodriguez a little more action.
On defense, it's not really a mystery what the Bears need to do. They gotta stop Adrian Peterson. The Bears have struggled in the past vs. Peterson, but it hasn't been from being beaten by the Vikings OL. Peterson's big games vs. the Bears have come when they haven't tackled well. The Bears gotta get 11 guys to the ball and bring him down on first or 2nd contact. With Percy Harvin looking like he's not going to go this week, the Bears pass D gets a little break. The Vikings will use a variety of receivers without Harvin, and while none of them should scare the Bears, they do have a few guys that can really take the top off of the defense. Jenkins, Wright, Aromashodu, and Simpson will all get looks deep at some point. The Bears DBs have done a pretty good job though this year not allowing much down the field. They've also done a pretty good job of trusting the front 6 or 7 (depending on if in nickel or not) to make tackles in the run game and staying with the called coverage.
With Cutler and the home field advantage, the Bears should be able to win this game against a Vikings team that is 1-3 on the road this year. But to do so, they have to tackle Peterson on 1st down. Force Christian Ponder into obvious passing situations and then get after an OL that has allowed its share of sacks this year. Ponder also has had his fair share of turnovers, but when he has been mistake free, his team has won. If the defense gets a turnover early and the offense can actually try scoring early for a change, the Vikings won't be able to comeback on the Bears D.
About that offense....it's pretty ugly right now. But on the bright side, there are a couple positives. Jay Cutler is probably going to be back this Sunday. And finally there are some changes on the OL. Chilo Rachal was terrible and has been benched and basically cut after leaving the team facility in anger after hearing that doing your job poorly actually leads to losing your job. Also appears that Gabe Carimi lost the coin toss and will be replaced by journeyman, Jonathan Scott. At this point....it can't be any worse, right? On the downside, the Bears have lost Alshon Jeffery again, after just 1 week back, to arthoscopic knee surgery. However, if Cutler is back, this is the time the Bears offense needs to get it going. The last time the Vikings played, their pass D allowed 12 catches for 207 yards to Calvin Johnson. Not that I'm expecting the same from Brandon Marshall, but the Vikings are probably going to try to play Harrison Smith over the top to essentially double cover him. If Mike Tice has any ability as an offensive coordinator whatsoever (and it's debatable whether he does or not) the Bears will get Marshall going on some crossing routes to the middle of the field. But they also have to take advantage of one of the Vikings best run defenders being outside of the tackle box by running and throwing the ball to Forte, to force the Vikes D to leave Marshall 1-on-1 on the outside, where he is a big matchup problem, even with Antoine Winfield playing at a high level this season. This would be a good week to get Devin Hester going as for whatever reason, he has really dominated the Vikings in his career. In 9 games vs. Minnesota (on offense) he has 23 catches for 384 yards and 5 TDs. Not eyepopping numbers but he's had more success vs. the Vikes than he's had vs. any other team. Minnesota has also had trouble this year with their LBs in coverage as RBs and TEs have had a lot of success in the passing game against them. It's time to get Forte back into the passing game, and give Evan Rodriguez a little more action.
On defense, it's not really a mystery what the Bears need to do. They gotta stop Adrian Peterson. The Bears have struggled in the past vs. Peterson, but it hasn't been from being beaten by the Vikings OL. Peterson's big games vs. the Bears have come when they haven't tackled well. The Bears gotta get 11 guys to the ball and bring him down on first or 2nd contact. With Percy Harvin looking like he's not going to go this week, the Bears pass D gets a little break. The Vikings will use a variety of receivers without Harvin, and while none of them should scare the Bears, they do have a few guys that can really take the top off of the defense. Jenkins, Wright, Aromashodu, and Simpson will all get looks deep at some point. The Bears DBs have done a pretty good job though this year not allowing much down the field. They've also done a pretty good job of trusting the front 6 or 7 (depending on if in nickel or not) to make tackles in the run game and staying with the called coverage.
With Cutler and the home field advantage, the Bears should be able to win this game against a Vikings team that is 1-3 on the road this year. But to do so, they have to tackle Peterson on 1st down. Force Christian Ponder into obvious passing situations and then get after an OL that has allowed its share of sacks this year. Ponder also has had his fair share of turnovers, but when he has been mistake free, his team has won. If the defense gets a turnover early and the offense can actually try scoring early for a change, the Vikings won't be able to comeback on the Bears D.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Week 11, BEARS @ Niners, Game Preview
Well, Sunday Night was a disaster. Lost a game, lost a quarterback, lost in my fantasy league due to Matt Forte and Robbie Gould's inability to get me 4 more points. But a 7-2 record is still pretty good (6-4 in this fantasy league after 3 straight single digits losses, if you care). Actually it's still better than every team in the NFL except the Falcons and Texans.
About those Texans...on the positive side, I feel like the Bears outplayed the Texans. They couldn't run the ball at all and turned the ball over way more than anyone would have liked, but Sunday surely didn't prove that the Bears can't hang with the NFLs elite teams. If the normally sure-handed Brandon Marshall and Forte make (difficult but make-able) catches, if the refs could correctly call a pass interference or review a replay that showed Cutler's back foot halfway behind the line of scrimmage, or if Kellen Davis didn't exist.....the Bears are an 8-1 team right now.
However, the Bears did lose and are facing another tough game, this time on the road, likely without starting QB, Jay Cutler. But on a positive note, the Bears shouldn't have to do much differently, as far as game planning goes for this week. Like the Texans, the 49ers are a run-heavy offense that relies on time of possession, though they're not as strong as Houston in that area. Like the Texans, the Niners rely very heavily on throwing the ball to their #1 WR and the TE, though they use their #2 (Manningham) more than Houston. Like the Texans, San Francisco uses a 3-4 defense to keep opponents off the board. They also are very strong against the run and have a dynamic pass rushing talent that the Bears have to keep track of at all times. But unlike Houston, the Niners are actually much more than an "efficient" running team. SF actually has been gashing team's run defenses to the tune of a league leading 5.6 yards per carry. Frank Gore is having the best season since he was a 23-year old, first time starting RB in his 2nd year in the NFL. That being said, they have not faced a run defense like the Bears this season. So, I believe that if they are going to run, it's going to have to be like the Texans' formula to run the ball 30+ times and expect less than 4 yards a pop.
As for the passing game, I have no qualms about Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings being able to almost shutdown Crabtree and Manningham on the outside. I do worry a lot about Vernon Davis and still have flashbacks of Randy Moss running thru the Bears secondary wearing a purple jersey. But Moss's effect should be minimal and Davis hasn't exactly been very dominant so far this year. So, I expect more of the same defense from last week, and all year really.
On offense, unfortunately, I'm also expecting more of the same. The Niners defense is basically a faster version of the Texans D. I don't expect the Bears patented sweeps with a pulling guard and center will work this week (didn't last week either). Though, I guess it is possible for the Bears to find similar minimal success off RG (Louis) that they did last week vs. Houston.
As for the passing game, the Bears did a lot of max protection against Houston's pass rush. Kept at least 1 TE and the RB in on almost all passing downs. As a result, Cutler had almost no pressure in the pocket all night. Of course, as luck would have it, he takes a huge (and very illegal) hit outside the pocket that leaves him questionable for this game. The downside of the max protection is that Mike Tice's play designs were frankly, terrible. On the majority of the plays, Forte was left in to block and stayed in to block. That left the #2 TE (Spaeth or Adams) as the checkdown target who leaked out of the backfield late. In fact, those check downs (Forte included) led to a whopping 8 yards on 6 catches between the 3 players. Unlike the Texans though, the Niners don't get anything from their D-line in the way of pass rush. The SF front 3 has combined for 1/2 a sack this year. Actually, Aldon Smith has 9.5 of the Niners 17 sacks as a team. So, honestly I'd like to see extra help given to whomever is lined up across from Smith. If that's Forte, it needs to be a solid chip and then get him out in a route. If that's a TE, Forte needs to be out in a route from the snap. The rest of the Niners haven't shown enough pass rush ability to give them too much attention. And at this point, the focus needs to be on moving the ball thru the air as well as possible. Getting Alshon Jeffery back should help immensely as, hopefully, it gives the Bears another target besides Brandon Marshall to throw to. While Brandon has been amazing this year and everything Bears fans could have hoped for, if a team can shut him down (the way GB did) the Bears cannot move the ball at all.
I honestly don't know what to expect in this game. Like last week, I don't expect these teams to rack up the yardage and big plays against each other. I do expect a few more points because of better weather, but maybe a 17-13 game instead of 13-6. But for some reason, I am very confident in the Bears in this game. Hester has seemed to get it going on special teams the last couple weeks, and I think he would have done a lot more damage on a non-disgusting field last weekend. I like the Bears edge in special teams. I love Cutler, but I'm interested to see Campbell play as he throws an excellent deep ball...which could be a big weapon in a game of evenly matched teams. I like the Bears to NOT turn the ball over 4 times, which has been the only way they have lost this year. And for whatever it is worth, I like the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on MNF under Lovie (just 1-6 on Sunday Nights). Most Bears fans were hoping for a split in these 2 games, it could still happen. It would put the Bears at 8-2 and in the driver's seat for a 1st round bye in the NFC.
About those Texans...on the positive side, I feel like the Bears outplayed the Texans. They couldn't run the ball at all and turned the ball over way more than anyone would have liked, but Sunday surely didn't prove that the Bears can't hang with the NFLs elite teams. If the normally sure-handed Brandon Marshall and Forte make (difficult but make-able) catches, if the refs could correctly call a pass interference or review a replay that showed Cutler's back foot halfway behind the line of scrimmage, or if Kellen Davis didn't exist.....the Bears are an 8-1 team right now.
However, the Bears did lose and are facing another tough game, this time on the road, likely without starting QB, Jay Cutler. But on a positive note, the Bears shouldn't have to do much differently, as far as game planning goes for this week. Like the Texans, the 49ers are a run-heavy offense that relies on time of possession, though they're not as strong as Houston in that area. Like the Texans, the Niners rely very heavily on throwing the ball to their #1 WR and the TE, though they use their #2 (Manningham) more than Houston. Like the Texans, San Francisco uses a 3-4 defense to keep opponents off the board. They also are very strong against the run and have a dynamic pass rushing talent that the Bears have to keep track of at all times. But unlike Houston, the Niners are actually much more than an "efficient" running team. SF actually has been gashing team's run defenses to the tune of a league leading 5.6 yards per carry. Frank Gore is having the best season since he was a 23-year old, first time starting RB in his 2nd year in the NFL. That being said, they have not faced a run defense like the Bears this season. So, I believe that if they are going to run, it's going to have to be like the Texans' formula to run the ball 30+ times and expect less than 4 yards a pop.
As for the passing game, I have no qualms about Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings being able to almost shutdown Crabtree and Manningham on the outside. I do worry a lot about Vernon Davis and still have flashbacks of Randy Moss running thru the Bears secondary wearing a purple jersey. But Moss's effect should be minimal and Davis hasn't exactly been very dominant so far this year. So, I expect more of the same defense from last week, and all year really.
On offense, unfortunately, I'm also expecting more of the same. The Niners defense is basically a faster version of the Texans D. I don't expect the Bears patented sweeps with a pulling guard and center will work this week (didn't last week either). Though, I guess it is possible for the Bears to find similar minimal success off RG (Louis) that they did last week vs. Houston.
As for the passing game, the Bears did a lot of max protection against Houston's pass rush. Kept at least 1 TE and the RB in on almost all passing downs. As a result, Cutler had almost no pressure in the pocket all night. Of course, as luck would have it, he takes a huge (and very illegal) hit outside the pocket that leaves him questionable for this game. The downside of the max protection is that Mike Tice's play designs were frankly, terrible. On the majority of the plays, Forte was left in to block and stayed in to block. That left the #2 TE (Spaeth or Adams) as the checkdown target who leaked out of the backfield late. In fact, those check downs (Forte included) led to a whopping 8 yards on 6 catches between the 3 players. Unlike the Texans though, the Niners don't get anything from their D-line in the way of pass rush. The SF front 3 has combined for 1/2 a sack this year. Actually, Aldon Smith has 9.5 of the Niners 17 sacks as a team. So, honestly I'd like to see extra help given to whomever is lined up across from Smith. If that's Forte, it needs to be a solid chip and then get him out in a route. If that's a TE, Forte needs to be out in a route from the snap. The rest of the Niners haven't shown enough pass rush ability to give them too much attention. And at this point, the focus needs to be on moving the ball thru the air as well as possible. Getting Alshon Jeffery back should help immensely as, hopefully, it gives the Bears another target besides Brandon Marshall to throw to. While Brandon has been amazing this year and everything Bears fans could have hoped for, if a team can shut him down (the way GB did) the Bears cannot move the ball at all.
I honestly don't know what to expect in this game. Like last week, I don't expect these teams to rack up the yardage and big plays against each other. I do expect a few more points because of better weather, but maybe a 17-13 game instead of 13-6. But for some reason, I am very confident in the Bears in this game. Hester has seemed to get it going on special teams the last couple weeks, and I think he would have done a lot more damage on a non-disgusting field last weekend. I like the Bears edge in special teams. I love Cutler, but I'm interested to see Campbell play as he throws an excellent deep ball...which could be a big weapon in a game of evenly matched teams. I like the Bears to NOT turn the ball over 4 times, which has been the only way they have lost this year. And for whatever it is worth, I like the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on MNF under Lovie (just 1-6 on Sunday Nights). Most Bears fans were hoping for a split in these 2 games, it could still happen. It would put the Bears at 8-2 and in the driver's seat for a 1st round bye in the NFC.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Week 10, BEARS vs. Texans, Game Preview
Well, halfway thru the season and the Bears are in the midst of almost a best case scenario. 7-1 with the league's best point differential. But frankly, this is where the Bears should be with the schedule they've had. But the cupcakes are all done. The Bears don't face another team with a losing record right now until Week 16 in Arizona. And they open the 3rd quarter of the season with a tough, mirror image matchup vs. the Houston Texans.
A matchup I'm really looking forward to when the Texans have the ball is Charles "Peanut" Tillman vs. Andre Johnson. The last time these 2 teams met was Week 17, the 2008 Bears were 9-6 and needed a win in Houston to get into the playoffs. But Johnson, primarily covered by Tillman, went off for 10 catches, 148 yards and 2 TDs, including ripping a TD pass away from the Bears big, physical CB. But that was then, this is now. Johnson has been slowed down by injuries and isn't the best WR in the league the way he was in '08, but he's still pretty good. Tillman was pretty good then, but was not the potential defensive MVP back then either. Not that I'm expecting Peanut to force Johnson to fumble 4 times this game, but it should be a really good matchup with Tillman having won a similar matchup already this year vs. Calvin Johnson. If the Bears can come out on the right side of this matchup, the Texans don't have too much else to go to. Their 2nd WR is Kevin Walter, and even with the size advantage, I'll take Tim Jennings in that matchup, especially if Tillman can allow the Bears to give him safety help. The Texans get almost nothing else from any other WR, with only 8 catches from the rest of the WR depth chart. The key will be how the Bears handle the combo of FB-James Casey, and TEs Garrett Graham and Owen Daniels, who may just be Schaub's favorite target. Chris Conte looked very good in coverage against the Titans TEs, and if he can carry that over to Week 10, it's going to be tough for Houston to throw the ball against the Bears, especially down the field. Arian Foster has been a good receiver in the past, but hasn't done much out of the backfield so far in 2012.
Speaking of Foster.....for a team that is considered a pretty good running team, the Texans actually aren't anything special running the ball. While the Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards per game, they are only averaging a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry, good for 18th in the league. That's in the same class as teams like the Colts, Bengals and Lions. They also don't break a ton of big runs. Arian Foster only has 4 runs of 20+ yards, included in his league leading 192 total carries. In comparison, Forte has 3 runs over 20 in 109 carries. What Houston does do is hit you with volume in the run game. The Texans lead the league in time of possession. Because of all the 2-tight sets and sets they run with a FB, the Texans have been able to get teams to commit a lot of bodies into the box, creating playaction heaven for Schaub. The Bears, however, are the league's best team vs. the playaction, allowing just 45% completions after run fakes. This is mainly due to the discipline and quickness of the Bears LBs to react, and also the fact that the CBs and safeties don't have to be in a hurry to help the front 7 stop the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans have their own defensive POTY candidate, JJ Watt. An interesting matchup will be Gabe Carimi vs. Watt, in a battle of former Wisconsin teammates. Hopefully, Carimi learned a few things in practice on how to block Watt, because nobody else has been able to. And Carimi, honestly hasn't been able to hold off many pass rushers so far this year. But Carimi will mostly see Watt in the run game (lines up over the RT in run downs). In the passing game, Watt will see a lot of Lance Louis, as he typically lines up at more of a 4-3 DT in their nickel package. I kind of like this matchup. Louis will get pretty physical with him and won't be pushed back into the pocket the way Watt has done most of his opponents this year. The Bears will still have a lot of trouble, though, blocking the edge rush. And with the Texans being one of the toughest teams to run on, the quick passing game is going to be the Bears best hope for moving the ball. Jonathan Joseph is very beatable, especially when you're talking about Brandon Marshall on the opposite end. I also like Bennett vs. their nickel, Brice McCain, but that's going to require time to throw to fully utilize him.
Long story short, nobody's going to be lighting up the scoreboard Sunday night. The Bears offense has had it's struggles. The Houston offense is efficient, but doesn't have many weapons. They also don't make many mistakes allowing the Bears D to take advantage either. The key for the Bears is going to be to play mistake free football. None of the stupid false starts on the OL. Cutler has to protect that ball when he gets pressured, which he will often. And the Bears have to stay disciplined in their gap defense and in their run/pass keys during playaction situations. Where the Bears do have a huge advantage is special teams. Houston is middle of the pack in kickoff coverage, but have allowed the 2nd most KO returns in a touchback heavy era of football. They are also bottom 10 in punt return average allowed, and have not faced a returner like Devin Hester. So, in a game where all else looks to be pretty equal, the Bears ability to make a special teams play could be the difference in the game.
A matchup I'm really looking forward to when the Texans have the ball is Charles "Peanut" Tillman vs. Andre Johnson. The last time these 2 teams met was Week 17, the 2008 Bears were 9-6 and needed a win in Houston to get into the playoffs. But Johnson, primarily covered by Tillman, went off for 10 catches, 148 yards and 2 TDs, including ripping a TD pass away from the Bears big, physical CB. But that was then, this is now. Johnson has been slowed down by injuries and isn't the best WR in the league the way he was in '08, but he's still pretty good. Tillman was pretty good then, but was not the potential defensive MVP back then either. Not that I'm expecting Peanut to force Johnson to fumble 4 times this game, but it should be a really good matchup with Tillman having won a similar matchup already this year vs. Calvin Johnson. If the Bears can come out on the right side of this matchup, the Texans don't have too much else to go to. Their 2nd WR is Kevin Walter, and even with the size advantage, I'll take Tim Jennings in that matchup, especially if Tillman can allow the Bears to give him safety help. The Texans get almost nothing else from any other WR, with only 8 catches from the rest of the WR depth chart. The key will be how the Bears handle the combo of FB-James Casey, and TEs Garrett Graham and Owen Daniels, who may just be Schaub's favorite target. Chris Conte looked very good in coverage against the Titans TEs, and if he can carry that over to Week 10, it's going to be tough for Houston to throw the ball against the Bears, especially down the field. Arian Foster has been a good receiver in the past, but hasn't done much out of the backfield so far in 2012.
Speaking of Foster.....for a team that is considered a pretty good running team, the Texans actually aren't anything special running the ball. While the Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards per game, they are only averaging a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry, good for 18th in the league. That's in the same class as teams like the Colts, Bengals and Lions. They also don't break a ton of big runs. Arian Foster only has 4 runs of 20+ yards, included in his league leading 192 total carries. In comparison, Forte has 3 runs over 20 in 109 carries. What Houston does do is hit you with volume in the run game. The Texans lead the league in time of possession. Because of all the 2-tight sets and sets they run with a FB, the Texans have been able to get teams to commit a lot of bodies into the box, creating playaction heaven for Schaub. The Bears, however, are the league's best team vs. the playaction, allowing just 45% completions after run fakes. This is mainly due to the discipline and quickness of the Bears LBs to react, and also the fact that the CBs and safeties don't have to be in a hurry to help the front 7 stop the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans have their own defensive POTY candidate, JJ Watt. An interesting matchup will be Gabe Carimi vs. Watt, in a battle of former Wisconsin teammates. Hopefully, Carimi learned a few things in practice on how to block Watt, because nobody else has been able to. And Carimi, honestly hasn't been able to hold off many pass rushers so far this year. But Carimi will mostly see Watt in the run game (lines up over the RT in run downs). In the passing game, Watt will see a lot of Lance Louis, as he typically lines up at more of a 4-3 DT in their nickel package. I kind of like this matchup. Louis will get pretty physical with him and won't be pushed back into the pocket the way Watt has done most of his opponents this year. The Bears will still have a lot of trouble, though, blocking the edge rush. And with the Texans being one of the toughest teams to run on, the quick passing game is going to be the Bears best hope for moving the ball. Jonathan Joseph is very beatable, especially when you're talking about Brandon Marshall on the opposite end. I also like Bennett vs. their nickel, Brice McCain, but that's going to require time to throw to fully utilize him.
Long story short, nobody's going to be lighting up the scoreboard Sunday night. The Bears offense has had it's struggles. The Houston offense is efficient, but doesn't have many weapons. They also don't make many mistakes allowing the Bears D to take advantage either. The key for the Bears is going to be to play mistake free football. None of the stupid false starts on the OL. Cutler has to protect that ball when he gets pressured, which he will often. And the Bears have to stay disciplined in their gap defense and in their run/pass keys during playaction situations. Where the Bears do have a huge advantage is special teams. Houston is middle of the pack in kickoff coverage, but have allowed the 2nd most KO returns in a touchback heavy era of football. They are also bottom 10 in punt return average allowed, and have not faced a returner like Devin Hester. So, in a game where all else looks to be pretty equal, the Bears ability to make a special teams play could be the difference in the game.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Week 9, BEARS @ Titans, Game Preview
Well, last week I started off with talking about how good the defense has been....and they proceeded to give up over 400 yards of total offense to the struggling Panthers. So naturally, this week I'll start with how bad the offense has been.
Despite being a respectable 8th in the league in points scored, after this week's performance vs. Carolina, the Bears are now 26th in total offense. And while being the 6th least productive offense is bad enough, the Bears are that far down in the rankings despite being 9th in the league in rushing. Which means, the passing game has been really bad. Even worse, the passing game has been bad despite boasting the 3rd most productive WR in the NFL (and #1 in the NFC), Brandon Marshall. The offensive line that looked decent giving up 3 sacks in the 2 games before the bye, has given up 11 in the last two, including 6 in the 1st half Sunday when Carolina was trying. The Bears are now 2nd in the league in sacks allowed per game, after making it to respectability after the GB game.
But I don't want to put it all on the OL. The playcalling has been Martz-esque, the receivers have had drops, and frankly, the quarterback play hasn't been as good as it's needed to be. First off, Mike Tice has proven that he should not be anything more than an OL coach. Matt Forte isn't getting enough touches, despite getting 4.6 yards per carry. In addition, Michael Bush has only touched the ball 16 times in the last 3 games after being a vital part of the offense early on. There's been too many deep drops and when there is a quick throw, nobody other than Marshall can get open. Honestly though, the quick slant or out to Marshall been the best offense the Bears have had. But overall, Tice has called a very boring route tree, with very few wrinkles to get guys open. Marshall has been open based on pure talent, but guys like Hester and Bennett need some help. I'd like to see more rub routes, crossing routes, double moves, or something to get other guys open. The Bears are still very susceptible to a team that can execute the Packers gameplan to keep the ball away from Brandon Marshall. I'd also like to see more screens to Forte to slow down the pass rush. I'd like to see more of Hester in the slot, as he's clearly shown he's not much of an outside WR. He needs space, but cannot beat press coverage to save his life.
As for Cutler, you won't find a bigger fan of him than me. Love the guy. His 4th quarter vs. the Panthers was masterful and confident. In fact, he leads the league with a 132 QB rating in the 4th quarter, but he combats that by being worst in the league in the opening quarter. Jay needs to make a conscious effort to not let himself get taken out of his game early. I hate to feed into the Chicago media's BS, but he needs to be stronger mentally early in games. Cutler got sacked on the first play of the Colts game....throws pick 6 next drive, then the Bears have to spend a couple drives with short, quick passes to get Jay comfortable again. Got sacked on the 1st play again in Week 2, never really settled down in that game as when the offense was unleashed he threw INTs or got sacked in obvious passing downs. The Bears justifiably dumbed down the offense in the Detroit game with Cutler having injured ribs. But we saw the same thing happen on Sunday after 6 first half sacks. Not sure if it's on Cutler or Tice/Martz, but the last few years, when Jay has taken some hits or made mistakes with the ball, the playcalling has gone to near middle school levels for a drive or two afterward. While I understand the point of simplifying things, Jay Cutler is a good QB. If the Bears are going to throw quick slants and outs, they could have Jason Campbell out there. This is not to say I think the Bears should keep letting Jay take 7 step drops and get hit all day, but you gotta mix it up. Throw some quick slants early to set up the double move. Get the run game going to set up the playaction. Pass blocking isn't the only way to stop a pass rush. Giving them something else to think about besides getting after the QB is also a key. Don't wait until the OL proves they can't block the front 4 before you give them some help. Don't max protect leaving Marshall and 1 other target to get open vs. 7 pass defenders.
As for the game at hand, if there's a game the offense can snap out of it.....the Titans are REALLY bad on defense. That being said, they have played New England, Detroit, Houston, and Pittsburgh, along with getting San Diego and Minnesota when they were hot offensively. But they've also given up over 900 yards to the Bills and Colts the last 2 weeks. They've allowed teams to run the ball at will, they've allowed yards to WRs, TEs, RBs in the passing game. QBs have a whopping 105.8 passer rating against them. If the Bears can't get the offense going this week, it's going to have to wait even longer with Houston and San Francisco next on the schedule. Whereas I pointed out that the Panthers were not a team you could beat down the field (Cutler INT when he went deep, picked them apart when got rid of the ball quickly)...everything should be at the Bears disposal vs. the Titans.
On the other side of the ball, I actually do worry about the defense a little in this one. The Titans actually have a lot of weapons. Nate Washington has deep speed. Kenny Britt is a big target. Kendall Wright is an up-and-coming 1st round pick. I worry about the Bears matching up vs. whoever is in the slot and against the Titans TEs, led by Jared Cook. And the Bears have typically had trouble with speedy RBs, though they faced Chris Johnson as a rookie and gave up 8 yards on 14 carries. But if they aren't disciplined in their gap assignments in the front 7, you could see flashbacks of last year in Detroit when Jahvid Best got loose for a couple huge runs. Also, the Panthers showed that you can dump the ball down all game against the Bears D and force them to make tackles, which sometimes they don't do well. Hasselbeck has a history of being a patient QB that takes what the defense gives him if he doesn't get pressured. Hass has thrown 6 TDs with no INTs in his last 3 games vs. the Bears, though one of those was way back in 2007. So, obviously the key here is to stop the run first, force Tennessee into long passing downs, then getting pressure on Hasselbeck. Not much difference from any other game, but especially important against an elite RB and a 37-year old QB who has never done well vs. a strong pass rush.
I think you could see somewhat of a shootout in this game. If the pass rush doesn't show up, Hasselbeck can pick the D apart, especially in the 2-tight formation with Cook/Stevens. I do think the offense will finally score, and score enough to win this game and end the first half of the season at 7-1, but this is not a gimme game by any means.
Despite being a respectable 8th in the league in points scored, after this week's performance vs. Carolina, the Bears are now 26th in total offense. And while being the 6th least productive offense is bad enough, the Bears are that far down in the rankings despite being 9th in the league in rushing. Which means, the passing game has been really bad. Even worse, the passing game has been bad despite boasting the 3rd most productive WR in the NFL (and #1 in the NFC), Brandon Marshall. The offensive line that looked decent giving up 3 sacks in the 2 games before the bye, has given up 11 in the last two, including 6 in the 1st half Sunday when Carolina was trying. The Bears are now 2nd in the league in sacks allowed per game, after making it to respectability after the GB game.
But I don't want to put it all on the OL. The playcalling has been Martz-esque, the receivers have had drops, and frankly, the quarterback play hasn't been as good as it's needed to be. First off, Mike Tice has proven that he should not be anything more than an OL coach. Matt Forte isn't getting enough touches, despite getting 4.6 yards per carry. In addition, Michael Bush has only touched the ball 16 times in the last 3 games after being a vital part of the offense early on. There's been too many deep drops and when there is a quick throw, nobody other than Marshall can get open. Honestly though, the quick slant or out to Marshall been the best offense the Bears have had. But overall, Tice has called a very boring route tree, with very few wrinkles to get guys open. Marshall has been open based on pure talent, but guys like Hester and Bennett need some help. I'd like to see more rub routes, crossing routes, double moves, or something to get other guys open. The Bears are still very susceptible to a team that can execute the Packers gameplan to keep the ball away from Brandon Marshall. I'd also like to see more screens to Forte to slow down the pass rush. I'd like to see more of Hester in the slot, as he's clearly shown he's not much of an outside WR. He needs space, but cannot beat press coverage to save his life.
As for Cutler, you won't find a bigger fan of him than me. Love the guy. His 4th quarter vs. the Panthers was masterful and confident. In fact, he leads the league with a 132 QB rating in the 4th quarter, but he combats that by being worst in the league in the opening quarter. Jay needs to make a conscious effort to not let himself get taken out of his game early. I hate to feed into the Chicago media's BS, but he needs to be stronger mentally early in games. Cutler got sacked on the first play of the Colts game....throws pick 6 next drive, then the Bears have to spend a couple drives with short, quick passes to get Jay comfortable again. Got sacked on the 1st play again in Week 2, never really settled down in that game as when the offense was unleashed he threw INTs or got sacked in obvious passing downs. The Bears justifiably dumbed down the offense in the Detroit game with Cutler having injured ribs. But we saw the same thing happen on Sunday after 6 first half sacks. Not sure if it's on Cutler or Tice/Martz, but the last few years, when Jay has taken some hits or made mistakes with the ball, the playcalling has gone to near middle school levels for a drive or two afterward. While I understand the point of simplifying things, Jay Cutler is a good QB. If the Bears are going to throw quick slants and outs, they could have Jason Campbell out there. This is not to say I think the Bears should keep letting Jay take 7 step drops and get hit all day, but you gotta mix it up. Throw some quick slants early to set up the double move. Get the run game going to set up the playaction. Pass blocking isn't the only way to stop a pass rush. Giving them something else to think about besides getting after the QB is also a key. Don't wait until the OL proves they can't block the front 4 before you give them some help. Don't max protect leaving Marshall and 1 other target to get open vs. 7 pass defenders.
As for the game at hand, if there's a game the offense can snap out of it.....the Titans are REALLY bad on defense. That being said, they have played New England, Detroit, Houston, and Pittsburgh, along with getting San Diego and Minnesota when they were hot offensively. But they've also given up over 900 yards to the Bills and Colts the last 2 weeks. They've allowed teams to run the ball at will, they've allowed yards to WRs, TEs, RBs in the passing game. QBs have a whopping 105.8 passer rating against them. If the Bears can't get the offense going this week, it's going to have to wait even longer with Houston and San Francisco next on the schedule. Whereas I pointed out that the Panthers were not a team you could beat down the field (Cutler INT when he went deep, picked them apart when got rid of the ball quickly)...everything should be at the Bears disposal vs. the Titans.
On the other side of the ball, I actually do worry about the defense a little in this one. The Titans actually have a lot of weapons. Nate Washington has deep speed. Kenny Britt is a big target. Kendall Wright is an up-and-coming 1st round pick. I worry about the Bears matching up vs. whoever is in the slot and against the Titans TEs, led by Jared Cook. And the Bears have typically had trouble with speedy RBs, though they faced Chris Johnson as a rookie and gave up 8 yards on 14 carries. But if they aren't disciplined in their gap assignments in the front 7, you could see flashbacks of last year in Detroit when Jahvid Best got loose for a couple huge runs. Also, the Panthers showed that you can dump the ball down all game against the Bears D and force them to make tackles, which sometimes they don't do well. Hasselbeck has a history of being a patient QB that takes what the defense gives him if he doesn't get pressured. Hass has thrown 6 TDs with no INTs in his last 3 games vs. the Bears, though one of those was way back in 2007. So, obviously the key here is to stop the run first, force Tennessee into long passing downs, then getting pressure on Hasselbeck. Not much difference from any other game, but especially important against an elite RB and a 37-year old QB who has never done well vs. a strong pass rush.
I think you could see somewhat of a shootout in this game. If the pass rush doesn't show up, Hasselbeck can pick the D apart, especially in the 2-tight formation with Cook/Stevens. I do think the offense will finally score, and score enough to win this game and end the first half of the season at 7-1, but this is not a gimme game by any means.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Week 8- BEARS vs. Panthers, Game Preview
This is probably going to be more of a summary of the first 6 games of the season than a preview of the game to come. But I just have to boast about this defense! The Bears D is doing some ridiculous things so far this season. The Bears defense has allowed 10.7 points per game (taking out a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and a fake FG for TD in Green Bay). The defense has allowed 6 touchdowns this year, while scoring 5 themselves. Of the 58 points the defense has allowed, a whopping 28 of them have come in the last 34 seconds of either the 1st or 2nd half. Meaning, the Bears have allowed 30 total points NOT against a 2-minute drill, when they are predominately playing a "soft" Cover 2 scheme. And while the defense does need to tighten up vs. the hurry up offense, keep in mind that of the 28 late in half points, 8 vs. the Cowboys came with most of the second string defense on the field. Another 3 came on a crazy 56-yard FG by the Rams in Soldier Field.
Having allowed just 10.7 points per game. 71 rush yards allowed per game. On pace for 56 sacks and an astonishing 56 turnovers to match. This Bears defense is on pace to go down as one of the best in NFL history. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bears defense is that they are doing it with Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers as "role" players and not stars. While Peppers gets the attention of 2 blockers nearly every play, he's been about the 6th or 7th most productive player on the defense. Right now, Henry Melton has been the star of the defensive line, leading the team in sacks and the DL in tackles. Israel Idonije has also been more productive than Peppers in terms of stats. On the last level of the defense, Major Wright has been playing at a probowl level, with strong tackling and providing the consistency he and the rest of the revolving door at S couldn't provide in coverage last year. On the subject of "Pro Bowl level play"....in about 10 days from now Charles "Peanut" Tillman will be named the NFC defensive player of the month, to join his teammate, Tim Jennings as the lone winners of that award so far this season. And in the middle, I feel that Lance Briggs has been the best player on the football team. Briggs leads the team in tackles, has 2 INTs, both for TDs. He's 2nd on the team with 6 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles, and he's been a factor in the pass rush with a sack and several pressures. Chris Conte and Stephen Paea look to be coming around. Neither are making the big splash plays that their teammates are, but both are in the right place most of the time. Once the playmaking comes, the Bears will be 11 deep with defensive vultures. And speaking of coming around, Urlacher looks like he is starting to do that. He's making more plays in the backfield every week. He's getting his hands on more throws in the passing game.
As for this game, it's going to provide a challenge for the Bears D. Last year the Bears really struggled with Cam Newton's size and mobility. They were frustrated with his ability to escape the pocket (to throw, not run) and moreso by their inability to get him to the ground after they had their hands on him. But this year, Cam looks a little off and the Bears D looks a LOT hungrier. I think the Bears will be prepared for his strength and mobility and fare much better this time around. Steve Smith has historically given the Bears problems, so it will be interesting to see how they handle him with the CBs playing at such a high level. I'd like to see a similar strategy with Tillman or Jennings pressing him at the line with safety help deep. Force Cam to throw it to someone else, or make a mistake (as he has many times this year) trying to get the ball to Smith.
On offense, the last 2 years the Bears could have beaten Carolina with me at QB. Matt Forte has run against them at will with over 370 yards in the 2 games. But don't expect the same this year. Knowing Forte has destroyed them and that the Bears passing offense has been inconsistent, I expect Carolina to put a lot of effort into stopping the run, and forcing Jay Cutler to beat them with injured ribs. And I'd imagine when they get the Bears into passing situations, they will try to make Cutler beat them by throwing to someone other than Brandon Marshall. Normally, I'd say this is a good chance to get others involved in the passing game, but they aren't good enough to stop Marshall with all the attention anyway. Carolina's pass D has been below average this year, but they haven't been that bad. They play a lot of Cover 2 and have done a good job of not letting WRs get behind them for big plays. What they have allowed though is teams to dink and dunk them all the way down the field. Look for the Bears to throw a lot on first down, especially with safe throws and screens to the outside or to Forte as the checkdown. This will eventually open up the run game for Forte, or beat the Panthers into submission.
This is the game to get the Bears passing game on a roll. If the Bears can get the passing game going, with a top 10 rushing attack and the league's best defense, this team is a Superbowl favorite, not just a contender. If the offense gets going, frankly, this game shouldn't be close.
Having allowed just 10.7 points per game. 71 rush yards allowed per game. On pace for 56 sacks and an astonishing 56 turnovers to match. This Bears defense is on pace to go down as one of the best in NFL history. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bears defense is that they are doing it with Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers as "role" players and not stars. While Peppers gets the attention of 2 blockers nearly every play, he's been about the 6th or 7th most productive player on the defense. Right now, Henry Melton has been the star of the defensive line, leading the team in sacks and the DL in tackles. Israel Idonije has also been more productive than Peppers in terms of stats. On the last level of the defense, Major Wright has been playing at a probowl level, with strong tackling and providing the consistency he and the rest of the revolving door at S couldn't provide in coverage last year. On the subject of "Pro Bowl level play"....in about 10 days from now Charles "Peanut" Tillman will be named the NFC defensive player of the month, to join his teammate, Tim Jennings as the lone winners of that award so far this season. And in the middle, I feel that Lance Briggs has been the best player on the football team. Briggs leads the team in tackles, has 2 INTs, both for TDs. He's 2nd on the team with 6 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles, and he's been a factor in the pass rush with a sack and several pressures. Chris Conte and Stephen Paea look to be coming around. Neither are making the big splash plays that their teammates are, but both are in the right place most of the time. Once the playmaking comes, the Bears will be 11 deep with defensive vultures. And speaking of coming around, Urlacher looks like he is starting to do that. He's making more plays in the backfield every week. He's getting his hands on more throws in the passing game.
As for this game, it's going to provide a challenge for the Bears D. Last year the Bears really struggled with Cam Newton's size and mobility. They were frustrated with his ability to escape the pocket (to throw, not run) and moreso by their inability to get him to the ground after they had their hands on him. But this year, Cam looks a little off and the Bears D looks a LOT hungrier. I think the Bears will be prepared for his strength and mobility and fare much better this time around. Steve Smith has historically given the Bears problems, so it will be interesting to see how they handle him with the CBs playing at such a high level. I'd like to see a similar strategy with Tillman or Jennings pressing him at the line with safety help deep. Force Cam to throw it to someone else, or make a mistake (as he has many times this year) trying to get the ball to Smith.
On offense, the last 2 years the Bears could have beaten Carolina with me at QB. Matt Forte has run against them at will with over 370 yards in the 2 games. But don't expect the same this year. Knowing Forte has destroyed them and that the Bears passing offense has been inconsistent, I expect Carolina to put a lot of effort into stopping the run, and forcing Jay Cutler to beat them with injured ribs. And I'd imagine when they get the Bears into passing situations, they will try to make Cutler beat them by throwing to someone other than Brandon Marshall. Normally, I'd say this is a good chance to get others involved in the passing game, but they aren't good enough to stop Marshall with all the attention anyway. Carolina's pass D has been below average this year, but they haven't been that bad. They play a lot of Cover 2 and have done a good job of not letting WRs get behind them for big plays. What they have allowed though is teams to dink and dunk them all the way down the field. Look for the Bears to throw a lot on first down, especially with safe throws and screens to the outside or to Forte as the checkdown. This will eventually open up the run game for Forte, or beat the Panthers into submission.
This is the game to get the Bears passing game on a roll. If the Bears can get the passing game going, with a top 10 rushing attack and the league's best defense, this team is a Superbowl favorite, not just a contender. If the offense gets going, frankly, this game shouldn't be close.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Week 6- Bears vs. Lions, Game Preview
Bye weeks suck! Not playing football on Sunday afternoon also sucks! But I do take solace in the fact that the Bears are 6-1 on Monday Night Football under Jay Cutler. Lovie is actually 9-2 on MNF as Bears coach, with only 3 of them (3-0) being in Chicago. And I like the fact that the Bears get 14-days off before facing a division opponent at home.
In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense. It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season. In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight. Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same. The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%. Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling.
Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run. However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense. Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games). And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs. I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath. Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past. Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall. I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week.
On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford. The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4. It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week. But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player. Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson. Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed? Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top. Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron. If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle. The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry. In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench. Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.
Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season. Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none. Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week. With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two. Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year. Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more. Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in. I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.
I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough. This may be the Lions season on the line. A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them. Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race. But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this. Now just gotta go get it done!
In a similar spot last season, the Bears went to Philly last year on a Monday night after their bye week and put up a strong performance and a 30-point outburst on offense. It was the first of 3 straight 30-point games before Jay Cutler went down for the season. In 2010, after the bye week, the Bears also peaked as an offense, winning 5 straight. Coming out of the bye again, I'm hoping for more of the same. The offense has had a chance to practice in a training camp like setting, and should be able to work in more of Hester and Davis, while getting Forte and Bennett up to 100%. Though Alshon Jeffery is out, Mike Tice should be ready and able to open up the full playbook and get this offense rolling.
Matt Forte has had a lot of success vs. the Lions D, but this year, the Lions are actually pretty decent against the run. However, they are still their usual bottom 1/3 of the league in pass defense. Getting Earl Bennett back could be huge as he's had a couple of big games vs. the Lions the last 2 years (missed the other 2 games). And this year's version of the Lions have struggled, allowing a lot of catches to slot WRs. I figure the Bears will run Devin Hester down the field a lot to give Marshall and Bennett more room underneath. Lions have also given up a lot to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kellen Davis better stay on his feet this week and Forte has a shot to put up pretty big numbers like he did in year's past. Oh and then there's Brandon Marshall. I like the offense's chances to move the ball this week.
On defense, not much mystery...the Bears need to get after Stafford. The Bears have been great at rushing the passer with multiple sacks from most of the regulars that rotate in and out of the front 4. It will be interesting to see how much the 2 weeks off has helped Brian Urlacher, who looked to be a little healthier every week. But frankly, the Bears D has been an elite unit without much help from their leader and former best player. Also, goes without saying, it will be interesting to see how the Bears deal with Calvin Johnson. Do they go with Tillman's size or Jennings' speed? Either way, I expect a lot of Chris Conte help over the top. Watch out for the Bears to take a page out of the book that stymied them in Green Bay, by playing a lot of 2-man box coverage on Megatron. If Tillman is lined up vs. Johnson, I'd like to see him press off the line and jump any short route, knowing he has Conte behind him to make a tackle. The problem is if Conte is too aggressive, Johnson can get by him in a hurry. In the loss in Detroit last year, Conte was watching from the bench. Being a former CB, he should have a decent feel to turn and (try to) run with Johnson when necessary.
Lastly, there have been 11 return TDs so far this season. Surprisingly, Devin Hester has none. Hester has had a lot of success against the Lions, but I actually want to see some Eric Weems this week. With Hester presumably getting many more snaps at WR this week, and suffering from a slight quad injury, I'd like to see Weems back there on kickoffs and maybe a punt or two. Hester is still the best in the game, but teams have been pretty geared up to stop him this year. Weems is a fine returner in his own right, and hits the hole/wedge harder than Hester, who tries to pick his spots more. Maybe the Bears can get the Lions to relax not seeing #23 back deep and allow Weems to get a couple strong returns in. I'd also watch for Weems on offense, as he has some ability to take the top off the defense, especially in playaction and with Marshall on the opposite side.
I'd like to think the Bears win this game, but it's going to be tough. This may be the Lions season on the line. A loss and they are looking at 2-4, looking up at a 5-1 Bears team that has already beaten them. Win and the Lions could go on a 5-game win streak before they face the Packers, and are right back in the division race. But statistically, playing at home, coming off a bye, mostly healthy, the Bears should win this. Now just gotta go get it done!
Saturday, October 13, 2012
2013 NFL Draft, Top 50 Prospects
With the Bears on a bye week, I decided it was a good time to get back to the main reason this blog was started, THE DRAFT!
I have compiled my list of the top 50 prospects eligible for the upcoming draft, minus a few players I think will/should stay in school for another year. Without further ado....here's the list, with brief summaries of each player.
I have compiled my list of the top 50 prospects eligible for the upcoming draft, minus a few players I think will/should stay in school for another year. Without further ado....here's the list, with brief summaries of each player.
| 1 | Jarvis Jones | OLB | Georgia | could be elite pass rusher or next Lawrence Timmons |
| 2 | Star Lotulelei | DT | Utah | big, strong, athletic. Not quite Ngata, but very good |
| 3 | Jonathan Hankins | DT | Ohio St | not much pass rush, but immovable object inside |
| 4 | Barkevious Mingo | OLB | LSU | athletic, better vs. run than expected. Star potential |
| 5 | Geno Smith | QB | WVU | Aaron Rodgers-like precision, great deep ball, leader |
| 6 | Matt Barkley | QB | USC | better than Leinart/Sanchez, but needs team around him |
| 7 | Justin Hunter | WR | Tennessee | looks like a faster Sidney Rice coming out, similar knee issues too |
| 8 | Eric Reid | FS | LSU | not the elite S prospect like Berry was, but eventual pro-bowler |
| 9 | Keenan Allen | WR | California | 3-step, 5-step, gets open. Versatile WR, fits into several roles |
| 10 | Tyler Wilson | QB | Arkansas | Cutler II? Gunslinger, fits ball into coverage, needs protection |
| 11 | Chance Warmack | OG | Alabama | Prototype. Big, mobile, if he improves feet, its over for NFL DTs |
| 12 | Johnathan Banks | CB | Miss St | NFL WRs are getting bigger, this guy can matchup size/speed |
| 13 | Tyler Bray | QB | Tennessee | accuracy issues or not, 6'6" w/ rocket arm doesn't grow on trees |
| 14 | Manti Te'o | LB | Notre Dame | playing pass D now? 3-down total package LB, inside 3-4 or 4-3 |
| 15 | Dee Milliner | CB | Alabama | Size, speed, physical, only ? Is can he play w/o dominant front 7 |
| 16 | Barrett Jones | OG | Alabama | Not a true stud, but 8-10 year starter at any of C, LG, RG, even LT |
| 17 | Sam Montgomery | DE | LSU | higher to some, but needs to add weight, "get off", HUGE upside |
| 18 | Xavier Rhodes | CB | Florida St | press coverage CB, almost exclusively. Good tape vs. top WRs |
| 19 | Marcus Lattimore | RB | S Carolina | Knee injury stinks, but #1 HS recruit of '10 is clone of Arian Foster |
| 20 | Luke Joeckel | OT | Texas A&M | Starting LT since Frosh yr, had success vs. a lot of NFL DE talent |
| 21 | Bjoern Werner | DE | Florida St | Athletic, motor, upside. Perfect 4-3 DE size, can't play 3-4 though |
| 22 | Robert Woods | WR | USC | Not seeing Marvin Harrison comps, but good player, scary in slot |
| 23 | David Amerson | CB/FS | NC State | think he's an NFL FS. FS with coverage skills still worth high pick |
| 24 | Jonathan Cooper | OG | UNC | Solid, 4-year starter, rarely misses assignments at DL or LB level |
| 25 | Tyler Eifert | TE | Notre Dame | Excellent receiver. 6'6", can run, who cares if he can block? |
| 26 | Kawaan Short | DT | Purdue | Dominates at times, but can disappear. Conditioning is key |
| 27 | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan | Looks the part, but very raw. Nastier version Nate Solder |
| 28 | John Jenkins | DT | Georgia | Immovable object. Won't put up stats, but occupies 2 OL all times |
| 29 | Terrance Williams | WR | Baylor | Not a #1 WR, but strong 2, who can stretch the field. Hands? |
| 30 | Jackson Jeffcoat | DE | Texas | Fast, edge rusher, more OLB than 4-3 DE at this point, can add lbs |
| 31 | Corey Lemonier | OLB | Auburn | Least athletic, but most consistent producer of deep OLB/DE class |
| 32 | Alex Okafor | DE | Texas | More NFL ready than teammate, more 4-3 DE, plays solid run D |
| 33 | Dallas Thomas | OG/OT | Tennessee | Good feet and hand placement, moved to LG after 3 years @ LT |
| 34 | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M | Athletic, needs to get bigger/stronger, but dad is HOF OT, I'm sold! |
| 35 | Sharrif Floyd | DT | Florida | Uses hands really well, quick enough to play some DE, Melton 2.0? |
| 36 | DJ Fluker | OT | Alabama | Either a RT or big LG ala Gallery, at next level to me, very strong |
| 37 | William Gholston | DE | Michigan St | Poor man's Quinton Coples, shows flashes, but needs more |
| 38 | Matt Elam | S | Florida | Little size & speed, but plays big in box. Best cover S in draft. |
| 39 | Michael Buchanan | DE | Illinois | A blur off the edge, flashed while watching Mercilus. Run D is ? |
| 40 | TJ McDonald | S | USC | Versatile S, with NFL bloodlines, experience in pro style D |
| 41 | Khaled Holmes | OC | USC | Athletic, tough C in the mold of the Pounceys, not quite as good |
| 42 | Alec Ogletree | LB | Georgia | Long, fast LB can play inside or outside in 30 or 40 front, climber |
| 43 | Brennan Williams | OT | UNC | Son of NFL DT, strong run blocking RT, can work on footwork |
| 44 | Kenny Vaccaro | S | Texas | Playmaking S who can really run and cover, can work on tackling |
| 45 | Sylvester Williams | DT | UNC | 4-3 or 3-4 NT, good motor, not much of a pass rusher |
| 46 | Oday Aboushi | OT | Virginia | Raw, with lots of LT upside. If feet don't come, could play LG |
| 47 | Dion Jordan | DE | Oregon | long (6-7) lean athlete, who can bend, can get stronger at POA |
| 48 | Kevin Reddick | LB | UNC | Laterally gifted LB, could play inside or strong in 4-3. Can cover |
| 49 | Sean Porter | OLB | Texas A&M | Not the next Von Miller, but could be 4-3 Sam LB, blitz at times |
| 50 | Tavon Austin | WR | WVU | slot WR, kick returner, productive. Harvin, Antonio Brown type |
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Week 5- Bears @ Jaguars, Game Preview
Lovie is known for breaking the season down in quarters, by each set of 4 games. Well, the Bears got out of the 1st quarter of the season in pretty good shape. At 3-1, the Bears are about where I expected them to be. Won the 2 games at home against teams they were clearly superior to. Beat the Cowboys sounded on the road. Only loss was losing the home opener for the Packers on a short week. Granted, I was pretty optimistic about the GB game given both team's openers, but that wasn't a game that was circled on the schedule as one the Bears "had to have".
The 2nd quarter of the season starts, and while I don't like to look ahead, 3-1 looks again to be worst acceptable case scenario. Four straight 1-win teams on the schedule. On paper, the Detroit game looks to be the toughest, but that is a home game with the Bears having 14 days off before welcoming the Lions back to a place they got annihilated last year. A home game the following week is sandwiched by road games at Tennessee in Week 9, and this week in Jacksonville.
Many are going to point to this game as a potential letdown game because of the short week and bye coming up. But if there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to happen defensively. The defense hasn't had to completely carry the team like in years past, but they have done their part in keeping the offense in the game in Green Bay and vs. the Rams until they got going (or didn't in Week 2's case). Monday night, the D provided all the momentum plays with 2 TDs and a big turnover in the redzone when the Cowboys looked to make it a 1-score game again. A couple years ago, the Bears beat the Eagles in a national televised game of what most thought were two evenly matched teams. The Bears won the game, but then kind of went thru the motions the next week vs. the 2-9 Lions. The defense didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. And backup QB, Drew Stanton had a 102 QB rating.
However, even a "going thru the motions" game by the D should be good enough to beat the Jags. For one, the offense should be able to move the ball and put up enough points to beat a Jags teams that has struggled to score points for several years now. Secondly, the Bears defense is really, really tough to score on. The Bears have allowed 68 points this season. But you have to take out 14 allowed by a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and the fake FG TD in Green Bay. That leaves 54 points in 4 games. While that is good, consider that the Bears have given up their share of points in garbage time. The Colts scored their last TD when down 20 points in the 4th quarter. The "great" Packers offense got a last second FG before halftime, as did the Rams. The Cowboys scored 15 of their 18 points in the last 35 seconds of each half. The Bears defense has allowed a grand total of 33 points in the first 29 minutes of the 8 halves of football they've played this season. 9 of those 33 have come on FGs over 45 yards, 7 came on a 1-play, 26 yard drive in the GB game after a Cutler INT, and the aforementioned 7 came with the Bears up 20 on the Colts.
On defense (and I hope the Bears coaches are taking note here), the Bears might just see a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. It's no secret the Jags will try to get the ball to MJD in the run game, in the pass game, they will do everything they can to test Urlacher's health. And while Gabbert is the least productive QB in the league (again), he doesn't make a ton of mistakes (hard to mess up a check down throw), so the Bears shouldn't count on padding their league leading 11 INTs much. Gabbert though, won't always check down. I expect him to take a couple shots deep in Cecil Shorts' direction, especially if the Bears start to commit Wright and/or Conte in the box to stop MJD. Shorts is a big play threat with 1/2 of his 6 catches going for 20+ this year, including a game-winning 80-yarder vs. the Colts. Then again, the Bears also are among the league leaders in sacks, and the Jags can't pass block very well so deep shots may not even be possible for Blaine. With Laurent Robinson out, the Bears will likely allow Charles Tillman to follow Justin Blackmon around the field and get physical with the Jags' 2012 first round pick. Blackmon showed vs. a much smaller Leonard Johnson, last year vs. Iowa St that he can struggle with tough coverage. It doesn't get much tougher than Peanut.
On offense, the inconsistent Bears offense faces a defense that doesn't do very much well. They don't rush the pass well, with only 2 sacks so far on the season. They have only caused 4 turnovers in 4 games. And they are 30th in the league in run defense. Not going to provide much insight this week, but basically the offense has to take what the Jags give them. If they sell out to help that porous run D, then the passing game will be wide open. If they try to drop back in their typical 2-deep coverage, Forte and Bush will eventually gash them in the run game. If they blitz, they don't have anyone that can cover Marshall or Jeffery's size or Devin Hester's speed.
Not necessarily expecting a blowout this week, as the stature of the two teams suggest. But the Bears should be able to win this game. It'll probably be another boring game like the Rams. If the Bears come out flat, the Jags may be able to score a couple times, but I don't see many scenarios where they get more than 17 points offensively (with that being the very high end). And if the Bears offense doesn't completely crap the bed or allow defensive scores, the Bears should be able to win. Whether they beat the spread (-5.5) or not depends on if the offense completely clicks or just does enough like the Rams game.
The 2nd quarter of the season starts, and while I don't like to look ahead, 3-1 looks again to be worst acceptable case scenario. Four straight 1-win teams on the schedule. On paper, the Detroit game looks to be the toughest, but that is a home game with the Bears having 14 days off before welcoming the Lions back to a place they got annihilated last year. A home game the following week is sandwiched by road games at Tennessee in Week 9, and this week in Jacksonville.
Many are going to point to this game as a potential letdown game because of the short week and bye coming up. But if there is any letdown with this team, I expect it to happen defensively. The defense hasn't had to completely carry the team like in years past, but they have done their part in keeping the offense in the game in Green Bay and vs. the Rams until they got going (or didn't in Week 2's case). Monday night, the D provided all the momentum plays with 2 TDs and a big turnover in the redzone when the Cowboys looked to make it a 1-score game again. A couple years ago, the Bears beat the Eagles in a national televised game of what most thought were two evenly matched teams. The Bears won the game, but then kind of went thru the motions the next week vs. the 2-9 Lions. The defense didn't force any turnovers and allowed the Lions to convert 6 of 14 third downs (1 of 2 fourth downs), only forcing ONE 3-and-out the entire game. They didn't get a ton of pressure in that game. A poor running team was able to get 5 yards a pop against them. And backup QB, Drew Stanton had a 102 QB rating.
However, even a "going thru the motions" game by the D should be good enough to beat the Jags. For one, the offense should be able to move the ball and put up enough points to beat a Jags teams that has struggled to score points for several years now. Secondly, the Bears defense is really, really tough to score on. The Bears have allowed 68 points this season. But you have to take out 14 allowed by a Cutler pick 6 in the opener and the fake FG TD in Green Bay. That leaves 54 points in 4 games. While that is good, consider that the Bears have given up their share of points in garbage time. The Colts scored their last TD when down 20 points in the 4th quarter. The "great" Packers offense got a last second FG before halftime, as did the Rams. The Cowboys scored 15 of their 18 points in the last 35 seconds of each half. The Bears defense has allowed a grand total of 33 points in the first 29 minutes of the 8 halves of football they've played this season. 9 of those 33 have come on FGs over 45 yards, 7 came on a 1-play, 26 yard drive in the GB game after a Cutler INT, and the aforementioned 7 came with the Bears up 20 on the Colts.
On defense (and I hope the Bears coaches are taking note here), the Bears might just see a lot of Maurice Jones-Drew. It's no secret the Jags will try to get the ball to MJD in the run game, in the pass game, they will do everything they can to test Urlacher's health. And while Gabbert is the least productive QB in the league (again), he doesn't make a ton of mistakes (hard to mess up a check down throw), so the Bears shouldn't count on padding their league leading 11 INTs much. Gabbert though, won't always check down. I expect him to take a couple shots deep in Cecil Shorts' direction, especially if the Bears start to commit Wright and/or Conte in the box to stop MJD. Shorts is a big play threat with 1/2 of his 6 catches going for 20+ this year, including a game-winning 80-yarder vs. the Colts. Then again, the Bears also are among the league leaders in sacks, and the Jags can't pass block very well so deep shots may not even be possible for Blaine. With Laurent Robinson out, the Bears will likely allow Charles Tillman to follow Justin Blackmon around the field and get physical with the Jags' 2012 first round pick. Blackmon showed vs. a much smaller Leonard Johnson, last year vs. Iowa St that he can struggle with tough coverage. It doesn't get much tougher than Peanut.
On offense, the inconsistent Bears offense faces a defense that doesn't do very much well. They don't rush the pass well, with only 2 sacks so far on the season. They have only caused 4 turnovers in 4 games. And they are 30th in the league in run defense. Not going to provide much insight this week, but basically the offense has to take what the Jags give them. If they sell out to help that porous run D, then the passing game will be wide open. If they try to drop back in their typical 2-deep coverage, Forte and Bush will eventually gash them in the run game. If they blitz, they don't have anyone that can cover Marshall or Jeffery's size or Devin Hester's speed.
Not necessarily expecting a blowout this week, as the stature of the two teams suggest. But the Bears should be able to win this game. It'll probably be another boring game like the Rams. If the Bears come out flat, the Jags may be able to score a couple times, but I don't see many scenarios where they get more than 17 points offensively (with that being the very high end). And if the Bears offense doesn't completely crap the bed or allow defensive scores, the Bears should be able to win. Whether they beat the spread (-5.5) or not depends on if the offense completely clicks or just does enough like the Rams game.
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