Week 2- Bears @ Packers, Game Preview

Well, my keys didn't really factor that much in Week 1.  The Bears didn't run that much or that well up the middle vs. the undersized Colts D.  The return game wasn't a huge factor.  But the Bears did dominate for the most part as I expected.  Now comes PACKER WEEK.  Not that this wasn't going to be a pivotal game for the NFC North anyway, but the Bears have a huge chance here to put themselves in the driver's seat.  With the Lions playing the Niners, who already beat the Packers....a Bears win puts them at 2-0, with the Packers at 0-2.  The Bears would have the only division win, and it would be on the road.  The Lions and Packers will also already have common game losses to the 49ers, meaning a Bears win over San Francisco later in the year would be like gaining another game in the division and conference......But I am getting way ahead of myself.  First things first, gotta beat the Cheeseheads.

I'm probably way more confident about this game than I should be.  After all, the Packers have pretty much dominated the Bears since their previous QB retired....came back...retired again....came back with another team.....retired......came back again with another team.....retired....came back...and then was knocked into retirement for good.  But while Aaron Rodgers is 7-2 vs. the Bears, he's never put up quite the numbers against them as he has against other teams.  And this isn't your father's Chicago Bears team. 

The Packers have frankly, had their way with the Bears WRs in the past by being physical.  I know this has been touched on in the media this week, but the Packers were truly able to push Johnny Knox and Devin Hester around as the 1-2 WRs on the outside.  Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, and Charles Woodson were able to fight through Knox and Hester to break up slant patterns, they were able press them down the field and out muscle them for the ball for either an INT or an incompletion.  Already, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have shown that they are not Johnny Knox on the outside.  If you look back on the 3rd preseason game vs. the Giants, Jay Cutler threw to both Marshall and Jeffery on separate occasions when they were completely covered by CB, Michael Coe.  Both times, Coe jumped the route for what would have been possible pick 6's last year...but both plays resulted in completed passes as Marshall and Jeffery refused to be out muscled for the ball.  Now, the Packers have Sam Shields coming off the bench, with Charles Woodson at SS.  Jarrett Bush is starting at CB opposite of Williams, and he should be a safety also.  The 31st ranked pass defense has gotten worse, in my opinion, and the Bears passing game has gotten remarkably better in a single offseason.  Not only that, but the Packers have yet to face Gabe Carimi.  Carimi was lost for the season, before last year's Week 3 matchup.  This is significant because Carimi will be facing off with the Packers' lone pass rusher in their front 7, Clay Matthews.  Not that I expect Gabe to completely handle Matthews, but it should be a monumental improvement over Frank Omiyale (aka Frank OMG) and Lance Louis playing out of position at RT.  I now welcome the blitz from Woodson, as now Cutler should be able to make the hot read without a CB being able to jump the route. The Packers would be best served by throwing out any game tape they have on the Bears the last 3 years, because it's not going to do them any good this year. 

As for the defense, the Bears definitely have some work to do compared to past seasons.  The possibility of Greg Jennings being out obviously works in the Bears favor.  However, I was looking forward to seeing if the Week 1 version of Tim Jennings could carry over into Lambeau vs. Greg Jennings.  Tim got basically eaten alive by Greg in a couple games the last 2 years, and was bench for the Week 16 game vs. GB last year.  Because of that, I expect Tim Jennings to really show up tomorrow (whether he faces Jennings or James Jones) and have another productive game.  If Jennings is out, that also puts either Charles Tillman (if he plays) or Kelvin Hayden on Jordy Nelson, another matchup that I really like.  Nelson hasn't done very much against the Bears other than Week 16 when he saw a lot of Zach Bowman, who isn't very good.  So, to me, the key matchups will be in the middle of the field.  I like DJ Moore vs. Donald Driver in the slot, and about 50x more than I like Moore vs. Jennings when he lines up in the slot as he often does in the 3-4wide set.  But the Bears have never been able to defend Jermichael Finley.  This year probably won't be any different.  Another issue for the defense may also be Randall Cobb.  Cobb was essentially used as the Packers 3rd down RB vs. SF last week and had a pretty good game getting matched up on some really good LBs for the Niners.  The Bears LBs are great, but not as fast as they once were and not as fast as the 49ers group.  If Greg Jennings is out, this would allow the Bears to put Tim Jennings on one side with Tillman/Hayden on the other.  I like both of those matchups for the Bears.  It would also put Driver as the primary slot WR.  I think Driver's lack of speed would allow the Bears to use DJ Moore exclusively to spy on Cobb out of the backfield.  Hopefully, that would mean Briggs, Urlacher, and Wright for Jermichael Finley, Driver in the slot, and Rodgers outside the pocket, with Chris Conte as the single high safety.  You're not going to stop all the weapons that GB has, but with Jennings out, the Bears may be able to take away the outside somewhat and make the Packers put all their eggs in the Finley basket.  The Bears have enough offense now to beat the Packers even if Finley dominates, provided they can limit the outside WRs.

In the NFL's oldest rivalry, there aren't many secrets.  But I feel that the Bears have more that the Packers haven't seen than vice versa.  The Bears had very little turnover on their roster, yet the Packers have never seen Carimi, Marshall, Jeffery, even Chris Conte (who was not a starter Week 3 and missed Week 16's game) suited up for the Bears.  It's always difficult to win a road game within the division.  Even tougher when it's a primetime game.  But I think the Bears can again rattle Rodgers a little, while being able to counterpunch now on offense, and I truly feel the Bears will come out of Lambeau with a W.