Week 10, BEARS vs. Texans, Game Preview

Well, halfway thru the season and the Bears are in the midst of almost a best case scenario.  7-1 with the league's best point differential.  But frankly, this is where the Bears should be with the schedule they've had.  But the cupcakes are all done.  The Bears don't face another team with a losing record right now until Week 16 in Arizona.  And they open the 3rd quarter of the season with a tough, mirror image matchup vs. the Houston Texans.

A matchup I'm really looking forward to when the Texans have the ball is Charles "Peanut" Tillman vs. Andre Johnson.  The last time these 2 teams met was Week 17, the 2008 Bears were 9-6 and needed a win in Houston to get into the playoffs.  But Johnson, primarily covered by Tillman, went off for 10 catches, 148 yards and 2 TDs, including ripping a TD pass away from the Bears big, physical CB.  But that was then, this is now.  Johnson has been slowed down by injuries and isn't the best WR in the league the way he was in '08, but he's still pretty good.  Tillman was pretty good then, but was not the potential defensive MVP back then either.  Not that I'm expecting Peanut to force Johnson to fumble 4 times this game, but it should be a really good matchup with Tillman having won a similar matchup already this year vs. Calvin Johnson.  If the Bears can come out on the right side of this matchup, the Texans don't have too much else to go to.  Their 2nd WR is Kevin Walter, and even with the size advantage, I'll take Tim Jennings in that matchup, especially if Tillman can allow the Bears to give him safety help.  The Texans get almost nothing else from any other WR, with only 8 catches from the rest of the WR depth chart.  The key will be how the Bears handle the combo of  FB-James Casey, and TEs Garrett Graham and Owen Daniels, who may just be Schaub's favorite target.  Chris Conte looked very good in coverage against the Titans TEs, and if he can carry that over to Week 10, it's going to be tough for Houston to throw the ball against the Bears, especially down the field.  Arian Foster has been a good receiver in the past, but hasn't done much out of the backfield so far in 2012. 

Speaking of Foster.....for a team that is considered a pretty good running team, the Texans actually aren't anything special running the ball.  While the Texans are 8th in the league in rushing yards per game, they are only averaging a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry, good for 18th in the league.  That's in the same class as teams like the Colts, Bengals and Lions.  They also don't break a ton of big runs.  Arian Foster only has 4 runs of 20+ yards, included in his league leading 192 total carries.  In comparison, Forte has 3 runs over 20 in 109 carries.  What Houston does do is hit you with volume in the run game.  The Texans lead the league in time of possession.  Because of all the 2-tight sets and sets they run with a FB, the Texans have been able to get teams to commit a lot of bodies into the box, creating playaction heaven for Schaub.  The Bears, however, are the league's best team vs. the playaction, allowing just 45% completions after run fakes.  This is mainly due to the discipline and quickness of the Bears LBs to react, and also the fact that the CBs and safeties don't have to be in a hurry to help the front 7 stop the run. 

On the other side of the ball, the Texans have their own defensive POTY candidate, JJ Watt.  An interesting matchup will be Gabe Carimi vs. Watt, in a battle of former Wisconsin teammates.  Hopefully, Carimi learned a few things in practice on how to block Watt, because nobody else has been able to.  And Carimi, honestly hasn't been able to hold off many pass rushers so far this year.  But Carimi will mostly see Watt in the run game (lines up over the RT in run downs).  In the passing game, Watt will see a lot of Lance Louis, as he typically lines up at more of a 4-3 DT in their nickel package.  I kind of like this matchup.  Louis will get pretty physical with him and won't be pushed back into the pocket the way Watt has done most of his opponents this year.  The Bears will still have a lot of trouble, though, blocking the edge rush.  And with the Texans being one of the toughest teams to run on, the quick passing game is going to be the Bears best hope for moving the ball.  Jonathan Joseph is very beatable, especially when you're talking about Brandon Marshall on the opposite end.  I also like Bennett vs. their nickel, Brice McCain, but that's going to require time to throw to fully utilize him.

Long story short, nobody's going to be lighting up the scoreboard Sunday night.  The Bears offense has had it's struggles.  The Houston offense is efficient, but doesn't have many weapons.  They also don't make many mistakes allowing the Bears D to take advantage either.  The key for the Bears is going to be to play mistake free football.  None of the stupid false starts on the OL.  Cutler has to protect that ball when he gets pressured, which he will often.  And the Bears have to stay disciplined in their gap defense and in their run/pass keys during playaction situations.  Where the Bears do have a huge advantage is special teams.  Houston is middle of the pack in kickoff coverage, but have allowed the 2nd most KO returns in a touchback heavy era of football.  They are also bottom 10 in punt return average allowed, and have not faced a returner like Devin Hester.  So, in a game where all else looks to be pretty equal, the Bears ability to make a special teams play could be the difference in the game.