Week 13 BEARS vs. Seahawks, Game Preview

The complete homer in me has been pretty confident in the Bears winning every game so far, and I have been right 73% of the time.  Yet, somehow I'm very worried about this game.  The Seahawks have won just 7 road games in the last 3.75 seasons, 3 of them division games against bad Arizona and St. Louis teams, 1 was this year vs. a bad Carolina team.  But 2 of the 7 have come in Chicago.  Granted, 1 of those was last year against a Caleb Hanie led Bears team, but Seattle did dominate on all phases in that game. 

A lot of the faces are different for Seattle's offense, but not much has changed overall.  Russell Wilson is a similar player to Tavaris Jackson, who the Bears faced last season.  Still have Lynch at RB, Tate at WR, Miller at TE, and Robinson at FB.  Only difference (other than a similar QB) is Sidney Rice instead of Mike Williams at the other WR.  Like Jackson did in the game last year, Wilson will spread the ball around to a variety of targets.  In 11 games, Wilson has targeted at least 9 different receivers in 8 of those.  While the Bears typically do a pretty decent job at taking away a team's top option not named Steve Smith (Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson for example this year), they have struggled in the last few years when a team has a variety of guys they can throw to.  Not that Seattle has anybody that strikes fear into defenses, but they can put several respectable receiving options on the field at the same time to give the Bears a lot to have to worry about.

The Bears have typically had success against Marshawn Lynch, holding him to just 88 yards on 39 carries in 3 career games.  I expect more of the same this week.  But where the defense has to step up is keeping Russell Wilson in the pocket.  It's no secret, Wilson is short and has trouble seeing over his OL.  It's also no secret that he can really move and can throw well out of the pocket, often improvising plays on the fly.  The Bears have had mixed results in the past against mobile QBs.  And they have to balance getting a pass rush with keeping contain, especially at the left DE position where Wilson really likes to roll to his right.  The Bears have played straight up most of the year with 27 of their 30 sacks coming from the DLine.  But I wouldn't mind seeing the rookie QB blitzed on occasion with either edge rushes (i.e. CB, S, nickel blitz) or the typical double A-gap blitz by Urlacher and Briggs (or a standing McClellin) with Peppers sitting outside the pocket to catch him if he flushes. I expect the defense to be healthy with Briggs and Tillman both ready to go by Sunday, though neither practiced today.

On offense, the injuries are a little worrisome.  Another week, another OL change.  This one forced due to an injury by a Jared Allen cheapshot.  Forte and Hester are also hurting this week.  In years past, I would be devastated by the prospect of Forte missing a game.  But at this point, the Bears need to get the passing game going and Cutler is going to be the deciding factor of whether they get to a Superbowl or not.  Bush should be fine in the short term running the ball and being a target out of the backfield.  Back to the OL...it looks like Carimi will get his first NFL start at RG.  I expect a Seahawks team who doesn't mind blitzing to do a lot to try to confuse the kid playing out of position.  I'm expecting blitzes right at him.  I'm expecting T/E stunts to try to get Carimi to miss an assignment.  With a new RT next to Gabe, communication will be key.  A lot of TE and RB chipping help will be sent to the right side.  That could leave J'Marcus Webb on speedster, Bruce Irvin.   Irvin presents some of the same problems that Aldon Smith provided for the Bears in San Francisco.  He's a long-armed speed rusher that can get the edge in a hurry.  The Bears have to account for him.

On the outside, there are going to be more tough matchups for the Bears.  The Seahawks probably have the league's best secondary.  Seattle isn't going to be afraid to leave Browner and Sherman alone on Marshall and bring some heat on Cutler. When they don't blitz, they will likely have either of their 6'3" CBs mentioned above, with 6'3" Kam Chancellor over the top.  That's a coverage the Bears have seen plenty of with Marshall, but have never seen it with 2 guys that are his height.  Seattle is going to try to make Cutler throw the ball to someone else, and nobody else for the Bears has consistently shown up on a weekly basis.  I'd like to see Sanzenbacher get in the mix some from the slot as he could create problems for the Hawks there if they focus a lot on Marshall.  We briefly saw Evan Rodriguez and Matt Spaeth get some love vs. the Vikings, and they are going to need to be involved again.  The checkdown to whatever RB is playing will also be a necessary weapon.  But most of all, Tice has to call the right plays to allow this team to have success against a tough defense.  Last week, we saw a little bit of it with Cutler on the move a little bit.  We also saw some slants and crossing routes that I've been calling for.  No matter how good the CB is, no CB in the NFL can guard a WR running laterally in man coverage for a long period of time.  Anyone not named Marshall isn't likely to catch anything outside of the numbers this weekend, so the middle of the field has to be active.

As I said, I don't like this game very much on paper.  I think the Bears have a slight edge on defense with the ability to get turnovers.  And I think the Bears typically have an edge on offense.  But injuries are a big equalizer.  Hester and Spencer are already ruled out.  Jeffery's out.  Carimi is playing RG for the first time, maybe in his life.  A new RT is playing against a couple solid edge rushers.  Forte is not 100%.  The Seahawks are also a very desperate team at this point.  They are in a log jam for the last wildcard spot and winning this game would go a long way toward giving them that spot.  And they have to show they can win a road game.  But clearly this is a winnable game for the Bears.  Losing it won't kill them, as they still have 3 winnable games out of 4, and get the Packers at home.  But a win, and the playoffs are a near lock, and at that point the Bears would be looking at the possibility of a 1st round bye.